The Premier League trade deadline is today at noon. So it's as good a time as any to divulge a strategy I've been using all season.
Think back to when you've lost this year (if you're undefeated, skip to the next paragraph). Did your opponent have a bunch of 10-to-15 point scorers? Or did s/he win thanks to one of three Mike Evans explosions, or one of several CMC or Aaron Jones blow-ups, or one of a half-dozen Lamar Jackson breakouts?
After my September draft, which in hindsight looks sub-par at best, I started plotting how to get as many great high-ceiling players as possible. Yes, they had to be great. And they also had to have huge weekly potential (not just an RB handcuff lottery ticket). Last Monday I traded Duke Johnson (#32 RB) for Calvin Ridley (#30 WR). Why? Because Ridley had a higher weekly ceiling. I could count on Duke for 6-to-16 points. I could count on Ridley for 6-to-24 (or actually 28).
Think ceiling, not floor. Think ceiling, not average. Always think ceiling.
Not all of my trades have proven successful, and not all my waiver adds have panned out. But in almost every case, I was accumulating high-ceiling players--essentially, playing the odds that if just one busted out in a given week, I'd have a great shot at winning. My team now consists of a QB (Russell Wilson) with three 30+ point efforts, a couple high-upside RBs (Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs), two WRs (Evans and Keenan Allen) who've amassed 36+ points a combined four times, and a DST (Patriots) with three 25+ point games.
Yes, this is all obvious stuff: draft and acquire as many high scorers as you can. Ridiculously obvious.
Yet it isn't. I've watched managers spend big for TEs averaging 5-7 points more than someone they can get off waivers. I've seen people reach for back-end QB1s out of desperation.
Don't do it. Find a slumping star capable of finding his groove, pay big for him (but not as big as if he'd been playing well), and hope for a turnaround. And just as importantly, focus on improvements at positions that yield the biggest one-week payoffs. 30 WRs have dominated this year with 30+ points. Last year 40 of them scored 30+. But only 19 RBs have exceeded this plateau this year, while 42 topped it last year. QBs? 19 this season and 34 last season. And only nine TEs and one DST achieved it in 2018, vs. two and two in 2019.
And what about 40+ point scorers? Three times a QB has hit that mark, and four times an RB has done it. But WRs? 10 times. So in any given week, a wideout is more than twice as likely as a quarterback or a running back to crack 40 points.
Maybe next year it'll be different. But nearly every year (look at the numbers), WRs beat out RBs in the 30+ scorers category, and RBs usually comfortably beat out QBs. An 18-point performance from a TE is nice. A 15-point DST effort is helpful. But if you're looking for a fantasy sucker punch, load up on elite WRs.
Think back to when you've lost this year (if you're undefeated, skip to the next paragraph). Did your opponent have a bunch of 10-to-15 point scorers? Or did s/he win thanks to one of three Mike Evans explosions, or one of several CMC or Aaron Jones blow-ups, or one of a half-dozen Lamar Jackson breakouts?
After my September draft, which in hindsight looks sub-par at best, I started plotting how to get as many great high-ceiling players as possible. Yes, they had to be great. And they also had to have huge weekly potential (not just an RB handcuff lottery ticket). Last Monday I traded Duke Johnson (#32 RB) for Calvin Ridley (#30 WR). Why? Because Ridley had a higher weekly ceiling. I could count on Duke for 6-to-16 points. I could count on Ridley for 6-to-24 (or actually 28).
Think ceiling, not floor. Think ceiling, not average. Always think ceiling.
Not all of my trades have proven successful, and not all my waiver adds have panned out. But in almost every case, I was accumulating high-ceiling players--essentially, playing the odds that if just one busted out in a given week, I'd have a great shot at winning. My team now consists of a QB (Russell Wilson) with three 30+ point efforts, a couple high-upside RBs (Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs), two WRs (Evans and Keenan Allen) who've amassed 36+ points a combined four times, and a DST (Patriots) with three 25+ point games.
Yes, this is all obvious stuff: draft and acquire as many high scorers as you can. Ridiculously obvious.
Yet it isn't. I've watched managers spend big for TEs averaging 5-7 points more than someone they can get off waivers. I've seen people reach for back-end QB1s out of desperation.
Don't do it. Find a slumping star capable of finding his groove, pay big for him (but not as big as if he'd been playing well), and hope for a turnaround. And just as importantly, focus on improvements at positions that yield the biggest one-week payoffs. 30 WRs have dominated this year with 30+ points. Last year 40 of them scored 30+. But only 19 RBs have exceeded this plateau this year, while 42 topped it last year. QBs? 19 this season and 34 last season. And only nine TEs and one DST achieved it in 2018, vs. two and two in 2019.
And what about 40+ point scorers? Three times a QB has hit that mark, and four times an RB has done it. But WRs? 10 times. So in any given week, a wideout is more than twice as likely as a quarterback or a running back to crack 40 points.
Maybe next year it'll be different. But nearly every year (look at the numbers), WRs beat out RBs in the 30+ scorers category, and RBs usually comfortably beat out QBs. An 18-point performance from a TE is nice. A 15-point DST effort is helpful. But if you're looking for a fantasy sucker punch, load up on elite WRs.