Last night the NFL's most competitive division almost got more competitive, as the Lions probably should have entered Week 7 as the NFC North's lone one-loss team. Instead they fell to 2-2-1 after a brutal loss to the Packers. Detroit's opponents' combined record is merely 16-13-1, which doesn't sound so tough. But on paper their schedule has been anything but easy: @Cardinals, Chargers, @Eagles, Chiefs, @Packers. 2-2-1 isn't so bad, though 3-1-1 would have looked a whole lot better.
While Matthew Stafford didn't light it up, he played error-free football in a tough environment, and was able to move the ball despite once again missing his running game. One of my top preseason fantasy bargains, Stafford will enter Week 7 with the 10th most QB fantasy points per game. I remain angry at myself for not reaching for him sooner in my draft (good job, Justin Koplin).
As for the backfield, it's hard to believe Kerryon Johnson's topped 50 rushing yards only once this season. That's right: once. Yet he's done enough to linger in the top 20-25 RB range. I'd buy low if I could, but my opponent's deservedly happy with his team. If the manager in your league isn't as savvy pluck Kerryon for low-end RB2 value if possible. His floor won't get much lower, and his ceiling remains considerably higher, at least in the near term. But don't overreach: beginning Week 13 he'll face the Bears, Vikings, Bucs, and Broncos. While Kerryon can help you reach the playoffs, he probably won't help you advance.
And how's one of my favorite preseason WR bargains doing? Kenny Golladay is 12th in WR fantasy points per game with room to grow. Marvin Jones entered last night with more yards, but that wasn't sustainable. Golladay is the clear #1 here. It might not have looked like it when Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson combined for 235 yards in Week 1. But at nine targets a game, Golladay is a weekly fantasy starter, period.
For Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers looked shaky at the outset, and his receivers didn't do him many favors. Without Davante Adams, it's unclear who will step up. Last week Geronimo Allison led all wideouts with a measly 2-28 line. Yesterday Allen Lazard, who entered the contest with one career reception, led the way. That's not a knock on Lazard, who could be in line for more work if Adams remains sidelined. But this is a passing attack in search of an identity without their #1 receiver. For now, there are worse flyers than Lazard, particularly if Allison's prognosis is less-than-good.
And a word on Jimmy Graham. I liked him more than most people this preseason. His TE-19 ADP assumed a massive regression from 2018, when he was the #12 fantasy TE. After Week 1 (3-30-1 line), more folks jumped on the Graham train. Then he put up back-to-back 0'fers, and nearly everyone hopped off. Then he looked terrific with a 6-61-1 performance, prompting lots of people to hype him the following week (when he returned to mediocrity).
I liked Graham this summer as a slight bargain because last season he scored only twice on 90 targets. Surely he'd be utilized more in the red zone this year. I wasn't expecting more catches or yards; I was expecting a healthy dose of touchdowns. That's who Graham is at this stage of his career--a better version of Kyle Rudolph. So ignore those who over-hype him after a good game, and ignore those who dismiss him after a forgettable game. Graham will end the year with around a 40-450-6 line. He's a terrific streamer when you want TD-dependent upside. But don't confuse him with a weekly fantasy starter.
Finally, there were at least a dozen reasons why I lost this week. One of them was Aaron Jones. One week after a four-TD performance, he sat in the side car while a now-healthy Jamaal Williams steered. It's an agonizing backfield situation. For two years I've maintained Jones is the better back. Statistically that's proven true most weeks. Yet the Packers' preseason interest in utilizing both RBs has played out largely as their coaches planned. More concerning, in his four healthy games, Williams' targets have risen each week.
Now this is the point in the column when I confess that after last week I saw the writing on the wall--that once Williams returned, Jones would be a surprisingly sizable RB2 risk. The time to sell high was after his monster outing. So I packaged him and Mike Williams for Royce Freeman and Mike Evans. As with most of my trades, at the time there was no obvious winner. And given Evans' erratic production and Williams' return to full health, there's still no obvious winner. But knowing Jones couldn't be trusted as a weekly top-20 RB, I cut bait. We'll see how it turns out.
While Matthew Stafford didn't light it up, he played error-free football in a tough environment, and was able to move the ball despite once again missing his running game. One of my top preseason fantasy bargains, Stafford will enter Week 7 with the 10th most QB fantasy points per game. I remain angry at myself for not reaching for him sooner in my draft (good job, Justin Koplin).
As for the backfield, it's hard to believe Kerryon Johnson's topped 50 rushing yards only once this season. That's right: once. Yet he's done enough to linger in the top 20-25 RB range. I'd buy low if I could, but my opponent's deservedly happy with his team. If the manager in your league isn't as savvy pluck Kerryon for low-end RB2 value if possible. His floor won't get much lower, and his ceiling remains considerably higher, at least in the near term. But don't overreach: beginning Week 13 he'll face the Bears, Vikings, Bucs, and Broncos. While Kerryon can help you reach the playoffs, he probably won't help you advance.
And how's one of my favorite preseason WR bargains doing? Kenny Golladay is 12th in WR fantasy points per game with room to grow. Marvin Jones entered last night with more yards, but that wasn't sustainable. Golladay is the clear #1 here. It might not have looked like it when Danny Amendola and T.J. Hockenson combined for 235 yards in Week 1. But at nine targets a game, Golladay is a weekly fantasy starter, period.
For Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers looked shaky at the outset, and his receivers didn't do him many favors. Without Davante Adams, it's unclear who will step up. Last week Geronimo Allison led all wideouts with a measly 2-28 line. Yesterday Allen Lazard, who entered the contest with one career reception, led the way. That's not a knock on Lazard, who could be in line for more work if Adams remains sidelined. But this is a passing attack in search of an identity without their #1 receiver. For now, there are worse flyers than Lazard, particularly if Allison's prognosis is less-than-good.
And a word on Jimmy Graham. I liked him more than most people this preseason. His TE-19 ADP assumed a massive regression from 2018, when he was the #12 fantasy TE. After Week 1 (3-30-1 line), more folks jumped on the Graham train. Then he put up back-to-back 0'fers, and nearly everyone hopped off. Then he looked terrific with a 6-61-1 performance, prompting lots of people to hype him the following week (when he returned to mediocrity).
I liked Graham this summer as a slight bargain because last season he scored only twice on 90 targets. Surely he'd be utilized more in the red zone this year. I wasn't expecting more catches or yards; I was expecting a healthy dose of touchdowns. That's who Graham is at this stage of his career--a better version of Kyle Rudolph. So ignore those who over-hype him after a good game, and ignore those who dismiss him after a forgettable game. Graham will end the year with around a 40-450-6 line. He's a terrific streamer when you want TD-dependent upside. But don't confuse him with a weekly fantasy starter.
Finally, there were at least a dozen reasons why I lost this week. One of them was Aaron Jones. One week after a four-TD performance, he sat in the side car while a now-healthy Jamaal Williams steered. It's an agonizing backfield situation. For two years I've maintained Jones is the better back. Statistically that's proven true most weeks. Yet the Packers' preseason interest in utilizing both RBs has played out largely as their coaches planned. More concerning, in his four healthy games, Williams' targets have risen each week.
Now this is the point in the column when I confess that after last week I saw the writing on the wall--that once Williams returned, Jones would be a surprisingly sizable RB2 risk. The time to sell high was after his monster outing. So I packaged him and Mike Williams for Royce Freeman and Mike Evans. As with most of my trades, at the time there was no obvious winner. And given Evans' erratic production and Williams' return to full health, there's still no obvious winner. But knowing Jones couldn't be trusted as a weekly top-20 RB, I cut bait. We'll see how it turns out.