It's painfully ironic that one of my favorite preseason bargains is arguably the biggest underperformer on one of the best NFL teams. While Jimmy Garoppolo's 93.6 passer rating is solid, it's also 23rd among QBs with 50 or more attempts. He's 27th in fantasy points per game, just behind three backup QBs thrust into starting roles (Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater, and Chase Daniel) and further behind the benched Marcus Mariota and Andy Dalton.
Now, it's not as if he's flailing. His 7.9 yards per attempt place him in the top 10. San Francisco leads the league in rushing attempts per game (38.9). Their stout defense makes Jimmy G. largely a game manager. He's attempted only 73 passes in the second half, and only 23 in the fourth quarter. Compare that to the other elite team with the elite defense, the Patriots: Tom Brady thrown it 128 times in the second half and 43 times in the fourth, despite not really needing to. In fact, Brady's attempted 38.6 passes per game compared to Jimmy's 27. Bump Jimmy's throws by 30% and his corresponding fantasy production by 30%, and he's suddenly in the top 16 in points per game between Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins.
My mistake this summer was not buying to the Niners' D. I thought Jimmy would be forced to sling it more, and that an improved receiving corps (a healthy Dante Pettis, rookie Deebo Samuel, a deeper pass-catching backfield) would propel him into near-weekly startability.
Instead, San Francisco has successfully contained the Rams, Panthers, and other strong-to-decent offenses. It seems inconceivable that Arizona will figure them out. Not at all impossible. But unlikely. Arizona's 11th worst in yards per game. Their strength, the running game, has been marred by injuries to David Johnson and Chase Edmonds. As you saw a couple days ago, I'm higher than most on Kenyan Drake. But in his first game in Arizona, who knows whether he'll get a full load or, based on coaches' recent quotes, a "manageable" or "in some capacity" load. None of this can be predicted. If you're desperate and DJ sits, I'd use a dart throw on Drake. His non-TD points window is somewhere in the 4-7 point range.
The Niners are third in sacks per game and #2 in opposing QB rating. Kyler Murray will need an optimal performance to keep this offense moving. He's played at his best against bottom-feeder defenses like Detroit's, Cincinnati's, and Atlanta's. Tonight marks an unprecedently tough test. His odds of exceeding his consensus QB-16 Week 9 ranking are slim. Although Christian Kirk's been hard to bench, I'd be wary of starting any Cardinal as anything more than a WR3/4.
For the Niners, beyond the suddenly All-Pro-caiber Tevin Coleman, injuries make it difficult to know who among Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson will step up. A healthy Breida would be an intriguing RB3 given his consistent volume since the season's opening weekend. But beyond Coleman, there are no sure things (not that "sure things" are even a "thing" in fantasy).
Meanwhile, the recently acquired Emmanuel Sanders is a good bet to achieve WR3+ production, and George Kittle has been a must-start TE most of the year. Beyond that, given Jimmy's limited role, any other receiver (Deebo Samuel, Dante Pettis, Marquise Goodwin) will be a prayer likely to go unanswered.
Now, it's not as if he's flailing. His 7.9 yards per attempt place him in the top 10. San Francisco leads the league in rushing attempts per game (38.9). Their stout defense makes Jimmy G. largely a game manager. He's attempted only 73 passes in the second half, and only 23 in the fourth quarter. Compare that to the other elite team with the elite defense, the Patriots: Tom Brady thrown it 128 times in the second half and 43 times in the fourth, despite not really needing to. In fact, Brady's attempted 38.6 passes per game compared to Jimmy's 27. Bump Jimmy's throws by 30% and his corresponding fantasy production by 30%, and he's suddenly in the top 16 in points per game between Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins.
My mistake this summer was not buying to the Niners' D. I thought Jimmy would be forced to sling it more, and that an improved receiving corps (a healthy Dante Pettis, rookie Deebo Samuel, a deeper pass-catching backfield) would propel him into near-weekly startability.
Instead, San Francisco has successfully contained the Rams, Panthers, and other strong-to-decent offenses. It seems inconceivable that Arizona will figure them out. Not at all impossible. But unlikely. Arizona's 11th worst in yards per game. Their strength, the running game, has been marred by injuries to David Johnson and Chase Edmonds. As you saw a couple days ago, I'm higher than most on Kenyan Drake. But in his first game in Arizona, who knows whether he'll get a full load or, based on coaches' recent quotes, a "manageable" or "in some capacity" load. None of this can be predicted. If you're desperate and DJ sits, I'd use a dart throw on Drake. His non-TD points window is somewhere in the 4-7 point range.
The Niners are third in sacks per game and #2 in opposing QB rating. Kyler Murray will need an optimal performance to keep this offense moving. He's played at his best against bottom-feeder defenses like Detroit's, Cincinnati's, and Atlanta's. Tonight marks an unprecedently tough test. His odds of exceeding his consensus QB-16 Week 9 ranking are slim. Although Christian Kirk's been hard to bench, I'd be wary of starting any Cardinal as anything more than a WR3/4.
For the Niners, beyond the suddenly All-Pro-caiber Tevin Coleman, injuries make it difficult to know who among Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, and Jeff Wilson will step up. A healthy Breida would be an intriguing RB3 given his consistent volume since the season's opening weekend. But beyond Coleman, there are no sure things (not that "sure things" are even a "thing" in fantasy).
Meanwhile, the recently acquired Emmanuel Sanders is a good bet to achieve WR3+ production, and George Kittle has been a must-start TE most of the year. Beyond that, given Jimmy's limited role, any other receiver (Deebo Samuel, Dante Pettis, Marquise Goodwin) will be a prayer likely to go unanswered.