A quick check-in on my preseason contrarian predictions, now that we're officially past the season's halfway point: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html. I pushed 10 bargains over the summer, each one highly undervalued by fantasy experts--or at least I thought: QBs Jared Goff, Jimmy G., and Matthew Stafford; RBs Devonta Freeman, Royce Freeman, and Ty Montgomery; WRs Kenny Golladay, DeVante Parker, and Trey Quinn; and TE Jason Witten. Goff (QB-10 ADP) and Jimmy (QB-21) have very slim chances of meeting my lofty expectations, while Ty Montgomery (a seemingly crazy RB-83 ADP) needs Le'Veon Bell sidelined for a game or two to make up ground, and the dwindling-usage Trey Quinn (WR-92) needs to get more involved.
On the flip side, Stafford (QB-25), Royce (RB-40), Golladay (WR-18), Parker (WR-65), and Witten (TE-25) have been steals, while Devonta (RB-16) can climb into bargain territory with a great game this weekend.
When I was researching this summer, all 10 of these players' consensus ADPs and expert rankings seemed insane. If you come across similar situations, block out the noise. Trust your findings, because 150 people out of 150 can be wrong. I mean, can anyone remember why Stafford was a near-universal bottom-8 fantasy QB? I can: among quarterbacks who played at least six games last year, he was the 5th worst. Experts thought they were being generous inching him upward. Anyone understand why Parker was a WR7? Or why Witten was deemed no better than 2018 Dallas starter Blake Jarwin (26th best TE last season)?
There are logic gaps. There are blind spots. I have blind spots every season. Shared last week why I completely missed the boat on Jimmy, never realizing San Francisco's D (which, by the way, was the consensus 18th best fantasy DST this summer) would turn the "franchise" QB into a game manager.
So appreciate the complexity of fantasy football--that no one truly *knows* anything. We believe things to be true based on evidence. What separates "good" prognosticators from "bad" ones is knowing how to interpret and value various bits of evidence. Stafford's 2018 was awful. That was enough evidence for most people. But by diving into the context surrounding his letdown, it was easy to see why a rebound was likely.
Back to the preseason predictions: here's a snapshot of my nine unconventional busts: QBs Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson; RBs James Conner, Joe Mixon, Damien Williams, and Mark Ingram; WR Davante Adams; and TE George Kittle. It's immediately obvious that I completely misjudged Murray (QB-12) and Jackson (QB-18). Like middling 2018 preseason QB Patrick Mahomes, Jackson has proven to be a transcendent fantasy force despite possessing (in my opinion) a below-average NFL receiving corps. And while there's still time for Murray to regress during this fairly tough second-half schedule, he's a huge long-shot to end up as a bust. Mark Ingram (RB-22) and George Kittle (TE-3) have also fared much better than I expected, though my early-season discomfort with Ingram after his hot start proved to be at least somewhat legit: 11.4 fantasy points per game in his last five, vs. 22.6 in his first three.
On the flip side, my seemingly outlandish August warnings about Mayfield (QB-5), Conner (RB-7), Mixon (RB-9), and Williams (RB-13) have panned out as expected, and in most cases much worse than expected. And despite his injury, it should be clear why Adams' preseason WR2 ADP was ridiculous.
So if you're keeping score (and whether I'm doing well or poorly, I hope you're keeping score, because predictions have consequences, and they deserve scrutiny), I'm on pace for 10 right and nine wrong. Again, these were all cases of zagging when the rest of the fantasy universe zigged. None were guesses. Each pick was backed by a detailed explanation of "why"--why Player A would be far better than anyone realized, why the hyped-up Player B had almost no shot at fantasy relevance, and so on.
As we close in on the end of the fantasy regular season later this month, remember that dozens of guys each week are moderately-to-vastly overvalued, and dozens more are seriously undervalued. The seemingly obvious often is not predictable. With sound research and logic, we've got a good chance of spotting things others can't.
On the flip side, Stafford (QB-25), Royce (RB-40), Golladay (WR-18), Parker (WR-65), and Witten (TE-25) have been steals, while Devonta (RB-16) can climb into bargain territory with a great game this weekend.
When I was researching this summer, all 10 of these players' consensus ADPs and expert rankings seemed insane. If you come across similar situations, block out the noise. Trust your findings, because 150 people out of 150 can be wrong. I mean, can anyone remember why Stafford was a near-universal bottom-8 fantasy QB? I can: among quarterbacks who played at least six games last year, he was the 5th worst. Experts thought they were being generous inching him upward. Anyone understand why Parker was a WR7? Or why Witten was deemed no better than 2018 Dallas starter Blake Jarwin (26th best TE last season)?
There are logic gaps. There are blind spots. I have blind spots every season. Shared last week why I completely missed the boat on Jimmy, never realizing San Francisco's D (which, by the way, was the consensus 18th best fantasy DST this summer) would turn the "franchise" QB into a game manager.
So appreciate the complexity of fantasy football--that no one truly *knows* anything. We believe things to be true based on evidence. What separates "good" prognosticators from "bad" ones is knowing how to interpret and value various bits of evidence. Stafford's 2018 was awful. That was enough evidence for most people. But by diving into the context surrounding his letdown, it was easy to see why a rebound was likely.
Back to the preseason predictions: here's a snapshot of my nine unconventional busts: QBs Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson; RBs James Conner, Joe Mixon, Damien Williams, and Mark Ingram; WR Davante Adams; and TE George Kittle. It's immediately obvious that I completely misjudged Murray (QB-12) and Jackson (QB-18). Like middling 2018 preseason QB Patrick Mahomes, Jackson has proven to be a transcendent fantasy force despite possessing (in my opinion) a below-average NFL receiving corps. And while there's still time for Murray to regress during this fairly tough second-half schedule, he's a huge long-shot to end up as a bust. Mark Ingram (RB-22) and George Kittle (TE-3) have also fared much better than I expected, though my early-season discomfort with Ingram after his hot start proved to be at least somewhat legit: 11.4 fantasy points per game in his last five, vs. 22.6 in his first three.
On the flip side, my seemingly outlandish August warnings about Mayfield (QB-5), Conner (RB-7), Mixon (RB-9), and Williams (RB-13) have panned out as expected, and in most cases much worse than expected. And despite his injury, it should be clear why Adams' preseason WR2 ADP was ridiculous.
So if you're keeping score (and whether I'm doing well or poorly, I hope you're keeping score, because predictions have consequences, and they deserve scrutiny), I'm on pace for 10 right and nine wrong. Again, these were all cases of zagging when the rest of the fantasy universe zigged. None were guesses. Each pick was backed by a detailed explanation of "why"--why Player A would be far better than anyone realized, why the hyped-up Player B had almost no shot at fantasy relevance, and so on.
As we close in on the end of the fantasy regular season later this month, remember that dozens of guys each week are moderately-to-vastly overvalued, and dozens more are seriously undervalued. The seemingly obvious often is not predictable. With sound research and logic, we've got a good chance of spotting things others can't.