There's a lot more to juggle during long holiday weekends, but I'll always find a way to squeeze in fantasy football, especially since this is crunch time for so many of us. Most leagues' postseasons start next week. Final playoff spots and first-round byes are at stake. So gaining some kind of edge is as critical as ever. This year I'm 82-for-134 (61%) on contrarian predictions--bargains and busts that go against consensus expert opinion. Here are my outside-the-box Week 13 picks:
At QB, Andy Dalton (expert-consensus 28th ranked Week 13 QB) is getting no respect in his first game back from what originally appeared to be a permanent benching. Simply put, he's a terrific flyer against a middling-at-best Jets pass defense. I also like the similarly underappreciated Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB-26), who should be good for 15+ fantasy points. Finally, while Kyle Allen (QB-21) might not be a great quarterback, he--with the help of the unstoppable Christian McCaffrey--should be able to handle Washington.
On the flip side, with 20+ MPH winds and thunderstorms expected in Jacksonville, I'd knock Jameis Winston (QB-7) down a few spots. He's capable of finishing in the top 11-13, making him a solid streamer. But QB-7 suggests "must-start" territory, which seems too bullish.
At RB, gimme Darrel Williams (RB-44) and LeSean McCoy (RB-38) as worthwhile RB3+ options in a contest where Kansas City should post 30+. I also like the versatile Kenyan Drake (RB-25) against the reeling Rams. On the flip side, I don't think game flow will favor Oakland against the Chiefs, meaning Josh Jacobs (RB-7) is valued too high. And as strange as it sounds, Nick Chubb (RB-11) will be disappoint in Pittsburgh; I doubt he'll exceed 70 total yards.
At WR, Alshon Jeffery has been practicing fully all week, and so his consensus WR-44 ranking is baffling. Fire him up as a WR3 with top-16 upside. I also like Larry Fitzgerald comfortably outperforming his WR-50 ranking. On the flip side, Chris Godwin (WR-4) will regress sharply, while Odell Beckham, Jr. (WR-15) won't come close to earning the roughly 18 fantasy points needed to meet expectations. I have OBJ and am benching him for Austin Ekeler. Might turn out to be a mistake, but that's how strongly I believe Pittsburgh will handle Cleveland.
At TE, with Delanie Walker on injured reserve, Jonnu Smith (TE-21) will continue to impress. On the flip side, Darren Waller (TE-4) and Mark Andrews (TE-6) have averaged only three receptions per game in their last five. I'm not trusting either one, particularly Andrews against a tough Niners D.
At QB, Andy Dalton (expert-consensus 28th ranked Week 13 QB) is getting no respect in his first game back from what originally appeared to be a permanent benching. Simply put, he's a terrific flyer against a middling-at-best Jets pass defense. I also like the similarly underappreciated Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB-26), who should be good for 15+ fantasy points. Finally, while Kyle Allen (QB-21) might not be a great quarterback, he--with the help of the unstoppable Christian McCaffrey--should be able to handle Washington.
On the flip side, with 20+ MPH winds and thunderstorms expected in Jacksonville, I'd knock Jameis Winston (QB-7) down a few spots. He's capable of finishing in the top 11-13, making him a solid streamer. But QB-7 suggests "must-start" territory, which seems too bullish.
At RB, gimme Darrel Williams (RB-44) and LeSean McCoy (RB-38) as worthwhile RB3+ options in a contest where Kansas City should post 30+. I also like the versatile Kenyan Drake (RB-25) against the reeling Rams. On the flip side, I don't think game flow will favor Oakland against the Chiefs, meaning Josh Jacobs (RB-7) is valued too high. And as strange as it sounds, Nick Chubb (RB-11) will be disappoint in Pittsburgh; I doubt he'll exceed 70 total yards.
At WR, Alshon Jeffery has been practicing fully all week, and so his consensus WR-44 ranking is baffling. Fire him up as a WR3 with top-16 upside. I also like Larry Fitzgerald comfortably outperforming his WR-50 ranking. On the flip side, Chris Godwin (WR-4) will regress sharply, while Odell Beckham, Jr. (WR-15) won't come close to earning the roughly 18 fantasy points needed to meet expectations. I have OBJ and am benching him for Austin Ekeler. Might turn out to be a mistake, but that's how strongly I believe Pittsburgh will handle Cleveland.
At TE, with Delanie Walker on injured reserve, Jonnu Smith (TE-21) will continue to impress. On the flip side, Darren Waller (TE-4) and Mark Andrews (TE-6) have averaged only three receptions per game in their last five. I'm not trusting either one, particularly Andrews against a tough Niners D.