Last week's dominant 24-point Chiefs win was a somewhat unusual Thursday Night Football blowout, at least in the last couple years. In the past 25 TNF contests, 15 have been decided by 14 points or less. 11 have been decided by seven points or less. So from a fantasy perspective, normally we can expect both teams to continue using their full arsenals deep into the second half. Last week, eight of Kansas City's 10 fourth-quarter offensive plays were runs. That's a full quarter of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and fringe fantasy receivers essentially doing nothing.
Conversely, the Flacco-impaired Broncos were in full heave mode during those final 15 minutes. Only five of their 18 fourth-quarter offensive plays--and only 10 of their 31 second-half plays--were runs. So if you started Phillip Lindsay, you were staring at a big halftime hole that would be tough to dig out of. And if Royce Freeman's opening-drive TD bailed you out early, you had little more to cheer about as the game wore on. And if you're thinking this game flow favored Denver receivers, remember: we're talking about Joe Flacco. His final 15 pass plays went for 31 yards--only 23 of which went to wideouts.
This all sets up what we might see tonight: a Vikings squad obliterating an outmatched Redskins unit on both sides of the ball. Surely the fourth quarter will feature a lot of Minnesota runs--presumably from Alexander Mattison while Dalvin Cook rests comfortably on the sideline, or even from third-stringer Mike Boone if things get really out of hand. And we might also see Case Keenum--or possibly Dwayne Haskins--airing it out in the final 15 minutes, picking up garbage yardage at nobody's expense, unless your opponent started Terry McLaurin.
At the same time, there's a common misconception that impending blowouts make it risky to start the better team's QB or receivers. That might only hold true if that team's first 3-4 touchdowns are rushing. We simply don't know how it will shake out. 14 times this season Kirk Cousins has thrown it from inside his opponent's 11-yard-line. Five times (36%) they went for scores. By comparison, 18 times Dalvin Cook has run it from inside the opposing 11, culminating in six scores (33%).
There's no reasonable way to predict how these scenarios will play out tonight. Advantage Cousins at the 6-10 yard line, advantage Cook inside the 5. Beyond that, if you have any Vikings on your team, be grateful and start them with greater confidence than normal. Remember, this was a team in disarray only a few weeks ago. In their three games since they've averaged 36 points and a bucket-load of yards. With Adam Thielen out, the calculus is even easier: Cousins, Cook, and Stefon Diggs are must-starts. Olabisi Johnson's consensus WR-55 Week 8 ranking is insanely misguided; start him as a WR3/4 with better-than-average TD potential. Kyle Rudolph is worth streaming as a veteran red-zone threat. And the desperate among you should strongly consider Irv Smith at TE or the previously mentioned Mattison; Smith arguably is talented enough to start over Rudolph, and Mattison could notch double-digit touches if Minnesota pounces early and often.
On the flip side, DFS folks in single-game contests should consider making one small wager on the ultra-cheap Dwayne Haskins; if this game is as lopsided as expected, there's no reasonable way Keenum finishes the game. And with Chris Thompson sidelined and the ailing Adrian Peterson compiling 43 rushing attempts in the previous 11 days, I'm eyeing Wendell Smallwood (RB-51 ranking) as a much higher-volume option that anyone realizes. Start him as a desperation RB3/4 if you don't have someone who can reliably get you 8+ points.
Conversely, the Flacco-impaired Broncos were in full heave mode during those final 15 minutes. Only five of their 18 fourth-quarter offensive plays--and only 10 of their 31 second-half plays--were runs. So if you started Phillip Lindsay, you were staring at a big halftime hole that would be tough to dig out of. And if Royce Freeman's opening-drive TD bailed you out early, you had little more to cheer about as the game wore on. And if you're thinking this game flow favored Denver receivers, remember: we're talking about Joe Flacco. His final 15 pass plays went for 31 yards--only 23 of which went to wideouts.
This all sets up what we might see tonight: a Vikings squad obliterating an outmatched Redskins unit on both sides of the ball. Surely the fourth quarter will feature a lot of Minnesota runs--presumably from Alexander Mattison while Dalvin Cook rests comfortably on the sideline, or even from third-stringer Mike Boone if things get really out of hand. And we might also see Case Keenum--or possibly Dwayne Haskins--airing it out in the final 15 minutes, picking up garbage yardage at nobody's expense, unless your opponent started Terry McLaurin.
At the same time, there's a common misconception that impending blowouts make it risky to start the better team's QB or receivers. That might only hold true if that team's first 3-4 touchdowns are rushing. We simply don't know how it will shake out. 14 times this season Kirk Cousins has thrown it from inside his opponent's 11-yard-line. Five times (36%) they went for scores. By comparison, 18 times Dalvin Cook has run it from inside the opposing 11, culminating in six scores (33%).
There's no reasonable way to predict how these scenarios will play out tonight. Advantage Cousins at the 6-10 yard line, advantage Cook inside the 5. Beyond that, if you have any Vikings on your team, be grateful and start them with greater confidence than normal. Remember, this was a team in disarray only a few weeks ago. In their three games since they've averaged 36 points and a bucket-load of yards. With Adam Thielen out, the calculus is even easier: Cousins, Cook, and Stefon Diggs are must-starts. Olabisi Johnson's consensus WR-55 Week 8 ranking is insanely misguided; start him as a WR3/4 with better-than-average TD potential. Kyle Rudolph is worth streaming as a veteran red-zone threat. And the desperate among you should strongly consider Irv Smith at TE or the previously mentioned Mattison; Smith arguably is talented enough to start over Rudolph, and Mattison could notch double-digit touches if Minnesota pounces early and often.
On the flip side, DFS folks in single-game contests should consider making one small wager on the ultra-cheap Dwayne Haskins; if this game is as lopsided as expected, there's no reasonable way Keenum finishes the game. And with Chris Thompson sidelined and the ailing Adrian Peterson compiling 43 rushing attempts in the previous 11 days, I'm eyeing Wendell Smallwood (RB-51 ranking) as a much higher-volume option that anyone realizes. Start him as a desperation RB3/4 if you don't have someone who can reliably get you 8+ points.