Last Saturday I presented 13 contrarian bargains/busts for the Sunday/Monday games based on expert consensus rankings. Some of my favorite bargains were guys I wouldn't allow myself to take, like the 51st-ranked Jonnu Smith, who was ranked that low only because most experts believed earlier in the week that Delanie Walker might suit up. Despite having to pass on guys like Jonnu, I managed to hit 9 of 13 predictions, and am now 53-for-89 (60%) on the season. Here are my Week 9 contrarian bargains and busts:
With four teams on bye, Ryan Fitzpatrick (consensus #26 Week 9 QB) is ranked as the third worst quarterback, just ahead of two guys with zero combined career starts: Brandon Allen and Dwayne Haskins. That level of dismissiveness seems a bit insane. The opposing Jets are second-worst in the league with nine sacks and is yielding a healthy 263 passing yards per game. As erratic as Fitzpatrick is, has been, and will continue to be, he's a great bet for 200+ yards and a couple scores. On the flip side Lamar Jackson (#6 QB) is averaging 29.9 fantasy points against four bottom-tier pass defenses, which have combined to give up 67 passing TDs and secure only 10 interceptions. Against his other three opponents--all mid-range competition combining for 32 passing TDs and 23 interceptions--Jackson is averaging 18.7 fantasy points. He has not faced a defense has brutal as New England's. He's way overvalued.
At RB, I'll continue to promote Duke Johnson until his weekly ranking makes sense. The consensus #37 option this week, Johnson has a safe floor and a solid upside. Meanwhile, Frank Gore (#32) is facing a Washington defense giving up the fifth most rushing yards per game, making the 36-year-old Gore a solid RB2/3 dart throw. On the flip side, Nick Chubb (#7) ran better against San Francisco (5.4 YPC) and New England (6.6 YPC) than anyone reasonably could have expected. That said, I don't believe he'll find the end zone against Denver, and his three lost fumbles in his last two games are concerning.
At WR, Cole Beasley (#45) is worth a flyer as Buffalo's #2 receiver, while Preston Williams (#37) offers comparable fantasy startability. Williams has more catches and yards than Devante Parker, but fewer touchdowns. He's more valuable than fantasy point total suggests. On the flip side, although Julian Edelman (#7) has been on fire, I can see Baltimore game-planning against him, forcing other Patriot receivers to step up. And Tyreek Hill (#8) is a huge WR1 risk, particularly assuming Matt Moore once again takes the helm.
At TE, Noah Fant (#19) enjoyed eight targets last week in the Broncos' first contest without Emmanuel Sanders. Wouldn't be surprised if the untested Brandon Allen leans on him. On the flip side, experts continue to view Greg Olsen (#8) as a fairly reliable TE1. He's simply not getting enough attention (15 targets in his past four games) to be a remotely safe starter.
With four teams on bye, Ryan Fitzpatrick (consensus #26 Week 9 QB) is ranked as the third worst quarterback, just ahead of two guys with zero combined career starts: Brandon Allen and Dwayne Haskins. That level of dismissiveness seems a bit insane. The opposing Jets are second-worst in the league with nine sacks and is yielding a healthy 263 passing yards per game. As erratic as Fitzpatrick is, has been, and will continue to be, he's a great bet for 200+ yards and a couple scores. On the flip side Lamar Jackson (#6 QB) is averaging 29.9 fantasy points against four bottom-tier pass defenses, which have combined to give up 67 passing TDs and secure only 10 interceptions. Against his other three opponents--all mid-range competition combining for 32 passing TDs and 23 interceptions--Jackson is averaging 18.7 fantasy points. He has not faced a defense has brutal as New England's. He's way overvalued.
At RB, I'll continue to promote Duke Johnson until his weekly ranking makes sense. The consensus #37 option this week, Johnson has a safe floor and a solid upside. Meanwhile, Frank Gore (#32) is facing a Washington defense giving up the fifth most rushing yards per game, making the 36-year-old Gore a solid RB2/3 dart throw. On the flip side, Nick Chubb (#7) ran better against San Francisco (5.4 YPC) and New England (6.6 YPC) than anyone reasonably could have expected. That said, I don't believe he'll find the end zone against Denver, and his three lost fumbles in his last two games are concerning.
At WR, Cole Beasley (#45) is worth a flyer as Buffalo's #2 receiver, while Preston Williams (#37) offers comparable fantasy startability. Williams has more catches and yards than Devante Parker, but fewer touchdowns. He's more valuable than fantasy point total suggests. On the flip side, although Julian Edelman (#7) has been on fire, I can see Baltimore game-planning against him, forcing other Patriot receivers to step up. And Tyreek Hill (#8) is a huge WR1 risk, particularly assuming Matt Moore once again takes the helm.
At TE, Noah Fant (#19) enjoyed eight targets last week in the Broncos' first contest without Emmanuel Sanders. Wouldn't be surprised if the untested Brandon Allen leans on him. On the flip side, experts continue to view Greg Olsen (#8) as a fairly reliable TE1. He's simply not getting enough attention (15 targets in his past four games) to be a remotely safe starter.