Time for another weekly round of bargains of busts--players I think are undervalued or overvalued based on universal or near-universal expert opinion. As always, I'm not taking advantage of late-week injuries or other late-week events. For example, even though Jonnu Smith has a ridiculous consensus TE-51 Week 8 ranking, that's probably largely due to experts' belief that Delanie Walker would start. With Walker ruled out yesterday, I can't reasonably call out experts for underestimating Smith's value.
For those keeping score, I climbed to .500 for Week 7 thanks to the overrated Tom Brady's anticipated bust, putting me at 44-for-76 (58%) on the season. Here are my Week 8 picks:
At QB, Mitch Trubisky (consensus #25 Week 8 ranking) isn't on anyone's radar. He's the 32nd best fantasy QB this year (based on points per game). But throw all that out the window in a home matchup against a Chargers D yielding the fifth best passer rating to opposing QBs. I also like Mason Rudolph (#18) as a streamer against the sub-lowly Dolphins, which have now given up 16 TD passes to go with one interception and a measly seven sacks. On the flip side, while Kyler Murray has proven me wrong all season, his QB-8 ranking this week in New Orleans is too aggressive.
At RB, I'm rolling once again with Duke Johnson (RB-40) against the Raiders squad that hasn't held an opponent until 21 points since Week 1 against the Broncos. It's easy to see Houston posting 30+, with Johnson sneaking in double-digit fantasy points. There's also room for Darrell Henderson (RB-36) to strengthen his grip on the Rams' #2 RB role, in a home contest against the lowly Bengals; Henderson could see significant fourth-quarter run--enough to push him into the RB3/streaming camp. On the flip side, it's hard to imagine Nick Chubb justifying his RB-10 ranking while facing the vaunted Patriots.
At WR, although remaining officially questionable for Sunday, Tyrell Williams has been practicing all week, making his WR-70 ranking a complete oversight. He should be in the 40s at worst, and of course his upside is strong in a game where Derek Carr could be throwing 40+ times. Sammy Watkins (WR-65) is in the same boat, practicing all week, yet getting no love in the rankings department. Sure, he hasn't done much since blowing up Week 1. And yes, Matt Moore will be quarterbacking. But Watkins is one of the best off-the-radar streamers out there. Also, while Zach Pascal's Week 7 breakout probably won't be the new norm, he deserves more credit than his WR-60 ranking. And Ted Ginn (WR-51) should be much better in a plus matchup. On the flip side, Chris Godwin (WR-4) is too high facing a fairly tough Tennessee defense.
At TE, if you're desperate, Tyler Higbee (TE-32) is worth a dart throw in a game that should see 4+ Ram scores. On the flip side, Greg Olsen (TE-10) won't be startable in San Francisco.
For those keeping score, I climbed to .500 for Week 7 thanks to the overrated Tom Brady's anticipated bust, putting me at 44-for-76 (58%) on the season. Here are my Week 8 picks:
At QB, Mitch Trubisky (consensus #25 Week 8 ranking) isn't on anyone's radar. He's the 32nd best fantasy QB this year (based on points per game). But throw all that out the window in a home matchup against a Chargers D yielding the fifth best passer rating to opposing QBs. I also like Mason Rudolph (#18) as a streamer against the sub-lowly Dolphins, which have now given up 16 TD passes to go with one interception and a measly seven sacks. On the flip side, while Kyler Murray has proven me wrong all season, his QB-8 ranking this week in New Orleans is too aggressive.
At RB, I'm rolling once again with Duke Johnson (RB-40) against the Raiders squad that hasn't held an opponent until 21 points since Week 1 against the Broncos. It's easy to see Houston posting 30+, with Johnson sneaking in double-digit fantasy points. There's also room for Darrell Henderson (RB-36) to strengthen his grip on the Rams' #2 RB role, in a home contest against the lowly Bengals; Henderson could see significant fourth-quarter run--enough to push him into the RB3/streaming camp. On the flip side, it's hard to imagine Nick Chubb justifying his RB-10 ranking while facing the vaunted Patriots.
At WR, although remaining officially questionable for Sunday, Tyrell Williams has been practicing all week, making his WR-70 ranking a complete oversight. He should be in the 40s at worst, and of course his upside is strong in a game where Derek Carr could be throwing 40+ times. Sammy Watkins (WR-65) is in the same boat, practicing all week, yet getting no love in the rankings department. Sure, he hasn't done much since blowing up Week 1. And yes, Matt Moore will be quarterbacking. But Watkins is one of the best off-the-radar streamers out there. Also, while Zach Pascal's Week 7 breakout probably won't be the new norm, he deserves more credit than his WR-60 ranking. And Ted Ginn (WR-51) should be much better in a plus matchup. On the flip side, Chris Godwin (WR-4) is too high facing a fairly tough Tennessee defense.
At TE, if you're desperate, Tyler Higbee (TE-32) is worth a dart throw in a game that should see 4+ Ram scores. On the flip side, Greg Olsen (TE-10) won't be startable in San Francisco.