We live in a world where 2017 teammates Jay Ajayi and Kenyan Drake have gone from fantasy-irrelevant to relevant in only a few weeks. If Jordan Howard is forced to sit, Ajayi realistically could be a change-of-pace back behind Miles Sanders after a surprisingly long period of unemployment. Ajayi is only 26. He's proven. He's capable. He's one Sanders injury away from streaming startability. And as discussed a couple weeks ago, Drake is the most talented RB in Arizona's backfield. David Johnson has been exposed. It's Drake's job to lose despite a tough matchup in San Francisco. Johnson is signed for one more year, after which he'll be 29. If Arizona decides to re-sign Drake this offseason, it's possible DJ's bellcow days will be over. Incredible.
The unpredictability of the NFL is a good lead-in to my Week 11 contrarian bargains and busts. Each of the following players' values are seemingly obvious. But they're all ranked either too high or too low. On the season my unconventional picks are 69-42 (62%). So let's shock some people in Week 11.
At QB, who's up for some more Ryan Fitzpatrick? Not me, especially with Jacoby Brissett (consensus QB-17 expert ranking) back in action. I feel comfortable recommending Brissett because he's been expected to play since Wednesday. There's no good excuse for his weak ranking, except a partially decimated receiving corps. I'm unfazed. Brissett and the Colts will comfortably take out Nick Foles and the Jaguars. On the flip side, Tom Brady has nine scores and six turnovers in his past seven games. His QB-7 ranking assumes a huge rebound. I wouldn't bet on it.
At RB, Nyheim Hines (RB-40) is a solid streamer coming off a season-high seven-target effort. He's had 7+ points in four of six games and is worth the gamble if you don't have an RB. My weekly favorite Duke Johnson (RB-38) is also a nice PPR bargain despite experts' continued lack of appreciation. On the flip side, if you believe in Le'Veon Bell, his RB-8 ranking makes sense. If you're tired of waiting, it's hard to view him as more than a back-end RB2.
At WR, Kendrick Bourne (WR-69) is worth a dart throw even if Emmanuel Sanders can go. And since I'm a sucker for punishment, Ted Ginn (WR-53) can't be held down forever, particularly after the Saints' embarrassing Week 10 defeat. His streakinesss keeps most people away, but his upside is clear. Bet on him if your next best (starting) WR is a risky bet for double-digit production. On the flip side, D.J. Chark (WR-12) will have to make do with Foles at the helm. I don't love those odds.
At TE, Ryan Griffin (TE-24) is under-the-radar partly (I believe) because of some allegedly helpful statistic stating that no TE has collected more than 54 yards against the Redskins this year. If you don't have a sure-fire TE1, you're not desperate for 55+ yards (though you'll take it). You're simply looking for a score and/or 4+ receptions to give you a shot at positional respectability. Griffin can give you that, and his upside is as good as any TE's. On the flip side, not sure when Gerald Everett (TE-8) has been a TE1 four times and completely unstartable five times. In anticipation of a more run-heavy Rams offense to limit Jared Goff's mistakes, I don't anticipate Everett earning enough looks to meet expectations.
The unpredictability of the NFL is a good lead-in to my Week 11 contrarian bargains and busts. Each of the following players' values are seemingly obvious. But they're all ranked either too high or too low. On the season my unconventional picks are 69-42 (62%). So let's shock some people in Week 11.
At QB, who's up for some more Ryan Fitzpatrick? Not me, especially with Jacoby Brissett (consensus QB-17 expert ranking) back in action. I feel comfortable recommending Brissett because he's been expected to play since Wednesday. There's no good excuse for his weak ranking, except a partially decimated receiving corps. I'm unfazed. Brissett and the Colts will comfortably take out Nick Foles and the Jaguars. On the flip side, Tom Brady has nine scores and six turnovers in his past seven games. His QB-7 ranking assumes a huge rebound. I wouldn't bet on it.
At RB, Nyheim Hines (RB-40) is a solid streamer coming off a season-high seven-target effort. He's had 7+ points in four of six games and is worth the gamble if you don't have an RB. My weekly favorite Duke Johnson (RB-38) is also a nice PPR bargain despite experts' continued lack of appreciation. On the flip side, if you believe in Le'Veon Bell, his RB-8 ranking makes sense. If you're tired of waiting, it's hard to view him as more than a back-end RB2.
At WR, Kendrick Bourne (WR-69) is worth a dart throw even if Emmanuel Sanders can go. And since I'm a sucker for punishment, Ted Ginn (WR-53) can't be held down forever, particularly after the Saints' embarrassing Week 10 defeat. His streakinesss keeps most people away, but his upside is clear. Bet on him if your next best (starting) WR is a risky bet for double-digit production. On the flip side, D.J. Chark (WR-12) will have to make do with Foles at the helm. I don't love those odds.
At TE, Ryan Griffin (TE-24) is under-the-radar partly (I believe) because of some allegedly helpful statistic stating that no TE has collected more than 54 yards against the Redskins this year. If you don't have a sure-fire TE1, you're not desperate for 55+ yards (though you'll take it). You're simply looking for a score and/or 4+ receptions to give you a shot at positional respectability. Griffin can give you that, and his upside is as good as any TE's. On the flip side, not sure when Gerald Everett (TE-8) has been a TE1 four times and completely unstartable five times. In anticipation of a more run-heavy Rams offense to limit Jared Goff's mistakes, I don't anticipate Everett earning enough looks to meet expectations.