I'm writing this amidst a whirlwind of Premier League trade activity that's upending how I view my roster--a roster, by the way, that looks almost completely different than the one I had four weeks ago. And what happened a little over four weeks ago? I suffered my last loss--a blow-out at the hands of old fantasy friends Steve Michelson and Ross Fessenden. Only four of my 16 players from that Week 6 obliteration remain: OBJ, Rams DST, Ryquell Armstead, and Reggie Bonnafon. In fact, I have only 6-of-16 guys left from my Week 8 team.
In real life I'm fiercely loyal. In fantasy if they're not helping me, they're worthless.
Speaking of which, who here trades when things are going well? That's my favorite time to deal. Because the good times rarely stay good all season long. Most players go through ups and downs. If I've got an RB3 competing like an RB1, I won't hesitate to unload him, even at high-end RB2 value. In a perfect world, he keeps up the pace. But I don't bet on perfect. I bet on probabilities, and an RB3 playing like an RB1 doesn't usually remain an RB1 for long.
Not exactly comparable examples, but consider recent RB2 Adrian Peterson's double-digit scoring process in weeks 6, 8, and 9. With Derrius Guice returning eventually and Washington's offense limited scoring opportunities, the time to sell high was after his increasingly unusual 100-yard game two weeks ago. The same goes for recent RB2 Carlos Hyde after his 160-yard performance Week 9. He lost his second fumble in four weeks and doesn't do anything in the passing game. He can't be trusted as more than an RB3 most weeks.
Don't. Fall. In love. With. Your players. Remember the elevator analogy, with player values going up and down all year. You can ride the good times, or you can cash out and lock in higher upside--get on that elevator that's going up.
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Tonight is all about Baker Mayfield. It probably should be about Nick Chubb, or maybe a returning James Conner, or maybe a recently returning (for very different reasons) Kareem Hunt. It probably will be about OBJ and/or Jarvis Landry. But really, it's about Baker--the guy nearly everyone (except, as you know, me) loved this summer, and then eventually came to lament. 30 of 163 experts ranked him in the top 3. Only three experts joined me in ranking him outside the top 10: Rudy Gamble (Razzball), Nick Vertucci (Sundays Are For Football), and Anthony Amico (DraftKings).
Yet for weeks I've been pushing him as an underappreciated stash. His elevator had been stuck on the ground floor. His early-season schedule was tough, with contests against the Titans, Rams, Niners and Patriots, averaging 7.2 fantasy points per game. Outrageously bad. He also faced a mix of easy and tough defenses that included the Jets, Ravens, Seahawks, Broncos, and Bills. In those five contests he's averaged a respectable 17 points per game.
So do not run from Baker. Three of his next four games are with Miami, Cincy, and Arizona, then Cincy again for those who compete in Week 17. If you think he'll remain a back-end QB2 the rest of the way, you're not taking adjustments and matchups into account. Baker and this offense will figure things out. And tonight's perennial grudge match against the Steelers presents a terrific opportunity. During their stretch of five wins in six games, Pittsburgh's defense has looked great against four dysfunctional offenses: the Bengals, Chargers, Dolphins, and Rams. In fact, in a scheduling oddity, five of these six games have been at home.
Hunt's return makes a big difference. A terrific pass-catcher, he adds a lot to an offense that's often been Nick-Chubb-or-bust. Seven receptions last week were no fluke. He gives Baker a talented short-game outlet. All main Browns are worth starting, with Hunt a seemingly reliable RB3. I also like Cleveland's DST scoring 10+.
On the flip side, James Conner is expected to return and should be started purely based on volume. But he's more of a high-usage RB2 than a reliable RB1. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson probably won't exceed WR3 production. James Washington and Vance McDonald might get 2-3 receptions each.
It's been 30 years since the Browns finished the season better than the Steelers. Do not underestimate their home-field advantage tonight. I'm eyeing at least a two-touchdown win and a renewed sense of optimism for Cleveland fans everywhere.
In real life I'm fiercely loyal. In fantasy if they're not helping me, they're worthless.
Speaking of which, who here trades when things are going well? That's my favorite time to deal. Because the good times rarely stay good all season long. Most players go through ups and downs. If I've got an RB3 competing like an RB1, I won't hesitate to unload him, even at high-end RB2 value. In a perfect world, he keeps up the pace. But I don't bet on perfect. I bet on probabilities, and an RB3 playing like an RB1 doesn't usually remain an RB1 for long.
Not exactly comparable examples, but consider recent RB2 Adrian Peterson's double-digit scoring process in weeks 6, 8, and 9. With Derrius Guice returning eventually and Washington's offense limited scoring opportunities, the time to sell high was after his increasingly unusual 100-yard game two weeks ago. The same goes for recent RB2 Carlos Hyde after his 160-yard performance Week 9. He lost his second fumble in four weeks and doesn't do anything in the passing game. He can't be trusted as more than an RB3 most weeks.
Don't. Fall. In love. With. Your players. Remember the elevator analogy, with player values going up and down all year. You can ride the good times, or you can cash out and lock in higher upside--get on that elevator that's going up.
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Tonight is all about Baker Mayfield. It probably should be about Nick Chubb, or maybe a returning James Conner, or maybe a recently returning (for very different reasons) Kareem Hunt. It probably will be about OBJ and/or Jarvis Landry. But really, it's about Baker--the guy nearly everyone (except, as you know, me) loved this summer, and then eventually came to lament. 30 of 163 experts ranked him in the top 3. Only three experts joined me in ranking him outside the top 10: Rudy Gamble (Razzball), Nick Vertucci (Sundays Are For Football), and Anthony Amico (DraftKings).
Yet for weeks I've been pushing him as an underappreciated stash. His elevator had been stuck on the ground floor. His early-season schedule was tough, with contests against the Titans, Rams, Niners and Patriots, averaging 7.2 fantasy points per game. Outrageously bad. He also faced a mix of easy and tough defenses that included the Jets, Ravens, Seahawks, Broncos, and Bills. In those five contests he's averaged a respectable 17 points per game.
So do not run from Baker. Three of his next four games are with Miami, Cincy, and Arizona, then Cincy again for those who compete in Week 17. If you think he'll remain a back-end QB2 the rest of the way, you're not taking adjustments and matchups into account. Baker and this offense will figure things out. And tonight's perennial grudge match against the Steelers presents a terrific opportunity. During their stretch of five wins in six games, Pittsburgh's defense has looked great against four dysfunctional offenses: the Bengals, Chargers, Dolphins, and Rams. In fact, in a scheduling oddity, five of these six games have been at home.
Hunt's return makes a big difference. A terrific pass-catcher, he adds a lot to an offense that's often been Nick-Chubb-or-bust. Seven receptions last week were no fluke. He gives Baker a talented short-game outlet. All main Browns are worth starting, with Hunt a seemingly reliable RB3. I also like Cleveland's DST scoring 10+.
On the flip side, James Conner is expected to return and should be started purely based on volume. But he's more of a high-usage RB2 than a reliable RB1. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson probably won't exceed WR3 production. James Washington and Vance McDonald might get 2-3 receptions each.
It's been 30 years since the Browns finished the season better than the Steelers. Do not underestimate their home-field advantage tonight. I'm eyeing at least a two-touchdown win and a renewed sense of optimism for Cleveland fans everywhere.