We've reached the end of another fantasy regular season. This will be my last post of the year. As always, I'll pick back up in June after the NBA Finals.
There are 10 things to quickly run through before signing off:
(1) A huge thank you to the five FF4W commmenters: Aaron Weaver, Joel Verzosa, Matt Weavil, Robbie Lange, and Tommy Barnett. For the past three years they've helped me answer all of your questions. Thousands and thousands every year. It's exhausting, and it's a blast. Responsiveness is a key tenet of this page. You all know what you're doing, and you live with whatever fantasy decisions you make. But we're continually here for ya, and that level of personalized engagement, I think, helps make this a pretty special community.
(2) The FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League enjoyed a successful second year with 84 teams across six 14-team divisions. A few years ago I started writing a book outlining how to construct the best possible fantasy league. After around 40 pages I stopped because of time constraints. But the PFFL is the byproduct of this largely unwritten book. If your friend league or work league drives you nuts because of collusion or confusing rules or prize money that doesn't get paid out, the PFFL might be for you.
(3) A shout-out to the winners of The FF4W Challenge: Nick Parker (total points) and Jeremy Tuckey (per-game points). The rosters they selected this preseason kicked butt. If we can come up with a simpler way to tabulate the scoring, I'll bring this back next season.
(4) The final tally of my 19 contrarian preseason predictions is nine correct, eight wrong, and two partially correct (the players defied conventional wisdom, but not to the degree I thought they would). Again, these are picks virtually no one else made. Like out of 160+ experts, only one other person picked Kenny Golladay to finish inside the top 12.
(5) The final tally of my 191 weekly contrarian predictions was 113 correct and 78 wrong. So 59% of the time, my weekly bargains and busts--calls virtually no one else made, and sometimes absolutely no one else made--proved accurate. Hitting 50% on insanely unconventional picks is incredibly challenging. Exceeding this mark week after week has been the most difficult fantasy exercise I've taken on.
(6) My DFS 50/50 Lineup of the week hit yesterday, lifting me to a still-disappointing 7-9-1 on the year. Since kicking off this segment in 2017 I've compiled a 28-20-2 record, or 58%.
(7) My preseason player rankings (based on the top 180 players) were more accurate than ADP 48% of the time, less accurate 36% of the time, and exactly the same 16% of the time. When factoring only the hits and misses, 76 of my player rankings turned out to be more accurate than ADP, while 58 were less accurate. That's a 57% / 43% split. That means if you drafted using my rankings, and all your opponents drafted using ADP, you would have easily had the best shot at drafting the best team. For more information on how these numbers were tabulated, check out Saturday's column.
(8) 251 of you subscribed to my 2019 preseason rankings, which as always featured my top 300 players across all six core positions. This spreadsheet is regularly updated and e-mailed to subscribers right up until the morning of the season's opening kickoff. You can sign up for the 2020 rankings anytime at www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com. Every year it's pay-what-you-want--whatever it's worth to you. We're grateful for whatever people contribute.
(9) As shared once before, I'm hoping to revamp the FF4W website in time for the 2021 season. It would allow for guest writers, special features, etc. If anyone has the technical know-how and time to work with me on making this happen, please reach out.
(10) In case it hasn't been reinforced enough, FF4W is about providing value on tough calls. The easy calls are easy for a reason. Most of the time they work out as expected. I've always been more interested in the tough ones. This page will thrive or wilt because of predictions few people--and sometimes no other people--are making. That's the high bar set every summer. By year's end, all of us know full well whether that bar's been cleared.
And with that, a giant thank you to all of you for making FF4W what it is. Back in 2012, I wasn't sure how many people wanted what I wanted: a fantasy site that was approachable, transparent, and bold. Whether you've been with me since the beginning or stumbled onto this page in recent months, you're a valuable part of this community. Keep asking questions, keep pushing your fantasy truths, and keep an open mind. The best ideas are usually the ones we don't yet know.
There are 10 things to quickly run through before signing off:
(1) A huge thank you to the five FF4W commmenters: Aaron Weaver, Joel Verzosa, Matt Weavil, Robbie Lange, and Tommy Barnett. For the past three years they've helped me answer all of your questions. Thousands and thousands every year. It's exhausting, and it's a blast. Responsiveness is a key tenet of this page. You all know what you're doing, and you live with whatever fantasy decisions you make. But we're continually here for ya, and that level of personalized engagement, I think, helps make this a pretty special community.
(2) The FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League enjoyed a successful second year with 84 teams across six 14-team divisions. A few years ago I started writing a book outlining how to construct the best possible fantasy league. After around 40 pages I stopped because of time constraints. But the PFFL is the byproduct of this largely unwritten book. If your friend league or work league drives you nuts because of collusion or confusing rules or prize money that doesn't get paid out, the PFFL might be for you.
(3) A shout-out to the winners of The FF4W Challenge: Nick Parker (total points) and Jeremy Tuckey (per-game points). The rosters they selected this preseason kicked butt. If we can come up with a simpler way to tabulate the scoring, I'll bring this back next season.
(4) The final tally of my 19 contrarian preseason predictions is nine correct, eight wrong, and two partially correct (the players defied conventional wisdom, but not to the degree I thought they would). Again, these are picks virtually no one else made. Like out of 160+ experts, only one other person picked Kenny Golladay to finish inside the top 12.
(5) The final tally of my 191 weekly contrarian predictions was 113 correct and 78 wrong. So 59% of the time, my weekly bargains and busts--calls virtually no one else made, and sometimes absolutely no one else made--proved accurate. Hitting 50% on insanely unconventional picks is incredibly challenging. Exceeding this mark week after week has been the most difficult fantasy exercise I've taken on.
(6) My DFS 50/50 Lineup of the week hit yesterday, lifting me to a still-disappointing 7-9-1 on the year. Since kicking off this segment in 2017 I've compiled a 28-20-2 record, or 58%.
(7) My preseason player rankings (based on the top 180 players) were more accurate than ADP 48% of the time, less accurate 36% of the time, and exactly the same 16% of the time. When factoring only the hits and misses, 76 of my player rankings turned out to be more accurate than ADP, while 58 were less accurate. That's a 57% / 43% split. That means if you drafted using my rankings, and all your opponents drafted using ADP, you would have easily had the best shot at drafting the best team. For more information on how these numbers were tabulated, check out Saturday's column.
(8) 251 of you subscribed to my 2019 preseason rankings, which as always featured my top 300 players across all six core positions. This spreadsheet is regularly updated and e-mailed to subscribers right up until the morning of the season's opening kickoff. You can sign up for the 2020 rankings anytime at www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com. Every year it's pay-what-you-want--whatever it's worth to you. We're grateful for whatever people contribute.
(9) As shared once before, I'm hoping to revamp the FF4W website in time for the 2021 season. It would allow for guest writers, special features, etc. If anyone has the technical know-how and time to work with me on making this happen, please reach out.
(10) In case it hasn't been reinforced enough, FF4W is about providing value on tough calls. The easy calls are easy for a reason. Most of the time they work out as expected. I've always been more interested in the tough ones. This page will thrive or wilt because of predictions few people--and sometimes no other people--are making. That's the high bar set every summer. By year's end, all of us know full well whether that bar's been cleared.
And with that, a giant thank you to all of you for making FF4W what it is. Back in 2012, I wasn't sure how many people wanted what I wanted: a fantasy site that was approachable, transparent, and bold. Whether you've been with me since the beginning or stumbled onto this page in recent months, you're a valuable part of this community. Keep asking questions, keep pushing your fantasy truths, and keep an open mind. The best ideas are usually the ones we don't yet know.