For a while yesterday, Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like vintage Ryan Fitzpatrick, picking apart Pittsburgh's defense in the first quarter with 82 yards and two touchdowns. In his next four drives spanning 30 minutes he threw for only 45 yards while committing two turnovers. He added a third turnover later. It was as ugly a three quarters as you'll see from a QB with a history of ugly (and quite brilliant) performances. I've always had a soft spot for Fitz as a former 250th overall draft pick and seven-time NFL cast-off who's desperately trying to prolong an NFL career that's far exceeded most people's expectations.
Meanwhile, the Mark Walton era began as poorly as one might assume the FitzMagic era will someday end. Miami's newly installed bellcow collected 35 yards on 11 carries, caught three balls, and committed a fourth-quarter fumble in Steeler territory to effectively put the game out of reach. He'll face a friendlier Jets defense next week at home. Beyond that, as I've been saying for weeks, Walton's true value will be realize Week 16 against Cincinnati. Besides the Jets and Bengals, he'll probably be nothing more than a TD-dependent RB3/4 the rest of the way. But he needs to do well enough to remain a bellcow in Week 16.
For Pittsburgh, James Conner dominated a hapless Miami defense that's yielded the second most rushing yards per game (Cincy is worse, for those keeping score). If you watched last night, you saw monster holes opened up for Conner. No doubt, his touchdown run was fantastic. But if his shoulder injury is minor, I strongly believe he'll revert to RB2 territory. And if it’s major, fire up Jaylen Samuels as an RB2.
Mason Rudolph and his receiving corps did what they needed to do against an overmatched opponent. It's not as if we can say, "JuJu Smith-Schuster will be fine now" or "Diontae Johnson is a worthy streamer." Facing Miami is like eating Thanksgiving dinner. You expect the food to be good.
But don't get me started on Arbor Day brunch.
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That Kenyan Drake trade is gonna test a lot of managers' patience. Those who invested big in David Johnson hoped (perhaps beyond hope) that he'd go back to being a bellcow when healthy, despite Chase Edmonds' breakout Week 7 performance. The Edmonds crowd had their own plans, hoping to ride the hot hand with DJ on the mend, and then enjoying at least RB3 production as a split-back.
Here's the problem with Drake: he's good. Before the Dolphins organization decided to trot out their own version of an NBA G-League squad, Drake was more than solid. Last year he was the 14th best fantasy RB with a 4.5 YPC (nearly a yard better than DJ) despite running behind an atrocious o-line, and he caught 53 balls. The year before that he bided his time until earning the bellcow job in Week 13--the start of a three-game stretch of 23+ fantasy points per contest. In one of those games against Denver's #1 run defense he exploded for 120 yards and a score on 23 carries.
With few exceptions, I do all my own research. Ran the numbers last night and discovered no running back logged more yards against the Broncos' vaunted D that season. In fact, only one other RB cleared 77 rushing yards, and only one other exceeded 55 yards.
Now sure, that was two years ago. But Drake's still only 25. He's a versatile back with a strong track record and bellcow capabilities. The danger here fantasy-wise is that he's not some T.J. Yeldon fall-back option when the starter's hurt. The danger is that Drake--when mixed with a healthy DJ and Edmonds--could render this backfield unstartable, at least in the short term.
That's why if I had DJ, I'd trade him to whoever has Edmonds or Drake if I could get top-20 positional value, or probably a little less. Same if I had Edmonds, trading him to whoever has one of the other two. It won't be worth the headache to decide each week whether to roll the dice or start with someone safer with less upside. All I know is that Drake remains mostly worthless from a long-term perspective. And that shouldn't be; he has just as much right to backfield touches as DJ or Edmonds. Unfortunately, he'll be tested Thursday against the brutal 49ers D. But a competent performance would make him hard for Kliff Kingsbury to bench going forward.
Meanwhile, the Mark Walton era began as poorly as one might assume the FitzMagic era will someday end. Miami's newly installed bellcow collected 35 yards on 11 carries, caught three balls, and committed a fourth-quarter fumble in Steeler territory to effectively put the game out of reach. He'll face a friendlier Jets defense next week at home. Beyond that, as I've been saying for weeks, Walton's true value will be realize Week 16 against Cincinnati. Besides the Jets and Bengals, he'll probably be nothing more than a TD-dependent RB3/4 the rest of the way. But he needs to do well enough to remain a bellcow in Week 16.
For Pittsburgh, James Conner dominated a hapless Miami defense that's yielded the second most rushing yards per game (Cincy is worse, for those keeping score). If you watched last night, you saw monster holes opened up for Conner. No doubt, his touchdown run was fantastic. But if his shoulder injury is minor, I strongly believe he'll revert to RB2 territory. And if it’s major, fire up Jaylen Samuels as an RB2.
Mason Rudolph and his receiving corps did what they needed to do against an overmatched opponent. It's not as if we can say, "JuJu Smith-Schuster will be fine now" or "Diontae Johnson is a worthy streamer." Facing Miami is like eating Thanksgiving dinner. You expect the food to be good.
But don't get me started on Arbor Day brunch.
---
That Kenyan Drake trade is gonna test a lot of managers' patience. Those who invested big in David Johnson hoped (perhaps beyond hope) that he'd go back to being a bellcow when healthy, despite Chase Edmonds' breakout Week 7 performance. The Edmonds crowd had their own plans, hoping to ride the hot hand with DJ on the mend, and then enjoying at least RB3 production as a split-back.
Here's the problem with Drake: he's good. Before the Dolphins organization decided to trot out their own version of an NBA G-League squad, Drake was more than solid. Last year he was the 14th best fantasy RB with a 4.5 YPC (nearly a yard better than DJ) despite running behind an atrocious o-line, and he caught 53 balls. The year before that he bided his time until earning the bellcow job in Week 13--the start of a three-game stretch of 23+ fantasy points per contest. In one of those games against Denver's #1 run defense he exploded for 120 yards and a score on 23 carries.
With few exceptions, I do all my own research. Ran the numbers last night and discovered no running back logged more yards against the Broncos' vaunted D that season. In fact, only one other RB cleared 77 rushing yards, and only one other exceeded 55 yards.
Now sure, that was two years ago. But Drake's still only 25. He's a versatile back with a strong track record and bellcow capabilities. The danger here fantasy-wise is that he's not some T.J. Yeldon fall-back option when the starter's hurt. The danger is that Drake--when mixed with a healthy DJ and Edmonds--could render this backfield unstartable, at least in the short term.
That's why if I had DJ, I'd trade him to whoever has Edmonds or Drake if I could get top-20 positional value, or probably a little less. Same if I had Edmonds, trading him to whoever has one of the other two. It won't be worth the headache to decide each week whether to roll the dice or start with someone safer with less upside. All I know is that Drake remains mostly worthless from a long-term perspective. And that shouldn't be; he has just as much right to backfield touches as DJ or Edmonds. Unfortunately, he'll be tested Thursday against the brutal 49ers D. But a competent performance would make him hard for Kliff Kingsbury to bench going forward.