That last throw typifies what Philip Rivers has become. Looked through his career numbers after the game to see if what was happening this year was as painfully troubling as it appears. It is.
The declining franchise QB now has 2+ INTs games in seven of his past 14 regular season games. For context, he had 2+ INTs in only two of his previous 26 regular season games. Since his QB tenure officially began 2006, he's never had a worse TD-INT ratio than he has this year. And unlike in "down" years like in 2016 when his top wideouts were Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman, and Travis Benjamin, he's never been surrounded by more talent than he is this season.
Rivers is #2 all-time in consecutive QB starts. He would need to keep playing until age 42 (nearly five more years) to surpass Brett Favre's seemingly unbeatable record. The concern is that he might not make it to 40.
Compared to last year, his deep-ball completion percentage is down 10 points, and he leads the league in "interceptable" passes (according to NFL.com numbers). Meanwhile, his "clean pocket completion percentage" of 72.4% (heading into last night) was only 21st best in the NFL. Simply put, he's not hitting as many deep targets, throwing more "bad" passes, and sub-par in hitting his targets when facing minimal pressure.
With two weeks remaining in most regular seasons, Rivers & company have a bye, then travel to Denver. If you have Keenan Allen or Hunter Henry or Mike Williams, they'll be largely worthless unless you reach the postseason. And arguably the most reliable fantasy QB in 10 of the past 11 seasons (no fewer than 255 points and no more than 287) is no longer trustworthy regardless of his opponent.
Elsewhere last night, Austin Ekeler was the most talented RB out there on either side of the ball. Keenan Allen found the end zone for the first time in eight weeks. Patrick Mahomes started slow, looked good on a couple scrambles, and then found his groove. Part of his early struggles could be attributed to Tyreek Hill's early exit. My bigger issue is K.C.'s late-season schedule: @Patriots, Broncos, @Bears weeks 14-16. As for Hill, he'll have almost two weeks to recover from his hamstring injury, so don't panic yet.
The more serious injury concern lies with Damien Williams (ribs). Whether or not it's serious, his sub-par running (3.7 YPC), along with the presence of LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams, make Damien more expendable than many fantasy managers are ready to acknowledge. I've been warning against him since July, and have seen little this season (or in he previous five seasons) suggesting the 27-year-old will ever be bellcow material.
---
A few thoughts around the league. First, Chase Daniel could be primed for a terrific matchup against the Giants if Mitch Trubisky's held out. If you're looking for streaming help and didn't heed my advice weeks ago to stash Baker Mayfield (home against Miami), Daniel would be a capable top-18 streamer with upside if he doesn't cede red-zone work to David Montgomery.
Speaking of Trubisky, last year he was 5th in the NFL in QB rushing yards. averaging give carries per game for 30 yards. This year he's averaging under two carries for barely six yards. That's a shockingly large difference. About 23% of his 2018 fantasy production was on the ground. That's close to Deshaun Watson (26%) and far greater than Russell Wilson (13%). Without that in his arsenal, Trubisky has been a one-dimensional QB in a one-dimensional offense.
In L.A., Brandin Cooks is expected to return next week at home vs. Baltimore. If Robert Woods (personal) joins him, the ugly Rams passing game might actually have a shot against the unstoppable Ravens. Not a great shot, but a shot. This will probably be your last chance to stream Jared Goff (predicting 17+ points) until 2020.
James Conner is a question mark heading into next weekend's "showdown" in Cincinnati. As the Premier League's Aaron Weaver has known for months, Jaylen Samuels has been one of my top RB handcuff targets for a reason. The Steelers' friendly schedule and Samuels' versatility gives him Ekeler-like powers when operating as the #1.
Finally, on Saturday's contrarian bargains and busts I tagged Jacoby Brissett (QB-17) as a bargain, then called it "wrong" Sunday heading into SNF and MNF. Then discovered, amazingly, that none of those four QBs outperformed Brissett, making him a statistical bargain for the week. I had assumed he wouldn't remain a high-end QB2, but he did thanks to some surprisingly abysmal QB performances. So full transparency: I'm now calling that pick "correct," moving me to 76-45 (63%) on the year.
