Every Sunday morning we know unexpected things are about to happen. What was more insane yesterday: Marvin Jones' four touchdowns, or Matt Ryan's 2.6 fantasy points? What was more predictable: Zach Pascal's top-2 fantasy WR performance, or Chase Edmonds leading all fantasy RBs?
This is what separates fantasy football from other sports. In most leagues you get only 16 chances--and usually 13 in the regular season. When the unexpected happens--like David Johnson or Adam Thielen getting knocked out early (though Thielen at least salvaged a score)--it can alter outcomes not only that week, but also for your entire season. If a 3-4 record is at least tolerable, 2-5 can feel crushing. Some of you Sunday fell dangerously close to outside postseason contention because one or two players shocked the fantasy world.
All we can do is gather ourselves and look ahead to next week. There are no absolutes, only probabilities. So how can we give ourselves the greatest probability for winning Week 8? What happened yesterday that's replicable, and what were outliers?
With that in mind, let's try to make sense of Sunday's contests, highlighting the most compelling fantasy storyline for each team.
Rams -- Gerald Everett led all teammates with 10 targets, giving him an impressive 34 in his last four games--a higher per-game target rate than Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews, and others. While it's unclear whether he can sustain that attention, he's clearly in the weekly streamer conversation.
Falcons -- A disastrous season got much worse with Devonta Freeman booted for fighting and Matt Ryan literally booted (leaving the game in a walking boot). If Matt Schaub starts Week 8, I'd knock about 50% off of every receiver's projections.
Jaguars -- Dede Westbrook had his best game of the season, while Leonard Fournette tacked on 31 more touches (and is on pace for nearly 400).
Bengals -- I was wrong about Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd yesterday. Boyd will rebound. Mixon will not.
Dolphins -- Two weeks ago on this blog and on Twitter, I eased onto a mostly empty Mark Walton bandwagon. The writing was on the wall in Miami. There was no reason to keep trotting out Kenyan Drake, and Kalen Ballage was a bust. Walton's touches have increased each week since the opener. Barring something unforeseen, he'll be the #1 the rest of the way--and that Week 16 home matchup against Cincy still looks really good.
Bills -- It shouldn't have been that close, but who am I to judge. Buffalo's offense clicked, and John Brown continues his surprising run at WR2 production.
Vikings -- I don't remember the last time Minnesota had a third capable wideout. Rookie Olabisi Johnson could be that guy. If Adam Thielen can't recover from his hamstring injury by Thursday, Johnson will be a solid WR3/4 streamer.
Lions -- Fantasy-wise, the Vikes' defense hasn't been able to contain any opposing #1 receiver--until yesterday, when Kenny Golladay was stymied on only two targets. Instead, the previously mentioned Marvin Jones went nuts. Heading into Week 8, the bigger story is Kerryon Johnson's knee injury; if he misses time, rookie Ty Johnson and electric-but-sparely-used veteran J.D. McKissic will be the ultimate dart throws.
Raiders -- Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller dominated. Jacobs is kicking butt despite facing Denver, Minnesota, and Chicago. The overachieving Raiders probably will lose next week in Houston, though they'll then have three winnable home games against the Lions, Chargers, and Bengals. Jacobs is on the verge of being an RB1 on the season.
Packers -- Stupid me. Would have crushed my DFS 50/50 if I'd picked Aaron Rodgers (strongly considered it, as shared yesterday) over Matt Ryan. It was only a matter of time before vintage Rodgers came through. An historically great day for an historically great player. He was my preseason #1 fantasy QB, which had looked awful. Now he'll enter Week 8 as the #6 fantasy QB and should leapfrog Matt Ryan and Pat Mahomes into the top-4.
Texans -- My Premier League opponent knows how much I wanted to pry DeAndre Hopkins from him. He wisely held on. Remember that greatness can be contained for only so long. And on the injury front, Will Fuller left with a hamstring injury; Kenny Stills filled in admirably and is obviously a must-roster WR given Fuller's and Keke Coutee's injury histories.
Colts -- As crazy as this sounds, Jacoby Brissett could earn MVP votes by season's end. When was the last time a backup had to replace a Hall-of-Fame-caliber quarterback still in his prime, and do what Brissett's doing? Matt Cassel posted a 3,693-21-11 line in essentially a full season of relief of Tom Brady in 2008. Brissett's on pace for 3,701-37-8. While he still has a long way to go, he's become a reliable top 10-14 QB.
Cardinals -- I've hyped Chase Edmonds in 10 columns this season and numerous times on Twitter, often as a must-roster RB handcuff. I've also reminded folks every week of David Johnson's poor YPC dating back to midway through his 2016 season. It all adds up to an incredible situation in Arizona: If Johnson returns next week, it was assuredly be in a time-share, and it's anyone's guess who will be the 1A going forward.
Giants -- Saquon Barkley returned and didn't get re-injured.
