Don't be afraid to zig when everyone else zags, as long as it's a logical zig.
Yesterday I urged folks to start Baker Mayfield despite his expert-consensus QB-21 Week 11 ranking. Throughout the comments section I repeatedly warned against starting the expert-consensus 5th-ranked Steelers DST. And I believed the Browns would win by two+ touchdowns.
A rash of Pittsburgh injuries cast some doubt on whether all this would have played out had James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Diontae Johnson remained on the field. But the bigger story is this: Cleveland is a better team than what we've seen all year, while Pittsburgh's mostly puff midseason schedule inflated their value on both sides of the ball. Sure, there's always room for debate and what-ifs. That's sports in a nutshell.
And yet we shouldn't miss the bigger picture: By thinking past performance is always an indicator of future performance, we miss out on opportunities to improve our fantasy team's performance. Each NFL team has 15 chances during the regular season to make adjustments between games. It's been two steps forward, one step back for Cleveland all year. They got crushed by Tennessee at home, then later walloped Baltimore on the road before getting obliterated by San Francisco. Baker took 3+ sacks in four of the team's first five contests. In the last five he's taken 3+ sacks only once--while facing Seattle, New England, Denver, Buffalo, and now Pittsburgh. In fact, the Steelers' D entered the week with the NFL's third most sacks--and took down Baker only once.
Baker actually showed improved decision making. He was moving in the pocket. He understood when to throw balls away. You can see how far he and this team have come, and why it was reasonable to expect him to do well last night. Also, as I wrote on Monday, the addition of an All-Pro talent like Kareem Hunt into this lineup has transformed this offense. Baker now has four superb playmakers to work with. This is why I urged folks to pick up Baker, and this is also why it pained me to trade him a few days ago. With Miami, Arizona, and Cincinnati (twice) on the horizon, he'll get back to where--based on my preseason rankings--I thought he'd end up all along: as a top 12-14 QB with plenty of room to grow.
Now a word on last night's injuries. As of writing this, the health of Conner, JuJu, and Diontae heading into Week 12 is unclear. Conner appeared to re-injure his shoulder. With a winnable game against the Bengals on deck, I can see the Steelers playing it safe and rolling out Jaylen Samuels and Trey Edmunds. But we'll see. As for Pittsburgh's top two receivers, Cleveland took out both of them with helmet-to-helmet hits.
Adding to the anger Pittsburgh fans are feeling this morning, Cleveland's Myles Garrett could receive a sizable suspension for slamming a helmet on Mason Rudolph's head. Had Garrett kept his cool, the bigger story might have been Rudolph aggressively pulling on Garrett's helmet moments earlier. But that's now largely irrelevant. The Steelers will be out for revenge--certainly on the scoreboard, and possibly on the pain-board--in two weeks on their home turf. Hint: don't start Baker that week.
---
A quick look around the league: David Montgomery sat out Thursday's practice. I've tried to trade the Rams DST this week, but no takers. I'm fine with it, particularly if Montgomery ends up sitting.
When Tampa Bay last faced New Orleans, Mike didn't catch a pass, thanks to terrific coverage from Marshon Lattimore. Heading into this weekend's rematch, Lattimore's hamstring injury could keep him off the field. The ripple effect should be felt not only with Evans, but also with Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and the running game.
Matt Breida, George Kittle, and Emmanuel Sanders are big question marks for Sunday. Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne would fantastic WR3+ options if Kittle and Sanders sit, while Tevin Coleman should be good for 20+ touches if Breida's out
On November 4 I wrote, "If [Adam] Thielen can't go next week, they might just hold him out thru the Week 12 bye, rendering him useless until most leagues' final regular season game." 12 days later, that's now a strong possibility. If you're desperate for wins, it might not be too late to trade him to a sure-fire playoff team, where his value would come in handy during the postseason.
Yesterday I urged folks to start Baker Mayfield despite his expert-consensus QB-21 Week 11 ranking. Throughout the comments section I repeatedly warned against starting the expert-consensus 5th-ranked Steelers DST. And I believed the Browns would win by two+ touchdowns.
A rash of Pittsburgh injuries cast some doubt on whether all this would have played out had James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Diontae Johnson remained on the field. But the bigger story is this: Cleveland is a better team than what we've seen all year, while Pittsburgh's mostly puff midseason schedule inflated their value on both sides of the ball. Sure, there's always room for debate and what-ifs. That's sports in a nutshell.
And yet we shouldn't miss the bigger picture: By thinking past performance is always an indicator of future performance, we miss out on opportunities to improve our fantasy team's performance. Each NFL team has 15 chances during the regular season to make adjustments between games. It's been two steps forward, one step back for Cleveland all year. They got crushed by Tennessee at home, then later walloped Baltimore on the road before getting obliterated by San Francisco. Baker took 3+ sacks in four of the team's first five contests. In the last five he's taken 3+ sacks only once--while facing Seattle, New England, Denver, Buffalo, and now Pittsburgh. In fact, the Steelers' D entered the week with the NFL's third most sacks--and took down Baker only once.
Baker actually showed improved decision making. He was moving in the pocket. He understood when to throw balls away. You can see how far he and this team have come, and why it was reasonable to expect him to do well last night. Also, as I wrote on Monday, the addition of an All-Pro talent like Kareem Hunt into this lineup has transformed this offense. Baker now has four superb playmakers to work with. This is why I urged folks to pick up Baker, and this is also why it pained me to trade him a few days ago. With Miami, Arizona, and Cincinnati (twice) on the horizon, he'll get back to where--based on my preseason rankings--I thought he'd end up all along: as a top 12-14 QB with plenty of room to grow.
Now a word on last night's injuries. As of writing this, the health of Conner, JuJu, and Diontae heading into Week 12 is unclear. Conner appeared to re-injure his shoulder. With a winnable game against the Bengals on deck, I can see the Steelers playing it safe and rolling out Jaylen Samuels and Trey Edmunds. But we'll see. As for Pittsburgh's top two receivers, Cleveland took out both of them with helmet-to-helmet hits.
Adding to the anger Pittsburgh fans are feeling this morning, Cleveland's Myles Garrett could receive a sizable suspension for slamming a helmet on Mason Rudolph's head. Had Garrett kept his cool, the bigger story might have been Rudolph aggressively pulling on Garrett's helmet moments earlier. But that's now largely irrelevant. The Steelers will be out for revenge--certainly on the scoreboard, and possibly on the pain-board--in two weeks on their home turf. Hint: don't start Baker that week.
---
A quick look around the league: David Montgomery sat out Thursday's practice. I've tried to trade the Rams DST this week, but no takers. I'm fine with it, particularly if Montgomery ends up sitting.
When Tampa Bay last faced New Orleans, Mike didn't catch a pass, thanks to terrific coverage from Marshon Lattimore. Heading into this weekend's rematch, Lattimore's hamstring injury could keep him off the field. The ripple effect should be felt not only with Evans, but also with Chris Godwin, O.J. Howard, and the running game.
Matt Breida, George Kittle, and Emmanuel Sanders are big question marks for Sunday. Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne would fantastic WR3+ options if Kittle and Sanders sit, while Tevin Coleman should be good for 20+ touches if Breida's out
On November 4 I wrote, "If [Adam] Thielen can't go next week, they might just hold him out thru the Week 12 bye, rendering him useless until most leagues' final regular season game." 12 days later, that's now a strong possibility. If you're desperate for wins, it might not be too late to trade him to a sure-fire playoff team, where his value would come in handy during the postseason.