Looking at tonight's game, first of all, the Texans will win. A few days ago they were embarrassed on the road by the likely AFC-championship-game bound Ravens. There was no way to spin it. Coming off four wins in five games, Houston hit a wall.
I like the fact that their only loss during that five-game stretch was against tonight's opponent, the Colts. In that contest, Jacoby Brissett threw four TD passes and T.Y. Hilton (remember him?) posted a 6-74-1 line on 11 targets. T.Y. might return tonight, but Marlon Mack certainly won't.
Indy is an overachieving squad at 6-4. Their opponents' combined record is 45-57. Last week's 20-point victory over the Jags was the first time all year a Colts game wasn't decided by seven points or less. In fact, before Week 11 their average margin of victory was four points. They're winning partly due to discipline (second fewest penalties in the NFL) and controlling the clock (#7 in time of possession) by moving the chains (#7 in first downs and tied for #1 in fourth-down conversions with 10). They're also 28th in passing yards and 4th in rushing yards.
But Jonathan Williams is replacing the (presumably) more talented Mack, and Houston's yielding only four rushing scores on the year--second fewest in the league. To win, the Colts need to slow the game down. I don't think they can--not with Williams leading the backfield. This is the same Jonathan Williams who the Saints dumped last September to make room for Dwayne Washington. He wasn't good enough to supplant Mike Gillislee as Alvin Kamara's backup. So don't get swept away by Sunday's breakout against the league-worst Jaguars run D (5.3 YPC).
Here's how I see this going down from a fantasy perspective: Deshaun Watson is a must-start option. I'm not high on Carlos Hyde, but like Duke Johnson as a PPR streamer. Of course you have to start DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller is a terrific dart throw if he's healthy enough to start, if you can live with his low floor. If he can't go, Kenny Stills is a similar dart throw with a higher floor and lower ceiling, while Keke Coutee would be a desperation WR5+. Who knows with Darren Fells, who needs to score to make him worth the fantasy start.
The big takeaway, though, is Watson. Some fantasy managers have short memories. What happened last week becomes the basis for what'll happen this week. Doesn't usually work that way. On Sunday Watson managed 169 passing yards and two turnovers with only 12 rushing yards. Tonight I'm eyeing 275+ passing yards, 30+ rushing yards, and 2+ scores. In other words, he'll be fine.
Not so for Jacoby Brissett, who's doing a heckuva job considering where this franchise was in August in the aftermath of Andrew Luck's sudden retirement. Yet after exceeding 15 fantasy points in his first four games, he's posted more than 15 points only once in his last five. He's averaging only 11.6 fantasy points in four road games. If he's throwing early and often, he could flirt with QB1 production; he's cleared 20+ fantasy points all three times he's attempted more than 30 passes.
But I don't think that'll happen. Houston will control the clock and force Indy to play more aggressively. The Colts haven't trailed by more than two scores all season, and they could always lean on a strong running game to help dig themselves out. Not this time, or so I believe. It's a week to bench Brissett, bench Williams (who could get pulled on the second drive if he's not producing), and bench every wideout except T.Y. (if healthy). And making a decision on the whole Eric Ebron / Jack Doyle dilemma is too risky for me. Bench them both and roll with Ryan Griffin, Jacob Hollister, or even Mike Gesicki.
---
Two more words on trading. First, when I'm trying to unload an "expiring contract"--a player I plan to drop before the next set of games--I almost never offer a one-for-one. There are exceptions, like earlier this week with the #4 Rams DST. Yes, they've been near-elite this year. But their remaining schedule is pretty rough, and their largely dysfunctional offense hasn't helped. So I tried to trade them in one-for-ones because they've had solid stand-alone value. Still, it didn't work, and for good reason. In those cases, aim for 2-for-2's instead. It's easier to unload an expiring contract if that player isn't the centerpiece of an offer.
Second, if you're offering an expiring contract, put them in your starting lineup. When someone offers me a middling player, and I see that player sitting on my opponent's bench, it's pretty clear what's happening. If he's in the lineup, it makes me think my opponent actually values him--as opposed to me waiting a few days for my opponent to drop him so I can scoop him up for free.