The declining franchise QB now has 2+ INTs games in seven of his past 14 regular season games. For context, he had 2+ INTs in only two of his previous 26 regular season games. Since his QB tenure officially began 2006, he's never had a worse TD-INT ratio than he has this year. And unlike in "down" years like in 2016 when his top wideouts were Tyrell Williams, Dontrelle Inman, and Travis Benjamin, he's never been surrounded by more talent than he is this season.
Rivers is #2 all-time in consecutive QB starts. He would need to keep playing until age 42 (nearly five more years) to surpass Brett Favre's seemingly unbeatable record. The concern is that he might not make it to 40.
Compared to last year, his deep-ball completion percentage is down 10 points, and he leads the league in "interceptable" passes (according to NFL.com numbers). Meanwhile, his "clean pocket completion percentage" of 72.4% (heading into last night) was only 21st best in the NFL. Simply put, he's not hitting as many deep targets, throwing more "bad" passes, and sub-par in hitting his targets when facing minimal pressure.
With two weeks remaining in most regular seasons, Rivers & company have a bye, then travel to Denver. If you have Keenan Allen or Hunter Henry or Mike Williams, they'll be largely worthless unless you reach the postseason. And arguably the most reliable fantasy QB in 10 of the past 11 seasons (no fewer than 255 points and no more than 287) is no longer trustworthy regardless of his opponent.
Elsewhere last night, Austin Ekeler was the most talented RB out there on either side of the ball. Keenan Allen found the end zone for the first time in eight weeks. Patrick Mahomes started slow, looked good on a couple scrambles, and then found his groove. Part of his early struggles could be attributed to Tyreek Hill's early exit. My bigger issue is K.C.'s late-season schedule: @Patriots, Broncos, @Bears weeks 14-16. As for Hill, he'll have almost two weeks to recover from his hamstring injury, so don't panic yet.
The more serious injury concern lies with Damien Williams (ribs). Whether or not it's serious, his sub-par running (3.7 YPC), along with the presence of LeSean McCoy and Darrel Williams, make Damien more expendable than many fantasy managers are ready to acknowledge. I've been warning against him since July, and have seen little this season (or in he previous five seasons) suggesting the 27-year-old will ever be bellcow material.
---
A few thoughts around the league. First, Chase Daniel could be primed for a terrific matchup against the Giants if Mitch Trubisky's held out. If you're looking for streaming help and didn't heed my advice weeks ago to stash Baker Mayfield (home against Miami), Daniel would be a capable top-18 streamer with upside if he doesn't cede red-zone work to David Montgomery.
Speaking of Trubisky, last year he was 5th in the NFL in QB rushing yards. averaging give carries per game for 30 yards. This year he's averaging under two carries for barely six yards. That's a shockingly large difference. About 23% of his 2018 fantasy production was on the ground. That's close to Deshaun Watson (26%) and far greater than Russell Wilson (13%). Without that in his arsenal, Trubisky has been a one-dimensional QB in a one-dimensional offense.
In L.A., Brandin Cooks is expected to return next week at home vs. Baltimore. If Robert Woods (personal) joins him, the ugly Rams passing game might actually have a shot against the unstoppable Ravens. Not a great shot, but a shot. This will probably be your last chance to stream Jared Goff (predicting 17+ points) until 2020.
James Conner is a question mark heading into next weekend's "showdown" in Cincinnati. As the Premier League's Aaron Weaver has known for months, Jaylen Samuels has been one of my top RB handcuff targets for a reason. The Steelers' friendly schedule and Samuels' versatility gives him Ekeler-like powers when operating as the #1.
Finally, on Saturday's contrarian bargains and busts I tagged Jacoby Brissett (QB-17) as a bargain, then called it "wrong" Sunday heading into SNF and MNF. Then discovered, amazingly, that none of those four QBs outperformed Brissett, making him a statistical bargain for the week. I had assumed he wouldn't remain a high-end QB2, but he did thanks to some surprisingly abysmal QB performances. So full transparency: I'm now calling that pick "correct," moving me to 76-45 (63%) on the year.