It took a while for Dak Prescott to get going. He entered last night with an ugly 5/5 TD/INT stat line in his previous four games. In the first quarter he was 5-of-9 for 50 yards and a pick. With a minute left in the first half he was sitting on 90 yards and a pick. Then the Dak of early this season--the franchise QB with 10 TDs and two interceptions in his first three contests--came alive.
The concern with Dak is how easy his schedule's been. A top-5 fantasy QB, he's teed off against bottom-tier pass defenses: the Giants (twice), Redskins, and Dolphins. In those four games he's amassed 13 scores and only four turnovers. In four games against middling-to-good pass defenses, he has five scores and five turnovers. His remaining schedule includes two of the three stingiest pass D's (Patriots and Bills), as well as the Vikings, Bears, and improved Rams.
From where I'm sitting, why wouldn't you sell high? Why not cash out on this near-elite performer? The mistake some people make is believing recent production is future production. Dak is a great QB with outstanding weapons who's dominated bad D's and struggled against good ones. That's not knocking him; many QBs suffer similar fates. The problem is that his upcoming schedule has too many rough patches to make him a reliable fantasy starter more than about half the time.
Elsewhere last night, the Giants reached the Dallas 11-yard-line five times, but could punch it in only once. That was essentially the difference. Daniel Jones remains a work in progress, which isn't surprising for a rookie. The eventual return of Sterling Shepard will help. Still, this team has lost three straight winnable games. They're headed for, at best, a 4-12 season, which would be worse than last year.
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Around the league, Mark Walton's surprise four-game suspension (barely) opens the door for Kalen Ballage. Ballage made a name for himself last December after racking up 123 yards on 12 carries against Minnesota. Remove that output, and he's averaging 2.3 YPC in his brief NFL career. And in his final 22 games at Arizona State, he averaged only 3.86 YPC (very sub-par by college standards). If you're desperate, Ballage offers all the risk of Ty Johnson and all the payoff of Jalen Richard. In other words, he's the ultimate dart throw. The depth chart behind him includes a pair of unknowns. Rookie Myles Gaskin is the more intriguing of the two.
Le'Veon Bell had an MRI on his knee. Bilal Powell or Ty Montgomery will enter the RB3/4 conversation if Bell's forced to miss time. And that would be the icing on the cake for a disastrous first season with the Jets.
Preston Williams' breakout performance on Sunday gave way to an Injured Reserve assignment on Monday. DeVante Parker naturally would get a bump, while some combination of Albert Wilson, Allen Hurns, and/or Jakeem Grant could enter the WR4/5 conversation. My money's on former second-rounder Mike Gesicki, who probably would be a top-14 fantasy TE if he played for any of 20 other NFL teams.
Elsewhere, DeSean Jackson reappeared like a house guest who forgot his coat, then promptly exited for another 4-6 weeks. Jacoby Brissett is questionable for a dream matchup against the Dolphins. And Brandin Cooks (repeated concussions) is an even bigger Week 10 question mark, with head coach Sean McVay ominously acknowledging he doesn't know when Cooks will play again. In Cooks' absence last week, Josh Reynolds stepped with a nice day on eight targets; as a starter he'd be a much-roster WR3/4 the rest of the way.
The concern with Dak is how easy his schedule's been. A top-5 fantasy QB, he's teed off against bottom-tier pass defenses: the Giants (twice), Redskins, and Dolphins. In those four games he's amassed 13 scores and only four turnovers. In four games against middling-to-good pass defenses, he has five scores and five turnovers. His remaining schedule includes two of the three stingiest pass D's (Patriots and Bills), as well as the Vikings, Bears, and improved Rams.
From where I'm sitting, why wouldn't you sell high? Why not cash out on this near-elite performer? The mistake some people make is believing recent production is future production. Dak is a great QB with outstanding weapons who's dominated bad D's and struggled against good ones. That's not knocking him; many QBs suffer similar fates. The problem is that his upcoming schedule has too many rough patches to make him a reliable fantasy starter more than about half the time.
Elsewhere last night, the Giants reached the Dallas 11-yard-line five times, but could punch it in only once. That was essentially the difference. Daniel Jones remains a work in progress, which isn't surprising for a rookie. The eventual return of Sterling Shepard will help. Still, this team has lost three straight winnable games. They're headed for, at best, a 4-12 season, which would be worse than last year.
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Around the league, Mark Walton's surprise four-game suspension (barely) opens the door for Kalen Ballage. Ballage made a name for himself last December after racking up 123 yards on 12 carries against Minnesota. Remove that output, and he's averaging 2.3 YPC in his brief NFL career. And in his final 22 games at Arizona State, he averaged only 3.86 YPC (very sub-par by college standards). If you're desperate, Ballage offers all the risk of Ty Johnson and all the payoff of Jalen Richard. In other words, he's the ultimate dart throw. The depth chart behind him includes a pair of unknowns. Rookie Myles Gaskin is the more intriguing of the two.
Le'Veon Bell had an MRI on his knee. Bilal Powell or Ty Montgomery will enter the RB3/4 conversation if Bell's forced to miss time. And that would be the icing on the cake for a disastrous first season with the Jets.
Preston Williams' breakout performance on Sunday gave way to an Injured Reserve assignment on Monday. DeVante Parker naturally would get a bump, while some combination of Albert Wilson, Allen Hurns, and/or Jakeem Grant could enter the WR4/5 conversation. My money's on former second-rounder Mike Gesicki, who probably would be a top-14 fantasy TE if he played for any of 20 other NFL teams.
Elsewhere, DeSean Jackson reappeared like a house guest who forgot his coat, then promptly exited for another 4-6 weeks. Jacoby Brissett is questionable for a dream matchup against the Dolphins. And Brandin Cooks (repeated concussions) is an even bigger Week 10 question mark, with head coach Sean McVay ominously acknowledging he doesn't know when Cooks will play again. In Cooks' absence last week, Josh Reynolds stepped with a nice day on eight targets; as a starter he'd be a much-roster WR3/4 the rest of the way.