Every week matters. Today's games might matter a little more than usual. If you're under .500, sinking to 1-4 or 0-5 could be tough holes to dig out of. That said, don't quit regardless; at least once I've been in a league where a 1-4 team won the title. It either means your great players are underperforming, and to remain patient. Or it might mean you take stock of who's overperforming and sell high, with an eye toward acquiring more unrealized value elsewhere.
Like trading Saquon Barkley for, say, Alvin Kamara and a fringe starter with significant upside like Tyler Boyd. Maybe the person who has Kamara sees Barkley--who might return next week--as an upgrade. They'd likely be right. But if I'm 1-4 or 0-5, of course I give up my best player for a chance at a better overall team, as long as I think Kamara and Boyd will play better than they have.
So if you're struggling, keep tabs on which players struggle today, and initiate conversations with managers so you can trade your top asset for two great underperforming players. You have little to lose and a title to gain.
Now, the DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. As always, it's based on FanDuel pricing. If you use some other DFS site and are over-budget, you probably need to swap out only one player to make it work.
QB Deshawn Watson ($8,000) -- Brilliant in two games and atrocious in two others, this is the Watson I expected this summer when the near-universal #1 fantasy QB dropped several spots no my draft board. His QB rating is lower than any other top-10 fantasy QB. At #11 is the next worse QB (based on rating): his Week 5 opponent, Matt Ryan. The comparably priced Ryan is getting a lot of love today. I believe Watson will comfortably outproduce him, assembling a top-5 performance worthy of his steep price.
RB Joe Mixon ($7,100) -- I started to write Christian McCaffrey, who after a lot of thought this week I installed in my lineup last night. But then I thought about his $9,100 price tag, and how much more value I could get by downgrading. Might be a huge mistake given CMC's incredible usage rate, but 20 fantasy points seems more realistic this week than 30. So I'm going with another potential 20-point RB: Mixon. This was the game I circled when he plummeted on my draft board this summer. If he was going to break out, he'd do it against Arizona.
RB David Johnson ($6,800) -- On the other side of the ball, Johnson has similar big-game potential. Neither Arizona nor Cincy nor Arizona offer much resistance to opposing backs. They're bottom-6 in the league in rushing yards yielded per game. As long as Johnson continues to be used in the passing game, he'll exceed DFS expectations today.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,700) -- Got burned with Hopkins last week. Doubling down today. He's been a WR3/4 in each of his past three contests. It's hard to conceive of another letdown. I simply don't view Desmond Trufant containing him all day.
WR Tyler Boyd ($6,700) -- While it's a relatively steep price to pay for the 27th best fantasy wideout, I believe in Boyd's breakout potential. At the very least, John Ross's departure makes Boyd the clear #1. $6,700 for a clear #1 in a great matchup is a good deal.
WR Golden Tate ($4,500) -- These two things are true: I believe Detroit trading Tate last year reinforced what many of us had been seeing--that his best years were behind him. He's simply not the top-20-caliber receiver he once was. That said, at $4,500, he's worth a nothing-to-lose flyer as Daniel Jones' presumptive #3 target.
TE Tyler Eifert ($4,600) -- I started writing "Who's up for some Sprinkle?", referring to Washington's Jeremy Sprinkle. He's been my started since yesterday. Then I read those words and thought, "Not me." I'm completely serious; that's what happened. And now I've removed him and inserted Eifert. Why even consider Sprinkle? Colt McCoy isn't talented enough to reach his wideouts against New England. Sprinkle's a good bet for five targets, which ain't bad. But for $100 more I'm taking Eifert despite his painfully quiet start to the season. The reality is, his TD potential is better, and that's all we need to know when it comes to ultra-cheap tight ends.
FLEX Dalvin Cook ($8,200) -- Minnesota is on the verge of being a mess, if they haven't achieved that level already. Cook has been their lone bright spot on offense. Assuming they play better against the Giants than they did against the Bears (a good bet), Cook will be a key reason why. And even if they don't, Cook's floor is too high to pass up.
