Another fantastic (or dismal, depending on your point of view) Sunday in the NFL, culminating in an epic battle in Baltimore. My DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week hit big thanks to huge production out of Christian McCaffrey, Mike Evans, and Matthew Stafford, and shockingly good 19-point outings from two little-rostered DFS plays: TE Noah Fant and the Steelers DST. I'm now 4-4-1 on the season.
My contrarian bargains and busts also hit in big ways. These were players nearly every expert ranked one way, and I ranked another. Of the 11 guys I highlighted Saturday, eight hit, bringing my season total to 61 right and 39 wrong (61%). So to be clear, if you'd played it safe and made sit/start decisions based on the expert rankings for these 100 players, you would have been disappointed 61% of the time. If you'd gone completely against the grain with FF4W, you would have been happy 61% of the time. There's no simpler way to convey the value of well-placed contrarian thinking. Hopefully I can keep it up in Week 10.
And now, just like every Monday morning, here are the most notable fantasy storylines of each Sunday team:
Texans -- Duke Johnson's been one of my favorite bargain RBs for two straight weeks, and he's come through both times. Interestingly, he has nine receptions in these two contests vs. nine in his previous six contests. With Will Fuller out and Keke Coutee no longer a factor, Duke's been forced to step up.
Jaguars -- Gardner Minshew crashed hard. With Nick Foles potentially returning after the Week 10 bye, this QB battle will be closely watched. For what it's worth, I think they should stick with Minshew. The fact that Jacksonville overpaid for Foles should be irrelevant. If Foles returns to the starting lineup, downgrade all receivers.
Redskins -- They never had much of a chance, though Adrian Peterson nearly willed them to victory. Most notably, rookie Dwayne Haskins was not horrible in his first NFL start. It's his job to lose going forward, thanks to Case Keenum and Colt McCoy setting the bar so low.
Bills -- Yesterday was the day Devin Singletary officially replaced Frank Gore atop the RB depth chart--if not as an official "starter," then at least as the lead fantasy back. Gore unfortunately couldn't score from the one-yard-line, which more than anything signaled the official changing of the guard.
Bears -- David Montgomery ran terrible but still mustered 22+ fantasy points. If he can do that against Philly, it bodes well for the rest of the season.
Eagles -- Tried to trade for Zach Ertz a couple days ago. My opponent knew better. Squeaky wheels are a "thing," and Ertz was due for more attention.
Vikings -- It's been a disastrous few weeks for Adam Thielen. His loss early in this one opened the door for Laquon Treadwell (career-high 58 yards) and Olabisi Johnson (touchdown). If Thielen can't go next week, they might just hold him out thru the Week 12 bye, rendering him useless until most leagues' final regular season game.
Chiefs -- Damien Williams entered this game averaging 2.1 YPC. That's beyond bad. His 91-yard TD scamper was impressive. But don't fall back in love with him.
Titans -- A.J. Brown has been somewhat-to-very relevant in three straight. And Jonnu Smith crashed back to earth--though I still believe he can be a TE1 down the stretch against more favorable opponents.
Panthers -- With Cam Newton's season now seriously in doubt, Kyle Allen stepped up and Christian McCaffrey did his normal thing. Not counting last Week 17 (when CMC was pulled early), the all-world RB is on pace for 494 fantasy points in his past 16 games. In case it's not obvious to everyone, that's 13 points better than the greatest fantasy season in NFL history (LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006).
Jets -- Can we all agree now that Le'Veon Bell's long-awaited "breakout" might not come? He should have dominated Miami. At one point he went 12 game minutes between touches. Fantasy-wise, he got the job done with 20 points. On the field, though, he and his 3.3 YPC are a pedestrian presence.
Dolphins -- Pushed the much-maligned Ryan Fitzpatrick and much-overlooked Preston Williams hard on Saturday and into yesterday morning. Keep an eye on Williams' knee injury this week. Oh, and nice to see Mike Gesicki finally come through.
Colts -- Another rough injury: Jacoby Brissett. Brian Hoyer didn't miss a beat, proving for maybe the fifth time that he's one of the best backup QBs around. And Zach Pascal stepped up in T.Y. Hilton's absence. If Brissett misses time, Hoyer will be on the QB1 spectrum next week against Miami.
Steelers -- Jaylen Samuels was stellar through the air, and Trey Edmunds was shockingly good on the ground. With James Conner a huge question mark for next week, these two could dominate touches once again against the Rams.
Browns -- The ugliness got uglier. I warned against the overvalued Nick Chubb against a tough Denver run D. It will be fascinating to see whether Kareem Hunt can earn any run. No one I know believes Chubb will fall into a timeshare. It's outrageous to even consider, right? Except Chubb's on pace for 300+ carries. For a team that's going nowhere, it's fair to wonder if they'll continue to heavily work their franchise RB.
