Last week's mostly successful slate of contrarian predictions pushed me to 76-for-121 on the season. This means that in 121 instances, FF4W made predictions that went completely against near-universal opinion, based on Fantasy Pros' collection of up to 75 experts' weekly rankings. And of those 121 instances, FF4W's assessment proved correct 63% of the time.
Some might say it's luck, and to some extent it is. It's all based on probabilities, which are hard to control for given the frequent randomness of what happens on the field. Regardless, this stuff ain't easy. Every week I identify highly undervalued and highly overvalued players. They're undervalued and overvalued for a reason--or up to 75 reasons, depending on which experts you ask.
So as always, take these for what they are: very unconventional picks that, when wrong, make me look (deservedly) dumb. And when they're right, they can be difference makers.
Starting things out, Mason Rudolph (consensus #22 Week 12 QB) will shake off a painfully memorable (figuratively and literally) Week 11 defeat. Despite missing his #1 receiver, he's facing a Bengals defense that can't stop anyone. No expert ranks him better than 19th. It doesn't add up. I'd also take a flyer on Sam Darnold (QB-16). While not expecting a repeat of Sunday's four-TD outburst, I'm comfortable with at minimum a 250-2 line at home vs. the Raiders, which would rank him better than just about every expert places him.
On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers (QB-7) is facing the NFL's toughest pass defense (49ers) in an epic NFC showdown. This will be anything but a high-flying, air-it-out battle. Rodgers should not be started in my view unless you don't have a fairly reliable QB1 on your bench.
At RB, I pushed Tarik Cohen (RB-25) a couple Saturdays ago coming off two fairly miserable fantasy performances; he was the consensus 31st ranked RB, but he went on to post RB-16 numbers. Now Chicago's finally using him effectively, and not coincidentally while David Montgomery struggles. I believe Cohen holds strong RB2 potential against a soft Giants D. And if you're really desperate, start Derrius Guice (RB-30) in your #2 spot. He out-snapped Adrian Peterson in his first game back from a Week 1 knee injury, and that disparity should grow as Washington sees what they really have in their 2018 second rounder, who's been healthy enough to compete in only two of 26 games.
On the flip side, it's a risky week to start the boom-bust Aaron Jones (RB-10). His touches these past five games (15 per contest) have dipped compared to his first five, and 40% of his fantasy points are from touchdowns--which from what I can tell from a few extra minutes of research is the highest such percentage among all fantasy RBs. The reality is, he'll need a TD or two to justify his excessive ranking, and that's not happening against a Niner D yielding only five rushing TDs this season.
At WR, Danny Amendola (WR-53) is getting enough on-field attention--even with Jeff Driskel at QB--to be streamable against Washington, while teammate Marvin Jones (WR-30) should surprise too. And although Demaryius Thomas (WR-37) hasn't scored in 12 straight games going back to last season, his nearly six targets per contest makes him worth a flyer in a favorable matchup. Finally, D.K. Metcalf (WR-29) deserves a better rating against Philly's bottom-tier pass defense.
On the flip side, Davante Adams (WR-7) is simply not a reliable WR1 or even high-end WR2 against the Niners. Meanwhile, experts are ranking Odell Beckham, Jr. (WR-6) like it's 2018. Yes, he's facing the anemic Dolphins, who just handed Josh Allen a career-high 117.7 QBR performance. But OBJ's averaging only 4.8 receptions per game after coming into the season averaging 6.6. A strong running game and a highly capable Jarvis Landry are hampering his red-zone usage. Here's a stat that blew me away when I dug deeper last night: Thru last year OBJ had 20 TDs on 21 catches inside the opposing 10-yard line. This year? Zero catches on only four targets. That doesn't bode well for a guy no expert ranks outside the top 13.
At TE, although we don't know whether O.J. Howard will emerge from Bruce Arians doghouse, Cameron Brate (TE-15) is a solid bet at a fairly cheap price (i.e. he's available in a lot of leagues). On the flip side, not sure where Jared Cook's TE-4 ranking comes from. That seems overly aggressive. And Dallas Goedert (TE-7) is mis-cast as a sure-fire TE1 despite the expected possible return of Jordan Howard and expected return of Alshon Jeffery.
