Why would anyone start an unstartable QB? Why would we sit a must-start TE?
These are the questions that help define a fantasy season. Do we do what the fantasy universe tell us, or do we venture out on our own? I'm fine joining the crowd when I agree with the crowd. But let's face it: the crowd has a spotty record. Five of this week's expert-consensus top-10 QBs were not in the preseason ADP top 10. Similar surprises--some major--can be found at every position. So if we know surprises will happen, identifying some could mean the difference.
That's the background of my weekly contrarian picks--predictions that go against every, or nearly every, expert ranking. Last Saturday I hit a large majority of against-the-grain picks. On the season I'm now 61-for-100.
Kicking things off this week, I can't take the easy way out with an uber-bargain like Jacoby Brissett (expert-consensus #27 Week 10 QB). Folks started ranking him earlier this week when he was still very questionable. So of course he objectively deserves to be at least in the teens. Instead, let's focus on more challenging predictions--the ones that seems just fine to the expert community. Sam Darnold (#19) fits that mold. Whether or not Le'Veon Bell plays (and it might be better for Darnold's fantasy prospects if he doesn't), this should be a high-scoring game. Neither defense can stop anyone; 10 of the Giants' past 11 opponents have posted 27+ points. They've yielded 16+ points in 25 of their past 26 games, dating back to their last playoff appearance. Darnold will reach 250 yards and two scores, exceeding expectations.
Here's one more undervalued QB: Baker Mayfield, anyone? Sounds strange? In two of the past three weeks, the brilliant Bills have given up 21 points to Miami and 31 to Philly. The long-awaited return of adept pass-catcher Kareem Hunt gives the deservedly maligned Baker (QB-23) another potent weapon. This team has no choice but to elevate in a "win-or-they're-done" home game. Baker has yet to throw for more than one score. He'll get at least two on Sunday. And on the flip side, while I love Russell Wilson's floor, his upside will be capped in San Francisco, making his QB-8 ranking a bit aggressive.
At RB, Gus Edwards (RB-45) might not contributing in the passing game, but he's the clear #2 on the high-powered Ravens. Baltimore will be plenty busy pummeling the Bengals. Edwards is a prime candidate for mop-up work and a cheap score. For the desperate among you, I also like Tarik Cohen (RB-31) with Chicago's backs against the wall, and facing a beatable Lions defense. On the flip side, Todd Gurley hasn't exceeded 63 rushing yards since Week 1. While his RB-18 ranking seems fair, last week's 18th-best RB had 15.3. points. That seems optimistic.
At WR, no one's really talking about Adam Humphries (WR-50). Corey Davis hasn't practiced this week, so I feel comfortable recommending Humphries if you don't have a reliable WR3, and A.J. Brown (WR-38) if you're lacking a dependable WR2. On the flip side, Kenny Golladay's WR-12 seems overly aggressive on the road against the Bears.
And at TE, the somehow forgotten Jared Cook (TE-19) has a dream matchup against the Falcons. On the flip side, I'll keep warning against Greg Olsen (TE-7) until others catch on. He hasn't hit double-digits in five straight contests and is averaging only four targets per game during that span.
These are the questions that help define a fantasy season. Do we do what the fantasy universe tell us, or do we venture out on our own? I'm fine joining the crowd when I agree with the crowd. But let's face it: the crowd has a spotty record. Five of this week's expert-consensus top-10 QBs were not in the preseason ADP top 10. Similar surprises--some major--can be found at every position. So if we know surprises will happen, identifying some could mean the difference.
That's the background of my weekly contrarian picks--predictions that go against every, or nearly every, expert ranking. Last Saturday I hit a large majority of against-the-grain picks. On the season I'm now 61-for-100.
Kicking things off this week, I can't take the easy way out with an uber-bargain like Jacoby Brissett (expert-consensus #27 Week 10 QB). Folks started ranking him earlier this week when he was still very questionable. So of course he objectively deserves to be at least in the teens. Instead, let's focus on more challenging predictions--the ones that seems just fine to the expert community. Sam Darnold (#19) fits that mold. Whether or not Le'Veon Bell plays (and it might be better for Darnold's fantasy prospects if he doesn't), this should be a high-scoring game. Neither defense can stop anyone; 10 of the Giants' past 11 opponents have posted 27+ points. They've yielded 16+ points in 25 of their past 26 games, dating back to their last playoff appearance. Darnold will reach 250 yards and two scores, exceeding expectations.
Here's one more undervalued QB: Baker Mayfield, anyone? Sounds strange? In two of the past three weeks, the brilliant Bills have given up 21 points to Miami and 31 to Philly. The long-awaited return of adept pass-catcher Kareem Hunt gives the deservedly maligned Baker (QB-23) another potent weapon. This team has no choice but to elevate in a "win-or-they're-done" home game. Baker has yet to throw for more than one score. He'll get at least two on Sunday. And on the flip side, while I love Russell Wilson's floor, his upside will be capped in San Francisco, making his QB-8 ranking a bit aggressive.
At RB, Gus Edwards (RB-45) might not contributing in the passing game, but he's the clear #2 on the high-powered Ravens. Baltimore will be plenty busy pummeling the Bengals. Edwards is a prime candidate for mop-up work and a cheap score. For the desperate among you, I also like Tarik Cohen (RB-31) with Chicago's backs against the wall, and facing a beatable Lions defense. On the flip side, Todd Gurley hasn't exceeded 63 rushing yards since Week 1. While his RB-18 ranking seems fair, last week's 18th-best RB had 15.3. points. That seems optimistic.
At WR, no one's really talking about Adam Humphries (WR-50). Corey Davis hasn't practiced this week, so I feel comfortable recommending Humphries if you don't have a reliable WR3, and A.J. Brown (WR-38) if you're lacking a dependable WR2. On the flip side, Kenny Golladay's WR-12 seems overly aggressive on the road against the Bears.
And at TE, the somehow forgotten Jared Cook (TE-19) has a dream matchup against the Falcons. On the flip side, I'll keep warning against Greg Olsen (TE-7) until others catch on. He hasn't hit double-digits in five straight contests and is averaging only four targets per game during that span.