Broncos -- The only QB experts ranked lower than Brandon Allen this week was Dwayne Haskins. In a scheme I thought would be run-heavy, it was instead nothing-heavy: 20 pass attempts and 20 rushing attempts. Compare that to the Lions-Raiders game, for example, where each team averaged 64 plays. Strangely, Denver dominated time-of-possession. It was a perfect game plan that, on the whole, was perfectly executed. I wouldn't suggest running out to get Allen in two-QB leagues, since his next three weeks are bye, @Vikings, @Bills.
Lions -- Speaking of Detroit vs. Oakland, Matthew Stafford & company did it again (though they couldn't pull out the win). Stafford is now the #5 fantasy QB, and Kenny Golladay is the #9 fantasy WR. I went contrarian on both this summer, and both are far exceeding universal expectations. Elsewhere, the loss of Tra Carson elected J.D. McKissic and the returning Paul Perkins to more prominent roles, and they both took advantage. Ty Johnson wilted.
Raiders -- A few days ago I traded CMC, Adam Thielen, Daniel Jones, and the Eagles DST for Josh Jacobs, Russell Wilson, Justin Tucker, and the Patriots D. Jacobs' second-half schedule should position him for RB1 production, and yesterday's dominating performance--his third of the season--should be replicated several more times this year. Interestingly, Jalen Richard out-touched DeAndre Washington in the many-years battle for handcuff duties (hint: if Jacobs goes down, those two likely will split touches).
Buccaneers -- A surprisingly terrific game out of Jameis Winston, while Mike Evans continued to shake off his slow start. Incredibly, Evans is now the #2 fantasy WR, while Chris Godwin is also incredibly at #4. And finally, Ronald Jones got the touches he's deserved all season, while Peyton Barber was the afterthought he should have been all season.
Seahawks -- What role will Josh Gordon play? Hard to see much of any role with Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf on fire.
Packers -- A brutal loss. Most notably, Davante Adams had 11 targets in his long-awaited return--a good sign going forward, although my preseason warnings of his overratedness still stand.
Chargers -- A lot to unpack here. Only four touches for afterthought Keenan Allen. Very strong numbers from Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. No scores from Phillip Rivers. It was an odd day on both sides of the ball.
Patriots -- The naysayers who pointed to a cakewalk first-half schedule got the last laugh last night. New England looked largely outmatched, and Tom Brady looked mortal. His QB rating is his second-lowest since 2006. The defense was exposed. Most notably, Mohamed Sanu came up big. For this week, at least, I was wrong to knock him.
Ravens -- A shockingly impressive win. Lamar Jackson dominated despite throwing for only 163 yards. No QB averages more fantasy points per game. He's about a half-point-per-game shy of Patrick Mahomes' unprecedented 2018 mark.
My contrarian bargains and busts also hit in big ways. These were players nearly every expert ranked one way, and I ranked another. Of the 11 guys I highlighted Saturday, eight hit, bringing my season total to 61 right and 39 wrong (61%). So to be clear, if you'd played it safe and made sit/start decisions based on the expert rankings for these 100 players, you would have been disappointed 61% of the time. If you'd gone completely against the grain with FF4W, you would have been happy 61% of the time. There's no simpler way to convey the value of well-placed contrarian thinking. Hopefully I can keep it up in Week 10.
And now, just like every Monday morning, here are the most notable fantasy storylines of each Sunday team:
Texans -- Duke Johnson's been one of my favorite bargain RBs for two straight weeks, and he's come through both times. Interestingly, he has nine receptions in these two contests vs. nine in his previous six contests. With Will Fuller out and Keke Coutee no longer a factor, Duke's been forced to step up.
Jaguars -- Gardner Minshew crashed hard. With Nick Foles potentially returning after the Week 10 bye, this QB battle will be closely watched. For what it's worth, I think they should stick with Minshew. The fact that Jacksonville overpaid for Foles should be irrelevant. If Foles returns to the starting lineup, downgrade all receivers.
Redskins -- They never had much of a chance, though Adrian Peterson nearly willed them to victory. Most notably, rookie Dwayne Haskins was not horrible in his first NFL start. It's his job to lose going forward, thanks to Case Keenum and Colt McCoy setting the bar so low.
Bills -- Yesterday was the day Devin Singletary officially replaced Frank Gore atop the RB depth chart--if not as an official "starter," then at least as the lead fantasy back. Gore unfortunately couldn't score from the one-yard-line, which more than anything signaled the official changing of the guard.
Bears -- David Montgomery ran terrible but still mustered 22+ fantasy points. If he can do that against Philly, it bodes well for the rest of the season.
Eagles -- Tried to trade for Zach Ertz a couple days ago. My opponent knew better. Squeaky wheels are a "thing," and Ertz was due for more attention.
Vikings -- It's been a disastrous few weeks for Adam Thielen. His loss early in this one opened the door for Laquon Treadwell (career-high 58 yards) and Olabisi Johnson (touchdown). If Thielen can't go next week, they might just hold him out thru the Week 12 bye, rendering him useless until most leagues' final regular season game.