DST Patriots ($5,500) -- If five years ago you'd told me the defending Super Bowl-champion Patriots would face an offense led by third-string QB Colt McCoy and a 34-year-old Adrian Peterson who was a healthy scratch Week 1 . . .
Good luck today.
Like trading Saquon Barkley for, say, Alvin Kamara and a fringe starter with significant upside like Tyler Boyd. Maybe the person who has Kamara sees Barkley--who might return next week--as an upgrade. They'd likely be right. But if I'm 1-4 or 0-5, of course I give up my best player for a chance at a better overall team, as long as I think Kamara and Boyd will play better than they have.
So if you're struggling, keep tabs on which players struggle today, and initiate conversations with managers so you can trade your top asset for two great underperforming players. You have little to lose and a title to gain.
Now, the DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week. As always, it's based on FanDuel pricing. If you use some other DFS site and are over-budget, you probably need to swap out only one player to make it work.
QB Deshawn Watson ($8,000) -- Brilliant in two games and atrocious in two others, this is the Watson I expected this summer when the near-universal #1 fantasy QB dropped several spots no my draft board. His QB rating is lower than any other top-10 fantasy QB. At #11 is the next worse QB (based on rating): his Week 5 opponent, Matt Ryan. The comparably priced Ryan is getting a lot of love today. I believe Watson will comfortably outproduce him, assembling a top-5 performance worthy of his steep price.
RB Joe Mixon ($7,100) -- I started to write Christian McCaffrey, who after a lot of thought this week I installed in my lineup last night. But then I thought about his $9,100 price tag, and how much more value I could get by downgrading. Might be a huge mistake given CMC's incredible usage rate, but 20 fantasy points seems more realistic this week than 30. So I'm going with another potential 20-point RB: Mixon. This was the game I circled when he plummeted on my draft board this summer. If he was going to break out, he'd do it against Arizona.
RB David Johnson ($6,800) -- On the other side of the ball, Johnson has similar big-game potential. Neither Arizona nor Cincy nor Arizona offer much resistance to opposing backs. They're bottom-6 in the league in rushing yards yielded per game. As long as Johnson continues to be used in the passing game, he'll exceed DFS expectations today.
WR DeAndre Hopkins ($8,700) -- Got burned with Hopkins last week. Doubling down today. He's been a WR3/4 in each of his past three contests. It's hard to conceive of another letdown. I simply don't view Desmond Trufant containing him all day.
WR Tyler Boyd ($6,700) -- While it's a relatively steep price to pay for the 27th best fantasy wideout, I believe in Boyd's breakout potential. At the very least, John Ross's departure makes Boyd the clear #1. $6,700 for a clear #1 in a great matchup is a good deal.
WR Golden Tate ($4,500) -- These two things are true: I believe Detroit trading Tate last year reinforced what many of us had been seeing--that his best years were behind him. He's simply not the top-20-caliber receiver he once was. That said, at $4,500, he's worth a nothing-to-lose flyer as Daniel Jones' presumptive #3 target.
TE Tyler Eifert ($4,600) -- I started writing "Who's up for some Sprinkle?", referring to Washington's Jeremy Sprinkle. He's been my started since yesterday. Then I read those words and thought, "Not me." I'm completely serious; that's what happened. And now I've removed him and inserted Eifert. Why even consider Sprinkle? Colt McCoy isn't talented enough to reach his wideouts against New England. Sprinkle's a good bet for five targets, which ain't bad. But for $100 more I'm taking Eifert despite his painfully quiet start to the season. The reality is, his TD potential is better, and that's all we need to know when it comes to ultra-cheap tight ends.
FLEX Dalvin Cook ($8,200) -- Minnesota is on the verge of being a mess, if they haven't achieved that level already. Cook has been their lone bright spot on offense. Assuming they play better against the Giants than they did against the Bears (a good bet), Cook will be a key reason why. And even if they don't, Cook's floor is too high to pass up.
DST Patriots ($5,500) -- If five years ago you'd told me the defending Super Bowl-champion Patriots would face an offense led by third-string QB Colt McCoy and a 34-year-old Adrian Peterson who was a healthy scratch Week 1 . . .
Good luck today.