49ers -- Once again, apologies for overstating Jimmy G.'s potential this preseason. He hit rock bottom in a horrendous outing. And Matt Breida suffered a concussion and eye injury, so that's something to monitor this week.
Redskins -- I don't understand why Case Keenum is still starting. The end could come one of these next two weeks in Minnesota or in Buffalo.
Chargers -- The difference between 2018 Le'Veon Bell and 2019 Melvin Gordon is that Bell owned his decision from start to finish. Gordon hedged, returned, and has been exposed. Perhaps he's not quite in game shape. Or maybe he's mentally already gone. But the Chargers are 0-3 since his return, losing by a touchdown or less in each game. He literally cost them the win yesterday and has yet to exceed 2.6 YPC on the ground. I would not be surprised if he's benched when Justin Jackson gets healthy.
Titans -- Ryan Tannehill has always been better than his reputation. The problem is that Miami drafted him as a franchise quarterback. He's not. Tannehill is a capable NFL starter. And on Sunday we saw him move this offense capably. While it's not yet safe to start Corey Davis and A.J. Brown, Tannehill breathes a little more life into the passing game.
Saints -- Probably my biggest miss yesterday was warning against Latavius Murray. Many of you--including some FF4W commenters--rightly believed the opposite. Alvin Kamara's health will be a much-watched storyline all week.
Bears -- The morning after Chicago's opening-night loss to Green Bay, when their offense looked atrocious, I wrote on this blog, "it's fairly easy to see this team finishing 8-8 at best." There was push-back obviously. But the offense remains deficient, particularly the running game. They ran the ball only seven times yesterday. This team is not built to win with Mitch Trubisky throwing 54 passes. I'm now saying Chicago will be lucky to finish 7-9. Fantasy-wise, David Montgomery has nowhere to go but up. I suppose.
Ravens -- How did this squad lose to Cleveland? Two defensive touchdowns were the difference in a surprising road win. Have to point out that when Mark Ingram blew up in September, I urged folks to sell high. His 6.0 YPC was entirely unsustainable. In his past three games he's averaged only 3.2 YPC. TDs are keeping him relevant. And he hasn't been a top-20 RB in three of his past four games.
Seahawks -- Yesterday I told one reader, "Russell Wilson is unbenchable." Apparently there are exceptions.
Eagles -- A brutal defeat. But remember weeks 12-16 look terrific: Seahawks, @Dolphins, Giants, @Redskins, Cowboys. Carson Wentz and most of Philly's main guys will be must-starts when it counts most.
Cowboys -- Amari Cooper returned and looked good. As with Saquon Barkley, it's always notable when a top fantasy asset gets through a post-injury game unscathed.
This is what separates fantasy football from other sports. In most leagues you get only 16 chances--and usually 13 in the regular season. When the unexpected happens--like David Johnson or Adam Thielen getting knocked out early (though Thielen at least salvaged a score)--it can alter outcomes not only that week, but also for your entire season. If a 3-4 record is at least tolerable, 2-5 can feel crushing. Some of you Sunday fell dangerously close to outside postseason contention because one or two players shocked the fantasy world.
All we can do is gather ourselves and look ahead to next week. There are no absolutes, only probabilities. So how can we give ourselves the greatest probability for winning Week 8? What happened yesterday that's replicable, and what were outliers?
With that in mind, let's try to make sense of Sunday's contests, highlighting the most compelling fantasy storyline for each team.
Rams -- Gerald Everett led all teammates with 10 targets, giving him an impressive 34 in his last four games--a higher per-game target rate than Travis Kelce, Austin Hooper, Mark Andrews, and others. While it's unclear whether he can sustain that attention, he's clearly in the weekly streamer conversation.
Falcons -- A disastrous season got much worse with Devonta Freeman booted for fighting and Matt Ryan literally booted (leaving the game in a walking boot). If Matt Schaub starts Week 8, I'd knock about 50% off of every receiver's projections.
Jaguars -- Dede Westbrook had his best game of the season, while Leonard Fournette tacked on 31 more touches (and is on pace for nearly 400).
Bengals -- I was wrong about Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd yesterday. Boyd will rebound. Mixon will not.
Dolphins -- Two weeks ago on this blog and on Twitter, I eased onto a mostly empty Mark Walton bandwagon. The writing was on the wall in Miami. There was no reason to keep trotting out Kenyan Drake, and Kalen Ballage was a bust. Walton's touches have increased each week since the opener. Barring something unforeseen, he'll be the #1 the rest of the way--and that Week 16 home matchup against Cincy still looks really good.
Bills -- It shouldn't have been that close, but who am I to judge. Buffalo's offense clicked, and John Brown continues his surprising run at WR2 production.
Vikings -- I don't remember the last time Minnesota had a third capable wideout. Rookie Olabisi Johnson could be that guy. If Adam Thielen can't recover from his hamstring injury by Thursday, Johnson will be a solid WR3/4 streamer.
