Baker Mayfield is the 34th best fantasy QB based on fantasy points per game. As someone who went out on a big limb this summer by railing against his QB-5 ADP and consensus near-elite ranking, even I'm shocked at how out-of-sync Cleveland's passing game is. Blame it on Mayfield. Blame it on the offensive line. Blame it on David Njoku's injury (not really). Blame it on OBJ. Whatever the reasons, there's enough blame to go around. But man, what a disastrous situation.
While the Niners' D deserves a lot of credit, we all know each team contributed to the Browns' dismal showing. Looking ahead, after next week's presumably easier game against Seattle, Cleveland's schedule will look like this: Bye, @Patriots, @Broncos, Bills. So Mayfield's struggles surely will continue. As I've been saying for weeks, circle weeks 12 (Dolphins) and 14 (Bengals); those are the two contests where he'll probably (one would hope?) be a QB1.
On the other side of the ball, Jimmy G. didn't do much better. But he didn't need to, as San Francisco's world-class ground game took care of business. The Niners' toughest test so far will take place next week on the road against the Rams. After that, things will get a heckuva lot easier. If Jimmy were a little better than the 20th best fantasy QB (based on fantasy points per game), I'd recommend adding him in all leagues. But this is one big preseason call I've missed as of now.
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As most of you know, I try to be very transparent on this page. Accuracy is celebrated. Wrongness is accepted.
So as we near the one-third mark on this fantasy season, here's a rundown on my 19 preseason contrarian predictions. The biggest flack I get each summer is with these predictions, which challenge conventional wisdom and therefore, in the near term, make me look like an idiot. Let's briefly walk through the good and the bad (so far). If you're following along at home, here's a link to the 19 picks: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html
Starting at QB, none of my three bargains are panning out. Jared Goff is languishing in QB2 World, Jimmy G. wouldn't be cutting it even if he hadn't had his bye yet, and Matthew Stafford is just barely outside my anticipated top-16 grouping. And only one of my three busts is holding up: the previously mentioned Mayfield. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray are lighting it up.
At RB, only one of my three bargains is hitting: Royce Freeman. The other two, Devonta Freeman and Ty Montgomery, simply aren't meeting anyone's expectations, and surely aren't meeting mine. On the flip side, of my four busts, only one (Mark Ingram) is proving me wrong. The other three--James Conner, Joe Mixon, and Damien Williams--are underperforming. All three were consensus preseason top-13 RBs.
I'm 1-for-4 at WR, with Davante Adams failing to meet his nearly universal preseason WR-2 ranking. I made the case for why he wouldn't be a top-10 receiver. Even those who'd argue he'd be much better if he hadn't gotten hurt, the reality is that he's 23rd in fantasy points per game. And so far I'm narrowly wrong on bargains Kenny Golladay and DeVante Parker, while Trey Quinn has virtually no shot of achieving the WR5 production I'd hoped for.
Finally, I made two TE calls: George Kittle (TE-3) would suffer a 25%+ production drop, and Jason Witten (TE-25) would finish inside the top 16. Last year Kittle averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game. This year it's 13.6, or a 16% drop thus far. And the TD-friendly Witten is holding his own at #11.
Again, these were predictions where nearly ever expert went one way, and I went another. I'm currently 7-12 and hopeful I can jump above .500 by year's end.
While the Niners' D deserves a lot of credit, we all know each team contributed to the Browns' dismal showing. Looking ahead, after next week's presumably easier game against Seattle, Cleveland's schedule will look like this: Bye, @Patriots, @Broncos, Bills. So Mayfield's struggles surely will continue. As I've been saying for weeks, circle weeks 12 (Dolphins) and 14 (Bengals); those are the two contests where he'll probably (one would hope?) be a QB1.
On the other side of the ball, Jimmy G. didn't do much better. But he didn't need to, as San Francisco's world-class ground game took care of business. The Niners' toughest test so far will take place next week on the road against the Rams. After that, things will get a heckuva lot easier. If Jimmy were a little better than the 20th best fantasy QB (based on fantasy points per game), I'd recommend adding him in all leagues. But this is one big preseason call I've missed as of now.
---
As most of you know, I try to be very transparent on this page. Accuracy is celebrated. Wrongness is accepted.
So as we near the one-third mark on this fantasy season, here's a rundown on my 19 preseason contrarian predictions. The biggest flack I get each summer is with these predictions, which challenge conventional wisdom and therefore, in the near term, make me look like an idiot. Let's briefly walk through the good and the bad (so far). If you're following along at home, here's a link to the 19 picks: www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html
Starting at QB, none of my three bargains are panning out. Jared Goff is languishing in QB2 World, Jimmy G. wouldn't be cutting it even if he hadn't had his bye yet, and Matthew Stafford is just barely outside my anticipated top-16 grouping. And only one of my three busts is holding up: the previously mentioned Mayfield. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray are lighting it up.
At RB, only one of my three bargains is hitting: Royce Freeman. The other two, Devonta Freeman and Ty Montgomery, simply aren't meeting anyone's expectations, and surely aren't meeting mine. On the flip side, of my four busts, only one (Mark Ingram) is proving me wrong. The other three--James Conner, Joe Mixon, and Damien Williams--are underperforming. All three were consensus preseason top-13 RBs.
I'm 1-for-4 at WR, with Davante Adams failing to meet his nearly universal preseason WR-2 ranking. I made the case for why he wouldn't be a top-10 receiver. Even those who'd argue he'd be much better if he hadn't gotten hurt, the reality is that he's 23rd in fantasy points per game. And so far I'm narrowly wrong on bargains Kenny Golladay and DeVante Parker, while Trey Quinn has virtually no shot of achieving the WR5 production I'd hoped for.
Finally, I made two TE calls: George Kittle (TE-3) would suffer a 25%+ production drop, and Jason Witten (TE-25) would finish inside the top 16. Last year Kittle averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game. This year it's 13.6, or a 16% drop thus far. And the TD-friendly Witten is holding his own at #11.
Again, these were predictions where nearly ever expert went one way, and I went another. I'm currently 7-12 and hopeful I can jump above .500 by year's end.