Curious whether Thursday night games are higher-scoring or lower-scoring than usual? So was I. Ran some numbers and found that last year's TNF contests averaged 50.1 total points, while all other games averaged 46.5. This year, though, the average TNF contest has produced only 40 points--10 less than last year--while all other games are averaging 45.5 (just one point less than last year).
So while non-Thursday scoring has remained fairly constant, Thursday scoring has been oddly variant. And tonight is a good test of whether this shift means something, as two middle-of-the-road scorers will face off. The host Raiders (#17 in points per game) are healthy and over-achieving. How many of you pegged them as a playoff contender this summer, particularly after Antonio Brown's hateful exit two days before the season opener?
A few months ago this team had more question marks than answers. Derek Carr, who only two years ago became the NFL's highest-paid player, was several seasons removed from his early-career heyday. Josh Jacobs was a promising rookie, but certainly wasn't tested (most carries in a season in college: 120). Tyrell Williams, the Chargers' former #3 receiver, was now expected to be Carr's #1. How would sixth-round rookie Hunter Renfrow handle a full workload? And could Darren Waller emerge from three years of obscurity?
Nine weeks later, everyone is playing better than universally expected. Carr is averaging a career-high 7.9 yards per pass and a career-high 105.1 QB rating. His sack rate has plummeted from 8.4% of passing plays in 2018 to 3.5% this year. It's odd to think he's looked better than when he threw to Amari Cooper and an in-his-prime Michael Crabtree. Meanwhile, Jacobs has emerged as a high-usage RB1, Williams is 19th in WR fantasy points per game, and Waller is nearly on pace for a Gronk-like campaign (check the numbers; I was surprised, too).
With the lowly Bengals and Jets around the corner, and home games against the Titans and Jaguars beyond, the 4-4 Raiders could actually enter the final two weeks at 9-5. Their upcoming schedule was a big reason why last week in the FF4W Premier League I traded CMC and Adam Thielen (when he was expected to play) in a package deal that sent me Jacobs, Russell Wilson, and the Pats D. I like Oakland putting up 24+ tonight, making their main four guys solid starts (Carr's more of a high-QB2 streamer), and Renfrow a very worthwhile streamer. I am a fan of no team. But it would be fascinating if this franchise emerges from the ashes of rampant dysfunction.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers are one of this season's biggest underachievers. Last year they were 12-4, nearly clinching the #1 seed (if not for a Week 16 loss to Baltimore), in what might have altered their playoff trajectory. They're scoring about a touchdown less per game, placing them 21st in the league. One reason has been Melvin Gordon's holdout and subsequent meek return (until last week's solid outing). Austin Ekeler is the #3 fantasy QB, yet his sub-pedestrian 3.8 YPC is worse than any top-16 RB not named Le'Veon.
Through the air, Philip Rivers is on pace for his second worst fantasy season since 2007. But somehow he's #1 in the NFL in passing yards. (Tom Brady is #2, which honestly shocked me.) Despite season-ending injuries to Dontrelle Inman and Travis Benjamin (because every Charger season has to include multiple season-ending receiver injuries), Rivers' arsenal includes perhaps the best collection of talent of his career.
Yet something isn't clicking. After busting out weeks 1-3, Keenan Allen hasn't cleared 12 fantasy points in any of his past six games. He's also tied for the league lead in dropped passes. Mike Williams' on pace for 1,000+ yards, but is the only top-25 wideout (in terms of yardage) who hasn't found the end zone. That's left Hunter Henry as the most consistent fantasy option, with three 15+ point performances in his four games since returning to the field.
The 4-5 Chargers are on the edge of oblivion this season. With two games remaining against the AFC West-leading Chiefs (when Patrick Mahomes surely will be back), this team realistically has to win six of their final seven contests to feel good about their playoff chances. That makes tonight a must-win situation. With Oakland assuredly putting up points, expect Rivers, who's collected 15+ fantasy points only once in his past five games, to be a QB1. I don't have a good sense of Gordon's or Ekeler's prospects (both presumably are safe to play). But I'd fire up the passing game tonight in the most favorable matchup the Chargers will have all year.