Some might say it's luck, and to some extent it is. It's all based on probabilities, which are hard to control for given the frequent randomness of what happens on the field. Regardless, this stuff ain't easy. Every week I identify highly undervalued and highly overvalued players. They're undervalued and overvalued for a reason--or up to 75 reasons, depending on which experts you ask.
So as always, take these for what they are: very unconventional picks that, when wrong, make me look (deservedly) dumb. And when they're right, they can be difference makers.
Starting things out, Mason Rudolph (consensus #22 Week 12 QB) will shake off a painfully memorable (figuratively and literally) Week 11 defeat. Despite missing his #1 receiver, he's facing a Bengals defense that can't stop anyone. No expert ranks him better than 19th. It doesn't add up. I'd also take a flyer on Sam Darnold (QB-16). While not expecting a repeat of Sunday's four-TD outburst, I'm comfortable with at minimum a 250-2 line at home vs. the Raiders, which would rank him better than just about every expert places him.
On the flip side, Aaron Rodgers (QB-7) is facing the NFL's toughest pass defense (49ers) in an epic NFC showdown. This will be anything but a high-flying, air-it-out battle. Rodgers should not be started in my view unless you don't have a fairly reliable QB1 on your bench.
At RB, I pushed Tarik Cohen (RB-25) a couple Saturdays ago coming off two fairly miserable fantasy performances; he was the consensus 31st ranked RB, but he went on to post RB-16 numbers. Now Chicago's finally using him effectively, and not coincidentally while David Montgomery struggles. I believe Cohen holds strong RB2 potential against a soft Giants D. And if you're really desperate, start Derrius Guice (RB-30) in your #2 spot. He out-snapped Adrian Peterson in his first game back from a Week 1 knee injury, and that disparity should grow as Washington sees what they really have in their 2018 second rounder, who's been healthy enough to compete in only two of 26 games.
On the flip side, it's a risky week to start the boom-bust Aaron Jones (RB-10). His touches these past five games (15 per contest) have dipped compared to his first five, and 40% of his fantasy points are from touchdowns--which from what I can tell from a few extra minutes of research is the highest such percentage among all fantasy RBs. The reality is, he'll need a TD or two to justify his excessive ranking, and that's not happening against a Niner D yielding only five rushing TDs this season.
At WR, Danny Amendola (WR-53) is getting enough on-field attention--even with Jeff Driskel at QB--to be streamable against Washington, while teammate Marvin Jones (WR-30) should surprise too. And although Demaryius Thomas (WR-37) hasn't scored in 12 straight games going back to last season, his nearly six targets per contest makes him worth a flyer in a favorable matchup. Finally, D.K. Metcalf (WR-29) deserves a better rating against Philly's bottom-tier pass defense.
On the flip side, Davante Adams (WR-7) is simply not a reliable WR1 or even high-end WR2 against the Niners. Meanwhile, experts are ranking Odell Beckham, Jr. (WR-6) like it's 2018. Yes, he's facing the anemic Dolphins, who just handed Josh Allen a career-high 117.7 QBR performance. But OBJ's averaging only 4.8 receptions per game after coming into the season averaging 6.6. A strong running game and a highly capable Jarvis Landry are hampering his red-zone usage. Here's a stat that blew me away when I dug deeper last night: Thru last year OBJ had 20 TDs on 21 catches inside the opposing 10-yard line. This year? Zero catches on only four targets. That doesn't bode well for a guy no expert ranks outside the top 13.
At TE, although we don't know whether O.J. Howard will emerge from Bruce Arians doghouse, Cameron Brate (TE-15) is a solid bet at a fairly cheap price (i.e. he's available in a lot of leagues). On the flip side, not sure where Jared Cook's TE-4 ranking comes from. That seems overly aggressive. And Dallas Goedert (TE-7) is mis-cast as a sure-fire TE1 despite the expected possible return of Jordan Howard and expected return of Alshon Jeffery.