Four columns to go. The next two will focus on one of my favorite FF4W topics: transparency. Every week we share hits and misses and tally the totals. If on balance the FF4W commenters and I provide better value than what you can find elsewhere, great. If not, we don't deserve to keep you here. There's no hiding behind illusions of success. You deserve to know, day by day and week by week, how we're doing.
Each summer since 2013 I've shared my biggest preseason contrarian predictions--breakout players just about no one thinks will do well, and busts just about everyone thinks will do well. The more contrarian the pick, the more push-back I get. I'm fairly certain some people have stopped reading FF4W because of some of these picks. I don't apologize for any of them, obviously. I stand by them and ask readers to keep an open mind until the season's over. Because no one has a monopoly on the truth.
Before the season started, as always, I posted my predictions on the FF4W website:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html
They've been here for anyone to see, scrutinize, and call out. Some picks in hindsight look pretty stupid. A majority don't. So let's take a quick look at where things stand with one weekend of football to go.
First, the misses: My big bargain QB picks included Jared Goff (QB-10 ADP) and Matthew Stafford (QB-25). By the end of September, it was clear Goff would disappoint. As for Stafford, he was a near-elite QB1 until getting hurt. Still, I'm counting it as a miss, just like I do every year when injuries hit. Despite ranking him better than every single expert (no one else ranked him in the top 14, and only five people placed him better than 20th), I'm sticking with my standard policy: there's no fudging injuries. Final scoring is what matters.
I missed big with two other QBs, and "big" doesn't do it justice. Lamar Jackson (QB-18) wasn't expected to do much according to most experts, but somehow I thought he'd do even worse. Stupid me. And Kyler Murray (QB-12) surprised me, as I figured he'd be a bottom-half fantasy quarterback.
At RB Devonta Freeman (RB-16) might have hit if he'd stayed healthy, while the Jets shockingly underutilized Ty Montgomery (RB-83). And Mark Ingram (RB-22) held onto the starting job; I had thought Gus Edwards and Justice Hill would cut into his bellcow role.
My remaining misses included Trey Quinn (WR-92), who took a backseat in Washington Week 1 and never looked back (or rather, never looked forward). And George Kittle (TE-3) proved me wrong week after week despite playing alongside more talented receivers than he did last year.
That's nine misses. Seven I never had a chance. Two others probably would have turned out differently if not for injuries.
Now for the hits, starting once again at QB with a prediction I don't think anyone agreed with when I first made it. Over the summer I made the case that Baker Mayfield (QB-5) was insanely overvalued. Only one expert didn't rank him as a QB1. Most placed him in the top 4. We all know what happened. My Jimmy Garoppolo (QB-21) pick is also looking good, thanks to a nice late-season run.
At RB I warned against drafting three consensus RB1s: James Conner, Joe Mixon, and Damien Williams. Some of you could identify with my Conner pick. Maybe a handful could understand Mixon. Very, very few agreed with me on Williams. To put things in perspective, subscribers to my preseason rankings know that I ranked Williams as an RB-37 and overall-83. Given where nearly everyone was drafting him (second round), it seemed like a crazy call. Those who avoided him (and Mixon and Conner) on draft day reaped the rewards. Also, I pushed Royce Freeman (RB-40), and he should meet my expectations when the season ends Sunday.
At WR, my "Davante Adams (WR-2) is overrated" call was met with a lot of resistance. Had he remained healthy, he surely would have been a top-10 receiver. But his consensus #2 ranking was still too bullish. And two bold calls with Kenny Golladay (WR-18) and Devante Parker (WR-65) will hit despite Golladay catching balls from a third-stringer for several weeks.
Finally, Jason Witten (TE-25) was my favorite bargain tight end all summer. He'll end the year as a TE1 with a shot at finishing 9th. Not bad for a guy zero experts placed in the top 18. It's fair to say that only FF4W urged readers to draft him.
So if the season ended today, I'd have hit 10-of-19 (53%) contrarian preseason predictions--calls virtually no one else made, and in some cases, no one else made.
Each summer since 2013 I've shared my biggest preseason contrarian predictions--breakout players just about no one thinks will do well, and busts just about everyone thinks will do well. The more contrarian the pick, the more push-back I get. I'm fairly certain some people have stopped reading FF4W because of some of these picks. I don't apologize for any of them, obviously. I stand by them and ask readers to keep an open mind until the season's over. Because no one has a monopoly on the truth.
Before the season started, as always, I posted my predictions on the FF4W website:
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html
They've been here for anyone to see, scrutinize, and call out. Some picks in hindsight look pretty stupid. A majority don't. So let's take a quick look at where things stand with one weekend of football to go.
First, the misses: My big bargain QB picks included Jared Goff (QB-10 ADP) and Matthew Stafford (QB-25). By the end of September, it was clear Goff would disappoint. As for Stafford, he was a near-elite QB1 until getting hurt. Still, I'm counting it as a miss, just like I do every year when injuries hit. Despite ranking him better than every single expert (no one else ranked him in the top 14, and only five people placed him better than 20th), I'm sticking with my standard policy: there's no fudging injuries. Final scoring is what matters.
I missed big with two other QBs, and "big" doesn't do it justice. Lamar Jackson (QB-18) wasn't expected to do much according to most experts, but somehow I thought he'd do even worse. Stupid me. And Kyler Murray (QB-12) surprised me, as I figured he'd be a bottom-half fantasy quarterback.
At RB Devonta Freeman (RB-16) might have hit if he'd stayed healthy, while the Jets shockingly underutilized Ty Montgomery (RB-83). And Mark Ingram (RB-22) held onto the starting job; I had thought Gus Edwards and Justice Hill would cut into his bellcow role.
My remaining misses included Trey Quinn (WR-92), who took a backseat in Washington Week 1 and never looked back (or rather, never looked forward). And George Kittle (TE-3) proved me wrong week after week despite playing alongside more talented receivers than he did last year.
That's nine misses. Seven I never had a chance. Two others probably would have turned out differently if not for injuries.
Now for the hits, starting once again at QB with a prediction I don't think anyone agreed with when I first made it. Over the summer I made the case that Baker Mayfield (QB-5) was insanely overvalued. Only one expert didn't rank him as a QB1. Most placed him in the top 4. We all know what happened. My Jimmy Garoppolo (QB-21) pick is also looking good, thanks to a nice late-season run.
At RB I warned against drafting three consensus RB1s: James Conner, Joe Mixon, and Damien Williams. Some of you could identify with my Conner pick. Maybe a handful could understand Mixon. Very, very few agreed with me on Williams. To put things in perspective, subscribers to my preseason rankings know that I ranked Williams as an RB-37 and overall-83. Given where nearly everyone was drafting him (second round), it seemed like a crazy call. Those who avoided him (and Mixon and Conner) on draft day reaped the rewards. Also, I pushed Royce Freeman (RB-40), and he should meet my expectations when the season ends Sunday.
At WR, my "Davante Adams (WR-2) is overrated" call was met with a lot of resistance. Had he remained healthy, he surely would have been a top-10 receiver. But his consensus #2 ranking was still too bullish. And two bold calls with Kenny Golladay (WR-18) and Devante Parker (WR-65) will hit despite Golladay catching balls from a third-stringer for several weeks.
Finally, Jason Witten (TE-25) was my favorite bargain tight end all summer. He'll end the year as a TE1 with a shot at finishing 9th. Not bad for a guy zero experts placed in the top 18. It's fair to say that only FF4W urged readers to draft him.
So if the season ended today, I'd have hit 10-of-19 (53%) contrarian preseason predictions--calls virtually no one else made, and in some cases, no one else made.