So while non-Thursday scoring has remained fairly constant, Thursday scoring has been oddly variant. And tonight is a good test of whether this shift means something, as two middle-of-the-road scorers will face off. The host Raiders (#17 in points per game) are healthy and over-achieving. How many of you pegged them as a playoff contender this summer, particularly after Antonio Brown's hateful exit two days before the season opener?
A few months ago this team had more question marks than answers. Derek Carr, who only two years ago became the NFL's highest-paid player, was several seasons removed from his early-career heyday. Josh Jacobs was a promising rookie, but certainly wasn't tested (most carries in a season in college: 120). Tyrell Williams, the Chargers' former #3 receiver, was now expected to be Carr's #1. How would sixth-round rookie Hunter Renfrow handle a full workload? And could Darren Waller emerge from three years of obscurity?
Nine weeks later, everyone is playing better than universally expected. Carr is averaging a career-high 7.9 yards per pass and a career-high 105.1 QB rating. His sack rate has plummeted from 8.4% of passing plays in 2018 to 3.5% this year. It's odd to think he's looked better than when he threw to Amari Cooper and an in-his-prime Michael Crabtree. Meanwhile, Jacobs has emerged as a high-usage RB1, Williams is 19th in WR fantasy points per game, and Waller is nearly on pace for a Gronk-like campaign (check the numbers; I was surprised, too).
With the lowly Bengals and Jets around the corner, and home games against the Titans and Jaguars beyond, the 4-4 Raiders could actually enter the final two weeks at 9-5. Their upcoming schedule was a big reason why last week in the FF4W Premier League I traded CMC and Adam Thielen (when he was expected to play) in a package deal that sent me Jacobs, Russell Wilson, and the Pats D. I like Oakland putting up 24+ tonight, making their main four guys solid starts (Carr's more of a high-QB2 streamer), and Renfrow a very worthwhile streamer. I am a fan of no team. But it would be fascinating if this franchise emerges from the ashes of rampant dysfunction.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers are one of this season's biggest underachievers. Last year they were 12-4, nearly clinching the #1 seed (if not for a Week 16 loss to Baltimore), in what might have altered their playoff trajectory. They're scoring about a touchdown less per game, placing them 21st in the league. One reason has been Melvin Gordon's holdout and subsequent meek return (until last week's solid outing). Austin Ekeler is the #3 fantasy QB, yet his sub-pedestrian 3.8 YPC is worse than any top-16 RB not named Le'Veon.
Through the air, Philip Rivers is on pace for his second worst fantasy season since 2007. But somehow he's #1 in the NFL in passing yards. (Tom Brady is #2, which honestly shocked me.) Despite season-ending injuries to Dontrelle Inman and Travis Benjamin (because every Charger season has to include multiple season-ending receiver injuries), Rivers' arsenal includes perhaps the best collection of talent of his career.
Yet something isn't clicking. After busting out weeks 1-3, Keenan Allen hasn't cleared 12 fantasy points in any of his past six games. He's also tied for the league lead in dropped passes. Mike Williams' on pace for 1,000+ yards, but is the only top-25 wideout (in terms of yardage) who hasn't found the end zone. That's left Hunter Henry as the most consistent fantasy option, with three 15+ point performances in his four games since returning to the field.
The 4-5 Chargers are on the edge of oblivion this season. With two games remaining against the AFC West-leading Chiefs (when Patrick Mahomes surely will be back), this team realistically has to win six of their final seven contests to feel good about their playoff chances. That makes tonight a must-win situation. With Oakland assuredly putting up points, expect Rivers, who's collected 15+ fantasy points only once in his past five games, to be a QB1. I don't have a good sense of Gordon's or Ekeler's prospects (both presumably are safe to play). But I'd fire up the passing game tonight in the most favorable matchup the Chargers will have all year.