Tonight's contest pits two teams that should have better records. Two last-second field goals by the Bears and Jaguars are the reason Denver's 2-4 instead of 4-2. Their defense has yielded the NFL's seventh fewest points per game. Their running game is solid, and they more than hold their own at wideout.
Their problem continues to be at quarterback. Since 2015, Bronco QBs have thrown 83 TD passes and 76 interceptions. Joe Flacco has more turnovers than scores. In fairness, his QB rating (87.4) is his best mark since 2014. But in reality, he's a game manager in an offense that has too many useful weapons to settle for a game manager. Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman are very good backs, and Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton are very good receivers. It reminds me a little bit of Peyton Manning's final, painful season of mediocrity.
Fantasy-wise, they're facing an above-average Chiefs pass defense, against which opposing quarterbacks own a combined 85.7 QB rating. Kansas City's biggest defensive weakness is on the ground, where they give up 5.2 YPC and 161.8 yards per game. One problem is their defense is on the field the third most of any NFL team. In fact, in the past three games no team's D has been on the field more than the Chiefs' (an astounding 37 minutes per game).
Denver's key to winning tonight is to utilize Lindsay and Freeman heavily, burning clock and keeping Pat Mahomes off the field. I believe Lindsay and Freeman will both be fantasy startable; they'll likely earn more touches than any other guy on the field. Flacco's averaged 24 attempts per contest the past two pweeks; Denver won both. In their four losses he averaged 37 attempts. Some of that is obvious game-flow stuff. But the point is, Flacco throwing a lot hasn't been a recipe for success.
For the Chiefs, after a frighteningly brilliant 3-0 start that put him on pace for a nutty 6,373 passing yards, 59 touchdowns, and zero interceptions, Mahomes has looked a little too human, at least by his standards: barely 300 yards per game and a modest 4/1 TD/INT ratio while going 1-2 in the win-loss column. And he hasn't completed more than 57% of his passes during this recent stretch.
The good news is that Tyreek Hill is back. The bad news is that Travis Kelce has yet to break out, and Sammy Watkins has gone from invisible to hurt. Tonight is more likely than not to be a sub-par performance for Mahomes and the receiving corps against a tough Denver D. Despite his consensus #3 Week 7 QB ranking, I believe Mahomes won't post top-8 numbers.
In the backfield, LeSean McCoy led the way last week with only eight carries. How can we possibly trust him or Damien Williams tonight? Both are expert-consensus RB3s, which is fitting.
Again, it largely comes down to whether the Broncos can control the clock. The Chiefs are only 25th in offensive plays per game (60.3), and 27th these past three weeks (57.0). Tonight's play count likely will determine which way this game goes.
Their problem continues to be at quarterback. Since 2015, Bronco QBs have thrown 83 TD passes and 76 interceptions. Joe Flacco has more turnovers than scores. In fairness, his QB rating (87.4) is his best mark since 2014. But in reality, he's a game manager in an offense that has too many useful weapons to settle for a game manager. Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman are very good backs, and Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton are very good receivers. It reminds me a little bit of Peyton Manning's final, painful season of mediocrity.
Fantasy-wise, they're facing an above-average Chiefs pass defense, against which opposing quarterbacks own a combined 85.7 QB rating. Kansas City's biggest defensive weakness is on the ground, where they give up 5.2 YPC and 161.8 yards per game. One problem is their defense is on the field the third most of any NFL team. In fact, in the past three games no team's D has been on the field more than the Chiefs' (an astounding 37 minutes per game).
Denver's key to winning tonight is to utilize Lindsay and Freeman heavily, burning clock and keeping Pat Mahomes off the field. I believe Lindsay and Freeman will both be fantasy startable; they'll likely earn more touches than any other guy on the field. Flacco's averaged 24 attempts per contest the past two pweeks; Denver won both. In their four losses he averaged 37 attempts. Some of that is obvious game-flow stuff. But the point is, Flacco throwing a lot hasn't been a recipe for success.
For the Chiefs, after a frighteningly brilliant 3-0 start that put him on pace for a nutty 6,373 passing yards, 59 touchdowns, and zero interceptions, Mahomes has looked a little too human, at least by his standards: barely 300 yards per game and a modest 4/1 TD/INT ratio while going 1-2 in the win-loss column. And he hasn't completed more than 57% of his passes during this recent stretch.
The good news is that Tyreek Hill is back. The bad news is that Travis Kelce has yet to break out, and Sammy Watkins has gone from invisible to hurt. Tonight is more likely than not to be a sub-par performance for Mahomes and the receiving corps against a tough Denver D. Despite his consensus #3 Week 7 QB ranking, I believe Mahomes won't post top-8 numbers.
In the backfield, LeSean McCoy led the way last week with only eight carries. How can we possibly trust him or Damien Williams tonight? Both are expert-consensus RB3s, which is fitting.
Again, it largely comes down to whether the Broncos can control the clock. The Chiefs are only 25th in offensive plays per game (60.3), and 27th these past three weeks (57.0). Tonight's play count likely will determine which way this game goes.