Saturday means bargains, and Saturday means busts. I've made 66 official picks since Week 1, hitting on 39 (59%). As always, these are highly contrarian predictions based on consensus expert rankings compiled by Fantasy Pros. So if 98% of experts rank a QB inside the top 8, and I say they're wrong, that's an FF4W bust pick.
There's no taking advantage of late-week injuries. For example, Latavius Murray's consensus expert RB ranking this week is 36th. With news that Alvin Kamara will miss Sunday's game, Murray should be ranked better (though not much better in my opinion). So I won't capitalize on Murray's outdated projections. Same thing with the Saints' Josh Hill (37th) after Jared Cook was declared out. Yeah, Hill is still a deep, deep flyer. But it wouldn't be fair to call him a bargain and then say I was right.
At QB, it's been a painfully strange year for Andy Dalton. But do you realize he has the 18th most QB fantasy points per game, right behind Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers? And if not for that embarrassing Week 4 dud against Pittsburgh, he'd be fantasy's 11th best QB. And that's playing behind one of the league's worst offensive lines, without his #1 wideout, and without his #3 wideout for two games. So on a personal level, cut Dalton some slack. On a fantasy level, he'll be better than his #20 Week 7 ranking suggests. On the flip side, Jets vs. Patriots is a trap game for the defending Super Bowl champs. New England's dream of an undefeated season could run through Baltimore (Week 9) or Philly (Week 11). But the lowly Jets are now healthy, and their pass defense has yielded only five scores despite playing the Pats, Cowboys, Eagles, Browns, and Bills. Yeah, five TDs is pretty impressive. Steer clear of Tom Brady (#11) as a QB1.
At RB, Duke Johnson is sitting all the way down at 39th. No expert ranks him better than 34th. The opposing Colts have yielded 24 receptions to RBs in five games. Duke's a good bet to achieve RB3 production. And in Buffalo, it's entirely reasonable to expect Frank Gore (#26) to feast on the Dolphins, in what could be the second-to-last 100-yard performance of his career--his final one coming in four weeks against these very same Dolphins. On the flip side, the Giants have been surprisingly capable against the run, yielding only 4.2 YPC, while David Johnson (#5) continues to make his living through the air, where he has more yards and TDs (315/3) than he does on the ground (298/2). With Chase Edmonds continuing to pose a threat, DJ is a risky RB1.
At WR, Allen Lazard (#62) is a nice flyer. I'm comfortable recommending him in this format because all week Davante Adams (unranked), Geronimo Allison (#92), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (#36) have been questionable at best to play. At least in Adams' and Allison's cases, their expert projections have been baked in since Tuesday. Aaron Rodgers shouldn't have too much trouble moving the ball against Oakland, even with a second-tier receiving corps, and Lazard should be a part of the game plan. I'd also take a chance on Darius Slayton (#43) against the Cardinals D that hasn't stopped anyone, and I don't expect returning CB Patrick Peterson to dramatically change that. On the flip side, Keenan Allen has struggled the past three weeks. At 2-4, surely the Chargers will put more focus on their #1 wideout. Except against Tennessee it won't be that simple. I'm expecting around a 7-70 line on 12 targets--not nearly enough to make Keenan worth his consensus 6th-ranked investment.
At TE, with Will Dissly sidelined, Luke Willson (#23) is my favorite nothing-to-lose tight end coin flip. He'll probably compete with Jacob Hollister, though it's unclear how they'll be used. Obviously if you have a TE1, there's little reason to take the risk of starting Willson. On the flip side, Hunter Henry's breakout last weekend was great to see. It's also not a sign of things to come. Several Chargers could step up any week. Henry's #7 ranking is a bit too bullish on the road against the Titans.
There's no taking advantage of late-week injuries. For example, Latavius Murray's consensus expert RB ranking this week is 36th. With news that Alvin Kamara will miss Sunday's game, Murray should be ranked better (though not much better in my opinion). So I won't capitalize on Murray's outdated projections. Same thing with the Saints' Josh Hill (37th) after Jared Cook was declared out. Yeah, Hill is still a deep, deep flyer. But it wouldn't be fair to call him a bargain and then say I was right.
At QB, it's been a painfully strange year for Andy Dalton. But do you realize he has the 18th most QB fantasy points per game, right behind Philip Rivers and Aaron Rodgers? And if not for that embarrassing Week 4 dud against Pittsburgh, he'd be fantasy's 11th best QB. And that's playing behind one of the league's worst offensive lines, without his #1 wideout, and without his #3 wideout for two games. So on a personal level, cut Dalton some slack. On a fantasy level, he'll be better than his #20 Week 7 ranking suggests. On the flip side, Jets vs. Patriots is a trap game for the defending Super Bowl champs. New England's dream of an undefeated season could run through Baltimore (Week 9) or Philly (Week 11). But the lowly Jets are now healthy, and their pass defense has yielded only five scores despite playing the Pats, Cowboys, Eagles, Browns, and Bills. Yeah, five TDs is pretty impressive. Steer clear of Tom Brady (#11) as a QB1.
At RB, Duke Johnson is sitting all the way down at 39th. No expert ranks him better than 34th. The opposing Colts have yielded 24 receptions to RBs in five games. Duke's a good bet to achieve RB3 production. And in Buffalo, it's entirely reasonable to expect Frank Gore (#26) to feast on the Dolphins, in what could be the second-to-last 100-yard performance of his career--his final one coming in four weeks against these very same Dolphins. On the flip side, the Giants have been surprisingly capable against the run, yielding only 4.2 YPC, while David Johnson (#5) continues to make his living through the air, where he has more yards and TDs (315/3) than he does on the ground (298/2). With Chase Edmonds continuing to pose a threat, DJ is a risky RB1.
At WR, Allen Lazard (#62) is a nice flyer. I'm comfortable recommending him in this format because all week Davante Adams (unranked), Geronimo Allison (#92), and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (#36) have been questionable at best to play. At least in Adams' and Allison's cases, their expert projections have been baked in since Tuesday. Aaron Rodgers shouldn't have too much trouble moving the ball against Oakland, even with a second-tier receiving corps, and Lazard should be a part of the game plan. I'd also take a chance on Darius Slayton (#43) against the Cardinals D that hasn't stopped anyone, and I don't expect returning CB Patrick Peterson to dramatically change that. On the flip side, Keenan Allen has struggled the past three weeks. At 2-4, surely the Chargers will put more focus on their #1 wideout. Except against Tennessee it won't be that simple. I'm expecting around a 7-70 line on 12 targets--not nearly enough to make Keenan worth his consensus 6th-ranked investment.
At TE, with Will Dissly sidelined, Luke Willson (#23) is my favorite nothing-to-lose tight end coin flip. He'll probably compete with Jacob Hollister, though it's unclear how they'll be used. Obviously if you have a TE1, there's little reason to take the risk of starting Willson. On the flip side, Hunter Henry's breakout last weekend was great to see. It's also not a sign of things to come. Several Chargers could step up any week. Henry's #7 ranking is a bit too bullish on the road against the Titans.