For years I wrote FF4W columns in a vacuum. My fantasy stories about friend leagues and work leagues might have been relatable for some of you. But they were still removed from your fantasy world.
Then last season I kicked off the Premier Fantasy Football League with 13 other teams, and this season expanded it to 84. Hopefully next year it will expand again, as more of you join what I think is an extraordinarily competitive league. As a result, the impact of what I write has shifted--not just for the league members, but also for me.
Here's an example: in the span of a couple weeks last month, along with sharing observations about 50+ other players, I hyped Russell Wilson as an elite QB, Josh Jacobs as a must-trade-for RB, and the Patriots as arguably the best defense (or at least the best fantasy DST) ever. First off, none of that was overly insightful. I even apologized for not anticipating Wilson's greatness this summer, showing why, using statistical evidence, it was now obvious why Seattle's relatively inferior defense was a boon to Wilson's fantasy value.
Second, because I believe what I write, I also really wanted to trade for Wilson, Jacobs, and the Patriots DST in my league. There was no hidden meaning. No sleight-of-hand. Every week, throughout the week, there are dozens of players I'm pushing and dozens more I'm urging you to sell high. There's no system to it. I'm not combing through opponents' rosters to (hint-hint) try to depress a target's value so I can scoop him up on the cheap. I'm calling it like I see it in real time. My words obviously should be taken for what they are: opinions. But transparency has always been a major component of this page. I'm trying to help thousands of you in thousands of leagues. If my repeated warnings had something to do with most of you not drafting Baker Mayfield (consensus preseason QB-5), then I'm happy.
So here's the challenge: my opponents read this page. Some of them are official FF4W commenters. Others weigh in fairly often. They're all actively engaged. My saying something doesn't mean most or even any of them buy into it. But it's a window into my thinking. My opponents know if I promote Player A, and one of them has Player A, then they can probably get more from me than if they traded with someone who wasn't as high on Player A.
That's a terrible negotiation strategy--telling all my opponents who I like and who I don't. Can't imagine a real GM publicly assessing players and still having a job. But that's what it means to compete in a league with other FF4W people.
Some examples: An opponent drafted one of my top QB targets, Jared Goff, in the seventh round--a round or two earlier than his consensus value. I quickly told him how much I wanted him. Right after Week 1 I gave up my sixth rounder (A.J. Green) and one of my favorite handcuffs (Chase Edmonds) to land him. Turned out to be an extraordinarily "nothing" trade for both of us. But at the time, I was admitting defeat, relinquishing more than I wanted to for a coveted preseason target.
Then there's Matthew Stafford (preseason QB-25), who I intended to snag in the final round--a sure-fire steal, as I made clear over the summer. Instead, an opponent beat me to it. Immediately e-mailed him, dangling my seventh-rounder (Carson Wentz) in a potential 2-for-2, but we couldn't get something done. I missed my chance.
Back to Wilson, Jacobs, and the Pats: One of my opponents had all three. The week before I had acquired Christian McCaffrey--a guy I'd been warning about for weeks with statements like "CMC is producing at a never-before-seen level. There are too many variables in the NFL to expect more of the same." Sounds fishy, right? Talking him down and then trading for him? And yet, what kind of idiot writes that, and then tries to sell him? Again, transparency. I traded for him in light of these public sentiments, and then tried to get rid of him in light of these same public sentiments. My views hadn't changed. And so I couldn't mask my concerns about him in negotiations.
I ended up packaging CMC and Adam Thielen (back when his hamstring injury wasn't expected to sideline him) as part of a 4-for-4 for Wilson, Jacobs, and the Pats. Again, my opponent could read how much I liked those three guys. I didn't have the leverage of someone who was negotiating with my cards close to my chest.
So realize I'm writing first and foremost for everybody. I'm trying to help people become "winners." This past week sums it all up: I competed against David Montgomery while also pushing him in my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week--after two months of repeatedly trying to get that same opponent to trade him to me. There's no way to untangle that. In my world, a player can be (1) a top trade target, (2) someone I trust to dominate, and (3) someone I root against--all at the same time, for very different reasons.
That's the challenge of writing about strategy on a macro level while strategizing on a micro level. Sometimes it's messy. But it's always about how publicly accurate I can be, and then, secondarily, how to win my league.
