Is it just me, or have the past 50 days felt like 30? Can't believe we're now into Week 6, nearly halfway through most leagues' regular seasons.
As always on Saturdays, it's time to walk through this week's biggest bargains and busts. And as always, I make things a bit harder for myself, because who doesn't like a challenge? First, my picks are well outside conventional wisdom (expert predictions), and second, these picks don't capitalize on late-breaking injuries (or late-breaking healthiness). After all, if I encouraged folks to start Malcolm Brown at his consensus RB-38 ranking--because most experts ranked Brown early in the week, when Todd Gurley was expected to suit up--it would be cheap and vain.
Last Saturday I hit five of 11 contrarian picks, bringing my season total to 34-for-55, or 62%. What's in store for this week?
Do not take player performances personally. That includes Baker Mayfield, whose Cleveland Browns were in first place in the AFC North seven days ago. Now they're one loss away from falling to 2-4, which easily could become 2-5 next week in New England. As everyone knows, I've been down on Mayfield for months. But his QB-17 expert ranking this week assumes sustained regression at home against Seattle's middling pass defense. Only eight of 136 experts rank him inside the top 14. He'll rebound. And Sam Darnold has recovered from mono and is buried at #25 this week. With the expectation that Le'Veon Bell will catch 6+ balls, and Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder will finally have something to do, Darnold is a good bet for a surprisingly competent 225-2-0 line.
On the flip side, I'm banking on Cleveland's D regrouping and keeping Russell Wilson somewhat in check. All 136 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros are predicting this week's consensus QB-5 will finish in the top 8. I'm saying he won't.
At RB I'm eyeing an ascending Ronald Jones (RB-32) against a Carolina D yielding an unimpressive 4.9 YPC. On the flip side, Christian McCaffrey has been playing out of his mind. The popular assumption is that Week 6's universal #1 RB will keep it going. But he won't--not against a Bucs D that held him to 53 scoreless yards on 18 touches in Week 2. And even with Rashaad Penny questionable, Chris Carson (RB-10) is more likely to net single-digit fantasy points than 18+.
At WR, while Jacksonville's run defense is statistically among the weakest in the NFL, their passing D isn't much better, particularly with Jalen Ramsey expected to miss his third straight game. Ted Ginn (WR-69) is a fantastic desperation flyer. Devante Parker (WR-51) is once again ridiculously undervalued based on both talent and matchup. On the flip side, I'm not trusting Tyler Boyd at his overly optimistic WR-11 rankings.
And at TE, I'm stubbornly still on the O.J. Howard train. Ignore his TE-15 ranking. If you don't have a TE1, he's the best shot you've got for major upside. On the flip side, Greg Olsen's huge performance against the Bucs Week 2 probably is contributing to his TE-6 ranking. Don't buy into it; he's the riskiest TE1 this week.
As always on Saturdays, it's time to walk through this week's biggest bargains and busts. And as always, I make things a bit harder for myself, because who doesn't like a challenge? First, my picks are well outside conventional wisdom (expert predictions), and second, these picks don't capitalize on late-breaking injuries (or late-breaking healthiness). After all, if I encouraged folks to start Malcolm Brown at his consensus RB-38 ranking--because most experts ranked Brown early in the week, when Todd Gurley was expected to suit up--it would be cheap and vain.
Last Saturday I hit five of 11 contrarian picks, bringing my season total to 34-for-55, or 62%. What's in store for this week?
Do not take player performances personally. That includes Baker Mayfield, whose Cleveland Browns were in first place in the AFC North seven days ago. Now they're one loss away from falling to 2-4, which easily could become 2-5 next week in New England. As everyone knows, I've been down on Mayfield for months. But his QB-17 expert ranking this week assumes sustained regression at home against Seattle's middling pass defense. Only eight of 136 experts rank him inside the top 14. He'll rebound. And Sam Darnold has recovered from mono and is buried at #25 this week. With the expectation that Le'Veon Bell will catch 6+ balls, and Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder will finally have something to do, Darnold is a good bet for a surprisingly competent 225-2-0 line.
On the flip side, I'm banking on Cleveland's D regrouping and keeping Russell Wilson somewhat in check. All 136 experts compiled by Fantasy Pros are predicting this week's consensus QB-5 will finish in the top 8. I'm saying he won't.
At RB I'm eyeing an ascending Ronald Jones (RB-32) against a Carolina D yielding an unimpressive 4.9 YPC. On the flip side, Christian McCaffrey has been playing out of his mind. The popular assumption is that Week 6's universal #1 RB will keep it going. But he won't--not against a Bucs D that held him to 53 scoreless yards on 18 touches in Week 2. And even with Rashaad Penny questionable, Chris Carson (RB-10) is more likely to net single-digit fantasy points than 18+.
At WR, while Jacksonville's run defense is statistically among the weakest in the NFL, their passing D isn't much better, particularly with Jalen Ramsey expected to miss his third straight game. Ted Ginn (WR-69) is a fantastic desperation flyer. Devante Parker (WR-51) is once again ridiculously undervalued based on both talent and matchup. On the flip side, I'm not trusting Tyler Boyd at his overly optimistic WR-11 rankings.
And at TE, I'm stubbornly still on the O.J. Howard train. Ignore his TE-15 ranking. If you don't have a TE1, he's the best shot you've got for major upside. On the flip side, Greg Olsen's huge performance against the Bucs Week 2 probably is contributing to his TE-6 ranking. Don't buy into it; he's the riskiest TE1 this week.