The last time Thanksgiving was this late in the month was 2013, the Lions had lost nine straight Thanksgiving games. My FF4W column that day included a "Don't believe the hype" warning about the fourth-string QB facing Detroit, the Packers' Matt Flynn.
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Flynn was coming off an impressive 218-1-0 line with 24 rushing yards in relief of third-stringer Scott Tolzien. He was a trendy streamer that day, facing a middling Lions squad yielding a bloated 25.2 points per game. The result was one of the weakest Thanksgiving QB performances in memory: 10-for-20 with 139 passing yards, four rushing yards, zero TDs, and three turnovers.
And yet, home field on Thanksgiving isn't an automatic advantage. Whereas home teams historically have won more games than they've lost, on the fourth Thursday of November, the playing field has been far more level. Perhaps part of that is Detroit's long-time futility. Since 1997, non-Lion teams are 19-16.
That said, when a team is at less than 100%--particularly at the quarterback position--my eyes widen. Expecting a backup to rise to the occasion in front of a nationally televised audience is a lot to ask.
That's why the Lions' Jeff Driskel's injury could mean the difference between winning and losing, and could mean the difference between winning and losing your fantasy week. The 24-year-old David Blough has never taken an NFL snap. He'll face a top-10 Bears pass defense. With Blough starting, there's little doubt Detroit head coach Matt Patricia will lean heavily on Bo Scarbrough along with a more active J.D. McKissic. It could be disastrous for those putting their trust in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, not to mention the team's less reliable talents. And by the way, Scarbrough's risky despite the expected big workload. He doesn't catch balls and probably won't clear 80 yards. In other words, he needs to score to be startable against a Bears squad giving up only 3.7 YPC.
For Chicago, Allen Robinson remains a must-start, Tarik Cohen remains a solid streamer, and David Montgomery remains an enigma (I wouldn't start him if I had a fairly reliable top-25 option). And I'll double-down on TE Jesper Horsted as a worthwhile dart throw if you don't have a TE1.
Elsewhere today, Dallas faces a must-win situation against the 8-3 Bills. For Buffalo, John Brown proved last week that pretty much no defensive back can contain him. What a great story for 2019. That said, I don't see any other Bill worth starting besides the unbenchable Josh Allen. Forget Devin Singletary. Forget Cole Beasley. The Cowboys will limit Buffalo to under 250 yards and no more than 14 points.
This is must-win territory for Dallas, which is only one game up on the Eagles in the NFC East, and Philly has an easier remaining schedule. Philly also will be at home against Dallas in Week 16 in a matchup that could dictate who reaches the postseason. I believe the Cowboys will power through Buffalo's stingy defense. Zeke Elliott, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup are must-starts. Dak Prescott should be a top 12-16 QB. Randall Cobb has been exceptional in three straight and is as good a WR flyer despite his very conservative WR-47 expert-consensus ranking.
Finally, the Falcons-Saints game has to lean New Orleans' way. Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Jared Cook are on fire. Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray are one of the top 1-2 backfield punches in the league. While Murray is a more speculative fantasy start depending on how he's used, the other four are fairly obvious must-starts. Ted Ginn is a nice flyer despite the limited looks. I'm eyeing 30+ points for the Saints against an overmatched Falcons team that won't stifle New Orleans a second time (after shockingly limiting them to nine points in Week 10).
For Atlanta, all eyes are on Julio Jones's questionable status. If he sits Calvin Ridley is a must-start--unless he's shadowed by the questionable Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore has done a number on #1 receivers this season. Meanwhile, Russell Gage would have to be taken seriously. And Devonta Freeman's couldn't return soon enough; Brian Hill and rookie Qadree Ollison showed that running behind Atlanta's o-line is as tough as advertised. In that context, Freeman's weak 3.5 YPC makes a lot more sense. Assuming he'll get his usual heavy dose of targets, fire up Freeman as a streamable top 20-26 RB with TD upside.
Happy Thanksgiving and good luck today.
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Flynn was coming off an impressive 218-1-0 line with 24 rushing yards in relief of third-stringer Scott Tolzien. He was a trendy streamer that day, facing a middling Lions squad yielding a bloated 25.2 points per game. The result was one of the weakest Thanksgiving QB performances in memory: 10-for-20 with 139 passing yards, four rushing yards, zero TDs, and three turnovers.
And yet, home field on Thanksgiving isn't an automatic advantage. Whereas home teams historically have won more games than they've lost, on the fourth Thursday of November, the playing field has been far more level. Perhaps part of that is Detroit's long-time futility. Since 1997, non-Lion teams are 19-16.
That said, when a team is at less than 100%--particularly at the quarterback position--my eyes widen. Expecting a backup to rise to the occasion in front of a nationally televised audience is a lot to ask.
That's why the Lions' Jeff Driskel's injury could mean the difference between winning and losing, and could mean the difference between winning and losing your fantasy week. The 24-year-old David Blough has never taken an NFL snap. He'll face a top-10 Bears pass defense. With Blough starting, there's little doubt Detroit head coach Matt Patricia will lean heavily on Bo Scarbrough along with a more active J.D. McKissic. It could be disastrous for those putting their trust in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, not to mention the team's less reliable talents. And by the way, Scarbrough's risky despite the expected big workload. He doesn't catch balls and probably won't clear 80 yards. In other words, he needs to score to be startable against a Bears squad giving up only 3.7 YPC.
For Chicago, Allen Robinson remains a must-start, Tarik Cohen remains a solid streamer, and David Montgomery remains an enigma (I wouldn't start him if I had a fairly reliable top-25 option). And I'll double-down on TE Jesper Horsted as a worthwhile dart throw if you don't have a TE1.
Elsewhere today, Dallas faces a must-win situation against the 8-3 Bills. For Buffalo, John Brown proved last week that pretty much no defensive back can contain him. What a great story for 2019. That said, I don't see any other Bill worth starting besides the unbenchable Josh Allen. Forget Devin Singletary. Forget Cole Beasley. The Cowboys will limit Buffalo to under 250 yards and no more than 14 points.
This is must-win territory for Dallas, which is only one game up on the Eagles in the NFC East, and Philly has an easier remaining schedule. Philly also will be at home against Dallas in Week 16 in a matchup that could dictate who reaches the postseason. I believe the Cowboys will power through Buffalo's stingy defense. Zeke Elliott, Amari Cooper, and Michael Gallup are must-starts. Dak Prescott should be a top 12-16 QB. Randall Cobb has been exceptional in three straight and is as good a WR flyer despite his very conservative WR-47 expert-consensus ranking.
Finally, the Falcons-Saints game has to lean New Orleans' way. Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Jared Cook are on fire. Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray are one of the top 1-2 backfield punches in the league. While Murray is a more speculative fantasy start depending on how he's used, the other four are fairly obvious must-starts. Ted Ginn is a nice flyer despite the limited looks. I'm eyeing 30+ points for the Saints against an overmatched Falcons team that won't stifle New Orleans a second time (after shockingly limiting them to nine points in Week 10).
For Atlanta, all eyes are on Julio Jones's questionable status. If he sits Calvin Ridley is a must-start--unless he's shadowed by the questionable Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore has done a number on #1 receivers this season. Meanwhile, Russell Gage would have to be taken seriously. And Devonta Freeman's couldn't return soon enough; Brian Hill and rookie Qadree Ollison showed that running behind Atlanta's o-line is as tough as advertised. In that context, Freeman's weak 3.5 YPC makes a lot more sense. Assuming he'll get his usual heavy dose of targets, fire up Freeman as a streamable top 20-26 RB with TD upside.
Happy Thanksgiving and good luck today.