Chiefs -- Damien Williams entered this game averaging 2.1 YPC. That's beyond bad. His 91-yard TD scamper was impressive. But don't fall back in love with him.
Titans -- A.J. Brown has been somewhat-to-very relevant in three straight. And Jonnu Smith crashed back to earth--though I still believe he can be a TE1 down the stretch against more favorable opponents.
Panthers -- With Cam Newton's season now seriously in doubt, Kyle Allen stepped up and Christian McCaffrey did his normal thing. Not counting last Week 17 (when CMC was pulled early), the all-world RB is on pace for 494 fantasy points in his past 16 games. In case it's not obvious to everyone, that's 13 points better than the greatest fantasy season in NFL history (LaDainian Tomlinson, 2006).
Jets -- Can we all agree now that Le'Veon Bell's long-awaited "breakout" might not come? He should have dominated Miami. At one point he went 12 game minutes between touches. Fantasy-wise, he got the job done with 20 points. On the field, though, he and his 3.3 YPC are a pedestrian presence.
Dolphins -- Pushed the much-maligned Ryan Fitzpatrick and much-overlooked Preston Williams hard on Saturday and into yesterday morning. Keep an eye on Williams' knee injury this week. Oh, and nice to see Mike Gesicki finally come through.
Colts -- Another rough injury: Jacoby Brissett. Brian Hoyer didn't miss a beat, proving for maybe the fifth time that he's one of the best backup QBs around. And Zach Pascal stepped up in T.Y. Hilton's absence. If Brissett misses time, Hoyer will be on the QB1 spectrum next week against Miami.
Steelers -- Jaylen Samuels was stellar through the air, and Trey Edmunds was shockingly good on the ground. With James Conner a huge question mark for next week, these two could dominate touches once again against the Rams.
Browns -- The ugliness got uglier. I warned against the overvalued Nick Chubb against a tough Denver run D. It will be fascinating to see whether Kareem Hunt can earn any run. No one I know believes Chubb will fall into a timeshare. It's outrageous to even consider, right? Except Chubb's on pace for 300+ carries. For a team that's going nowhere, it's fair to wonder if they'll continue to heavily work their franchise RB.
Broncos -- The only QB experts ranked lower than Brandon Allen this week was Dwayne Haskins. In a scheme I thought would be run-heavy, it was instead nothing-heavy: 20 pass attempts and 20 rushing attempts. Compare that to the Lions-Raiders game, for example, where each team averaged 64 plays. Strangely, Denver dominated time-of-possession. It was a perfect game plan that, on the whole, was perfectly executed. I wouldn't suggest running out to get Allen in two-QB leagues, since his next three weeks are bye, @Vikings, @Bills.
Lions -- Speaking of Detroit vs. Oakland, Matthew Stafford & company did it again (though they couldn't pull out the win). Stafford is now the #5 fantasy QB, and Kenny Golladay is the #9 fantasy WR. I went contrarian on both this summer, and both are far exceeding universal expectations. Elsewhere, the loss of Tra Carson elected J.D. McKissic and the returning Paul Perkins to more prominent roles, and they both took advantage. Ty Johnson wilted.
Raiders -- A few days ago I traded CMC, Adam Thielen, Daniel Jones, and the Eagles DST for Josh Jacobs, Russell Wilson, Justin Tucker, and the Patriots D. Jacobs' second-half schedule should position him for RB1 production, and yesterday's dominating performance--his third of the season--should be replicated several more times this year. Interestingly, Jalen Richard out-touched DeAndre Washington in the many-years battle for handcuff duties (hint: if Jacobs goes down, those two likely will split touches).
Buccaneers -- A surprisingly terrific game out of Jameis Winston, while Mike Evans continued to shake off his slow start. Incredibly, Evans is now the #2 fantasy WR, while Chris Godwin is also incredibly at #4. And finally, Ronald Jones got the touches he's deserved all season, while Peyton Barber was the afterthought he should have been all season.
Seahawks -- What role will Josh Gordon play? Hard to see much of any role with Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf on fire.
Packers -- A brutal loss. Most notably, Davante Adams had 11 targets in his long-awaited return--a good sign going forward, although my preseason warnings of his overratedness still stand.
Chargers -- A lot to unpack here. Only four touches for afterthought Keenan Allen. Very strong numbers from Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. No scores from Phillip Rivers. It was an odd day on both sides of the ball.
Patriots -- The naysayers who pointed to a cakewalk first-half schedule got the last laugh last night. New England looked largely outmatched, and Tom Brady looked mortal. His QB rating is his second-lowest since 2006. The defense was exposed. Most notably, Mohamed Sanu came up big. For this week, at least, I was wrong to knock him.
Ravens -- A shockingly impressive win. Lamar Jackson dominated despite throwing for only 163 yards. No QB averages more fantasy points per game. He's about a half-point-per-game shy of Patrick Mahomes' unprecedented 2018 mark.