Lions -- Fantasy-wise, the Vikes' defense hasn't been able to contain any opposing #1 receiver--until yesterday, when Kenny Golladay was stymied on only two targets. Instead, the previously mentioned Marvin Jones went nuts. Heading into Week 8, the bigger story is Kerryon Johnson's knee injury; if he misses time, rookie Ty Johnson and electric-but-sparely-used veteran J.D. McKissic will be the ultimate dart throws.
Raiders -- Josh Jacobs and Darren Waller dominated. Jacobs is kicking butt despite facing Denver, Minnesota, and Chicago. The overachieving Raiders probably will lose next week in Houston, though they'll then have three winnable home games against the Lions, Chargers, and Bengals. Jacobs is on the verge of being an RB1 on the season.
Packers -- Stupid me. Would have crushed my DFS 50/50 if I'd picked Aaron Rodgers (strongly considered it, as shared yesterday) over Matt Ryan. It was only a matter of time before vintage Rodgers came through. An historically great day for an historically great player. He was my preseason #1 fantasy QB, which had looked awful. Now he'll enter Week 8 as the #6 fantasy QB and should leapfrog Matt Ryan and Pat Mahomes into the top-4.
Texans -- My Premier League opponent knows how much I wanted to pry DeAndre Hopkins from him. He wisely held on. Remember that greatness can be contained for only so long. And on the injury front, Will Fuller left with a hamstring injury; Kenny Stills filled in admirably and is obviously a must-roster WR given Fuller's and Keke Coutee's injury histories.
Colts -- As crazy as this sounds, Jacoby Brissett could earn MVP votes by season's end. When was the last time a backup had to replace a Hall-of-Fame-caliber quarterback still in his prime, and do what Brissett's doing? Matt Cassel posted a 3,693-21-11 line in essentially a full season of relief of Tom Brady in 2008. Brissett's on pace for 3,701-37-8. While he still has a long way to go, he's become a reliable top 10-14 QB.
Cardinals -- I've hyped Chase Edmonds in 10 columns this season and numerous times on Twitter, often as a must-roster RB handcuff. I've also reminded folks every week of David Johnson's poor YPC dating back to midway through his 2016 season. It all adds up to an incredible situation in Arizona: If Johnson returns next week, it was assuredly be in a time-share, and it's anyone's guess who will be the 1A going forward.
Giants -- Saquon Barkley returned and didn't get re-injured.
49ers -- Once again, apologies for overstating Jimmy G.'s potential this preseason. He hit rock bottom in a horrendous outing. And Matt Breida suffered a concussion and eye injury, so that's something to monitor this week.
Redskins -- I don't understand why Case Keenum is still starting. The end could come one of these next two weeks in Minnesota or in Buffalo.
Chargers -- The difference between 2018 Le'Veon Bell and 2019 Melvin Gordon is that Bell owned his decision from start to finish. Gordon hedged, returned, and has been exposed. Perhaps he's not quite in game shape. Or maybe he's mentally already gone. But the Chargers are 0-3 since his return, losing by a touchdown or less in each game. He literally cost them the win yesterday and has yet to exceed 2.6 YPC on the ground. I would not be surprised if he's benched when Justin Jackson gets healthy.
Titans -- Ryan Tannehill has always been better than his reputation. The problem is that Miami drafted him as a franchise quarterback. He's not. Tannehill is a capable NFL starter. And on Sunday we saw him move this offense capably. While it's not yet safe to start Corey Davis and A.J. Brown, Tannehill breathes a little more life into the passing game.
Saints -- Probably my biggest miss yesterday was warning against Latavius Murray. Many of you--including some FF4W commenters--rightly believed the opposite. Alvin Kamara's health will be a much-watched storyline all week.
Bears -- The morning after Chicago's opening-night loss to Green Bay, when their offense looked atrocious, I wrote on this blog, "it's fairly easy to see this team finishing 8-8 at best." There was push-back obviously. But the offense remains deficient, particularly the running game. They ran the ball only seven times yesterday. This team is not built to win with Mitch Trubisky throwing 54 passes. I'm now saying Chicago will be lucky to finish 7-9. Fantasy-wise, David Montgomery has nowhere to go but up. I suppose.
Ravens -- How did this squad lose to Cleveland? Two defensive touchdowns were the difference in a surprising road win. Have to point out that when Mark Ingram blew up in September, I urged folks to sell high. His 6.0 YPC was entirely unsustainable. In his past three games he's averaged only 3.2 YPC. TDs are keeping him relevant. And he hasn't been a top-20 RB in three of his past four games.
Seahawks -- Yesterday I told one reader, "Russell Wilson is unbenchable." Apparently there are exceptions.
Eagles -- A brutal defeat. But remember weeks 12-16 look terrific: Seahawks, @Dolphins, Giants, @Redskins, Cowboys. Carson Wentz and most of Philly's main guys will be must-starts when it counts most.
Cowboys -- Amari Cooper returned and looked good. As with Saquon Barkley, it's always notable when a top fantasy asset gets through a post-injury game unscathed.