We all know predictions are part guess work. But they're also part fact-based. The best predictions are supported by what we already know.
The challenge, then, is to figure out what we're supposed to know, and then go learn it. No easy two-step process, especially when "what we're supposed to know" is never one thing, and it never leads to concrete conclusions.
Yesterday a reader asked me which of his QBs--or a QB available on waivers--he should roll with in this week's title game. There are several solid options. Ryan Fitzpatrick jumped out at me. He's facing the Bengals at home. The offense is clicking. In his last nine games he's averaged 18.5 fantasy points. Across a full season that would make him a low-end QB1--not bad for waiver fodder.
But there's more to consider. Miami's running game has been, and remains, a mess. Their lead back, Patrick Laird, is averaging 3.0 YPC. The not-used-enough Myles Gaskin has looked competent, yet isn't getting enough looks to be reliable.
Before responding to this reader, I wanted to dig up a little more, and the question I kept coming back to was "Who's getting the ball near the goal line?" Basically, in a fantasy world where success and failure sometimes hinge on goal-line looks, what can we learn from Miami's play-calling?
Inside their opponents' 10-yard-line, Ryan Fitzpatrick has run it or thrown it 22 times. In that same part of the field, Laird and Gaskin have touched the ball only a combined six times--and two of those came on Fitzpatrick throws. Inside the 5, the Dolphins called plays for Fitzpatrick 10 times, and only a combined three times for Laird and Gaskin.
In other words, when the team is knocking on an opponent's doorstep, Fitz--not his mostly untested backfield--is getting the scoring opportunities.
It's one data set. It doesn't suggest anything close to guaranteed Week 16 goal-line usage. Trends are trends until they're not. So if you want to gamble on this trend continuing, given their sub-par running game, I believe it's a gamble worth taking. ---
A quick look around the league: The NFL has suspended Josh Gordon indefinitely. I've written this before after similar Gordon suspensions: It's nothing but sad. His last NFL catch--or what might end up being his last NFL catch--was a beautiful thing.
It's been reported that Will Grier has a good shot at starting for Carolina this week. Sometimes change is good. If you're leaning on D.J. Moore or hoping to strike gold with Curtis Samuel, this would not be a welcome change with your fantasy season on the line.
D.J. Chark could be back this week, pushing Chris Conley back down to a #3 receiver in a bottom-third pass attack--not someone to keep rostered.
Odell Beckham, Jr. apparently isn't the only Cleveland Brown who might want out this offseason. Reportedly Jarvis Landry and other teammates vocalized as much to Arizona's sideline over the weekend. While I don't want to see Cleveland return to oblivion only one season after returning from it, what an incredible storyline this would be, and what a huge fantasy impact it would have if OBJ and Landry went elsewhere in 2020. I will say this: barring significant improvements, this team won't compete with Baltimore or a healthy Pittsburgh squad led by Ben Roethlisberger and JuJu Smith-Schuster. If they have a rough September, I can see management breaking them up and retooling for 2021 or 2022.
Finally, yesterday there was a comment about whether to pick up Alexander Mattison or Mike Boone. Here's how I'd approach it: If Mattison's good to go, there's almost no way he's carrying the load. Cook will lead if he's healthy, and Boone will share if Cook's out. So the smart play is to go Boone: If Cook and Mattison sit, you have an RB2+. Otherwise, you're no worse off than if you grabbed Mattison.
The challenge, then, is to figure out what we're supposed to know, and then go learn it. No easy two-step process, especially when "what we're supposed to know" is never one thing, and it never leads to concrete conclusions.
Yesterday a reader asked me which of his QBs--or a QB available on waivers--he should roll with in this week's title game. There are several solid options. Ryan Fitzpatrick jumped out at me. He's facing the Bengals at home. The offense is clicking. In his last nine games he's averaged 18.5 fantasy points. Across a full season that would make him a low-end QB1--not bad for waiver fodder.
But there's more to consider. Miami's running game has been, and remains, a mess. Their lead back, Patrick Laird, is averaging 3.0 YPC. The not-used-enough Myles Gaskin has looked competent, yet isn't getting enough looks to be reliable.
Before responding to this reader, I wanted to dig up a little more, and the question I kept coming back to was "Who's getting the ball near the goal line?" Basically, in a fantasy world where success and failure sometimes hinge on goal-line looks, what can we learn from Miami's play-calling?
Inside their opponents' 10-yard-line, Ryan Fitzpatrick has run it or thrown it 22 times. In that same part of the field, Laird and Gaskin have touched the ball only a combined six times--and two of those came on Fitzpatrick throws. Inside the 5, the Dolphins called plays for Fitzpatrick 10 times, and only a combined three times for Laird and Gaskin.
In other words, when the team is knocking on an opponent's doorstep, Fitz--not his mostly untested backfield--is getting the scoring opportunities.
It's one data set. It doesn't suggest anything close to guaranteed Week 16 goal-line usage. Trends are trends until they're not. So if you want to gamble on this trend continuing, given their sub-par running game, I believe it's a gamble worth taking. ---
A quick look around the league: The NFL has suspended Josh Gordon indefinitely. I've written this before after similar Gordon suspensions: It's nothing but sad. His last NFL catch--or what might end up being his last NFL catch--was a beautiful thing.
It's been reported that Will Grier has a good shot at starting for Carolina this week. Sometimes change is good. If you're leaning on D.J. Moore or hoping to strike gold with Curtis Samuel, this would not be a welcome change with your fantasy season on the line.
D.J. Chark could be back this week, pushing Chris Conley back down to a #3 receiver in a bottom-third pass attack--not someone to keep rostered.
Odell Beckham, Jr. apparently isn't the only Cleveland Brown who might want out this offseason. Reportedly Jarvis Landry and other teammates vocalized as much to Arizona's sideline over the weekend. While I don't want to see Cleveland return to oblivion only one season after returning from it, what an incredible storyline this would be, and what a huge fantasy impact it would have if OBJ and Landry went elsewhere in 2020. I will say this: barring significant improvements, this team won't compete with Baltimore or a healthy Pittsburgh squad led by Ben Roethlisberger and JuJu Smith-Schuster. If they have a rough September, I can see management breaking them up and retooling for 2021 or 2022.
Finally, yesterday there was a comment about whether to pick up Alexander Mattison or Mike Boone. Here's how I'd approach it: If Mattison's good to go, there's almost no way he's carrying the load. Cook will lead if he's healthy, and Boone will share if Cook's out. So the smart play is to go Boone: If Cook and Mattison sit, you have an RB2+. Otherwise, you're no worse off than if you grabbed Mattison.