Winning a league is nice, but it's small. Public accuracy--offering the best fantasy content on the Internet--is the unattainable and uncompromisable goal I'll continue to strive for every day.
Then last season I kicked off the Premier Fantasy Football League with 13 other teams, and this season expanded it to 84. Hopefully next year it will expand again, as more of you join what I think is an extraordinarily competitive league. As a result, the impact of what I write has shifted--not just for the league members, but also for me.
Here's an example: in the span of a couple weeks last month, along with sharing observations about 50+ other players, I hyped Russell Wilson as an elite QB, Josh Jacobs as a must-trade-for RB, and the Patriots as arguably the best defense (or at least the best fantasy DST) ever. First off, none of that was overly insightful. I even apologized for not anticipating Wilson's greatness this summer, showing why, using statistical evidence, it was now obvious why Seattle's relatively inferior defense was a boon to Wilson's fantasy value.
Second, because I believe what I write, I also really wanted to trade for Wilson, Jacobs, and the Patriots DST in my league. There was no hidden meaning. No sleight-of-hand. Every week, throughout the week, there are dozens of players I'm pushing and dozens more I'm urging you to sell high. There's no system to it. I'm not combing through opponents' rosters to (hint-hint) try to depress a target's value so I can scoop him up on the cheap. I'm calling it like I see it in real time. My words obviously should be taken for what they are: opinions. But transparency has always been a major component of this page. I'm trying to help thousands of you in thousands of leagues. If my repeated warnings had something to do with most of you not drafting Baker Mayfield (consensus preseason QB-5), then I'm happy.
So here's the challenge: my opponents read this page. Some of them are official FF4W commenters. Others weigh in fairly often. They're all actively engaged. My saying something doesn't mean most or even any of them buy into it. But it's a window into my thinking. My opponents know if I promote Player A, and one of them has Player A, then they can probably get more from me than if they traded with someone who wasn't as high on Player A.
That's a terrible negotiation strategy--telling all my opponents who I like and who I don't. Can't imagine a real GM publicly assessing players and still having a job. But that's what it means to compete in a league with other FF4W people.
Some examples: An opponent drafted one of my top QB targets, Jared Goff, in the seventh round--a round or two earlier than his consensus value. I quickly told him how much I wanted him. Right after Week 1 I gave up my sixth rounder (A.J. Green) and one of my favorite handcuffs (Chase Edmonds) to land him. Turned out to be an extraordinarily "nothing" trade for both of us. But at the time, I was admitting defeat, relinquishing more than I wanted to for a coveted preseason target.
Then there's Matthew Stafford (preseason QB-25), who I intended to snag in the final round--a sure-fire steal, as I made clear over the summer. Instead, an opponent beat me to it. Immediately e-mailed him, dangling my seventh-rounder (Carson Wentz) in a potential 2-for-2, but we couldn't get something done. I missed my chance.
Back to Wilson, Jacobs, and the Pats: One of my opponents had all three. The week before I had acquired Christian McCaffrey--a guy I'd been warning about for weeks with statements like "CMC is producing at a never-before-seen level. There are too many variables in the NFL to expect more of the same." Sounds fishy, right? Talking him down and then trading for him? And yet, what kind of idiot writes that, and then tries to sell him? Again, transparency. I traded for him in light of these public sentiments, and then tried to get rid of him in light of these same public sentiments. My views hadn't changed. And so I couldn't mask my concerns about him in negotiations.
I ended up packaging CMC and Adam Thielen (back when his hamstring injury wasn't expected to sideline him) as part of a 4-for-4 for Wilson, Jacobs, and the Pats. Again, my opponent could read how much I liked those three guys. I didn't have the leverage of someone who was negotiating with my cards close to my chest.
So realize I'm writing first and foremost for everybody. I'm trying to help people become "winners." This past week sums it all up: I competed against David Montgomery while also pushing him in my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week--after two months of repeatedly trying to get that same opponent to trade him to me. There's no way to untangle that. In my world, a player can be (1) a top trade target, (2) someone I trust to dominate, and (3) someone I root against--all at the same time, for very different reasons.
That's the challenge of writing about strategy on a macro level while strategizing on a micro level. Sometimes it's messy. But it's always about how publicly accurate I can be, and then, secondarily, how to win my league.
Winning a league is nice, but it's small. Public accuracy--offering the best fantasy content on the Internet--is the unattainable and uncompromisable goal I'll continue to strive for every day.