And that's what happened with me and the Rams. I got lazy. They were on my bench Tuesday. I offered some one-for-ones. Then I dropped them. Predictable and poorly played.
I like the fact that their only loss during that five-game stretch was against tonight's opponent, the Colts. In that contest, Jacoby Brissett threw four TD passes and T.Y. Hilton (remember him?) posted a 6-74-1 line on 11 targets. T.Y. might return tonight, but Marlon Mack certainly won't.
Indy is an overachieving squad at 6-4. Their opponents' combined record is 45-57. Last week's 20-point victory over the Jags was the first time all year a Colts game wasn't decided by seven points or less. In fact, before Week 11 their average margin of victory was four points. They're winning partly due to discipline (second fewest penalties in the NFL) and controlling the clock (#7 in time of possession) by moving the chains (#7 in first downs and tied for #1 in fourth-down conversions with 10). They're also 28th in passing yards and 4th in rushing yards.
But Jonathan Williams is replacing the (presumably) more talented Mack, and Houston's yielding only four rushing scores on the year--second fewest in the league. To win, the Colts need to slow the game down. I don't think they can--not with Williams leading the backfield. This is the same Jonathan Williams who the Saints dumped last September to make room for Dwayne Washington. He wasn't good enough to supplant Mike Gillislee as Alvin Kamara's backup. So don't get swept away by Sunday's breakout against the league-worst Jaguars run D (5.3 YPC).
Here's how I see this going down from a fantasy perspective: Deshaun Watson is a must-start option. I'm not high on Carlos Hyde, but like Duke Johnson as a PPR streamer. Of course you have to start DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller is a terrific dart throw if he's healthy enough to start, if you can live with his low floor. If he can't go, Kenny Stills is a similar dart throw with a higher floor and lower ceiling, while Keke Coutee would be a desperation WR5+. Who knows with Darren Fells, who needs to score to make him worth the fantasy start.
The big takeaway, though, is Watson. Some fantasy managers have short memories. What happened last week becomes the basis for what'll happen this week. Doesn't usually work that way. On Sunday Watson managed 169 passing yards and two turnovers with only 12 rushing yards. Tonight I'm eyeing 275+ passing yards, 30+ rushing yards, and 2+ scores. In other words, he'll be fine.
Not so for Jacoby Brissett, who's doing a heckuva job considering where this franchise was in August in the aftermath of Andrew Luck's sudden retirement. Yet after exceeding 15 fantasy points in his first four games, he's posted more than 15 points only once in his last five. He's averaging only 11.6 fantasy points in four road games. If he's throwing early and often, he could flirt with QB1 production; he's cleared 20+ fantasy points all three times he's attempted more than 30 passes.
But I don't think that'll happen. Houston will control the clock and force Indy to play more aggressively. The Colts haven't trailed by more than two scores all season, and they could always lean on a strong running game to help dig themselves out. Not this time, or so I believe. It's a week to bench Brissett, bench Williams (who could get pulled on the second drive if he's not producing), and bench every wideout except T.Y. (if healthy). And making a decision on the whole Eric Ebron / Jack Doyle dilemma is too risky for me. Bench them both and roll with Ryan Griffin, Jacob Hollister, or even Mike Gesicki.
---
Two more words on trading. First, when I'm trying to unload an "expiring contract"--a player I plan to drop before the next set of games--I almost never offer a one-for-one. There are exceptions, like earlier this week with the #4 Rams DST. Yes, they've been near-elite this year. But their remaining schedule is pretty rough, and their largely dysfunctional offense hasn't helped. So I tried to trade them in one-for-ones because they've had solid stand-alone value. Still, it didn't work, and for good reason. In those cases, aim for 2-for-2's instead. It's easier to unload an expiring contract if that player isn't the centerpiece of an offer.
Second, if you're offering an expiring contract, put them in your starting lineup. When someone offers me a middling player, and I see that player sitting on my opponent's bench, it's pretty clear what's happening. If he's in the lineup, it makes me think my opponent actually values him--as opposed to me waiting a few days for my opponent to drop him so I can scoop him up for free.
And that's what happened with me and the Rams. I got lazy. They were on my bench Tuesday. I offered some one-for-ones. Then I dropped them. Predictable and poorly played.