Week 6 is almost in the books. Congrats to long-time FF4W people and co-managers Steve Michelson and Ross Fessenden for kicking my butt. They had me on as a guest on their podcast six years ago, and we've been fantasy-close ever since. For those interested in competing against me, the other FF4W commenters, and decent people like Steve and Ross, message me about joining the FF4W Premier League next season.
Regarding predictions, I hit 5-of-11 bargains and busts (Saturday's column), pushing me to 39-for-66 (59%) on the year. Full disclosure: although Ted Ginn comfortably outperformed his WR-59 ranking, he wasn't good enough to be fantasy startable. So when that happens, it's a miss. There's no padding stats here. If it's not helpful, it's wrong.
And my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week hit big-time, thanks in part to betting on Stefon Diggs. My own five 50/50's finished #3 (once), #2 (three times), and #1 (once). So if any of you used it in tournament play, you might have won some decent money.
And by the way, one of you told me yesterday that last week's DFS lineup was a winner. Despite it being one of my highest scorers of the past year, I had thought it was a loser. So if any of you played mine lineup last week and can share how you did, I'd appreciate it. If most people won, I'll switch it to a win. If it's mixed, I'll keep it as a loss.
Now, on to the normal Monday morning rundown, highlighting the most interesting fantasy storyline of each Sunday team:
Panthers -- Last week Kyle Allen became the first undrafted QB in 20 years to win his first four career starts. Yesterday he won again. With reports that Cam Newton isn't guaranteed a starting role when he returns, Allen's continued good play is one of the most surprising on-the-field and fantasy stories of 2019.
Buccaneers -- Few quarterbacks can implode like Jameis Winston. But that's stating the obvious. More interestigly, Dare Ogunbowale ran one in for a score and earned five targets, further muddying a backfield that, from a fantasy perspective, can't afford to get more muddied.
Texans -- Carlos Hyde enjoyed his most touches and most yards of the season. Admittedly, he's doing better than I expected.
Chiefs -- Tyreek Hill made his return count, pushing Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle into the background. When Sammy Watkins returns, those three will be afterthoughts most weeks. Hope everyone enjoyed them while they could.
Seahawks -- Will Dissly's Achilles' injury is one of the biggest injury stories of Week 6. We should know more today or tomorrow.
Browns -- Baker Mayfield's fantasy day was better than his actual day. At 2-4, Cleveland's headed toward a 2-6 mark at the halfway point and will be lucky to finish 7-9. Most interestingly, Ricky Seals-Jones produced his second good game in three weeks.
Redskins -- Adrian Peterson blew my projections out of the water. Keep an eye on Chris Thompson's foot injury. And also be realistic about AP's upcoming crash against the Niners, Vikings, and Bills.
Dolphins -- A few days ago I suggested Mark Walton could help folks win a title if Kenyan Drake's traded. Some of you then picked up Walton. And yesterday he was Miami's top back. For a team where little matters, that matters.
Eagles -- Jordan Howard earned the touches; Miles Sanders earned the fantasy points. This remains one of the hardest backfields to predict.
Vikings -- As mentioned above, this was Stefon Diggs' day. He and Adam Thielen are one of the best receiver tandems of the past couple seasons. Maybe the bubbling discontent of two weeks ago helped right the ship.
Saints -- Latavius Murray picked up Alvin Kamara's slack, providing good value for the second straight week after a September fade.
Jaguars -- New Orleans' Marshon Lattimore held D.J. Chark in check a week after containing Mike Evans. Rest assured, Chark should rebound next week in Cincinnati.
Bengals -- Surprised Cincy kept it this close. After a breezy matchup against Arizona, Mixon's YPC is down to 3.4 with the Jags, Rams and another date with the Ravens on deck.
Ravens -- Mark Andrews took over with Marquise Brown sidelined. Andrews has 7+ targets in all six of his games.
49ers -- George Kittle took over for the second straight week, reasserting himself as a near-elite TE.
Rams -- A disastrous performance for one of my favorite preseason QBs, Jared Goff. As for the backfield, Darrell Henderson out-touched Malcolm Brown after the first quarter. If Todd Gurley missed Week 7, Henderson has the edge.
Falcons -- Arizona brings out the best in opposing running backs. Devonta Freeman looked like vintage Devonta Freeman. The bigger news is that he earned 19 carries vs. three for Ito Smith.
Cardinals -- Yet again, David Johnson was lacking on the ground (2.8 YPC), yet more than made up for it through the air. Still, Chase Edmonds averaged 6.8 YPC and looks ready to be an RB1 if Johnson ever sits.
Titans -- I wrote last Monday that Marcus Mariota was allowed one dud. Yesterday he had #2 and was pulled. Ryan Tannehill is a must-add in two-QB leagues, even if Mariota's named the Week 7 starter.
Broncos -- Joe Flacco is on pace for 16 TDs and 18 turnovers in what really should be his final season as a starting QB. More importantly, Emmanuel Sanders' knee injury doesn't appear serious.
Cowboys -- Amari Cooper's quad injury changed the entire complexion of this team. As shared on this page multiple times, if he misses time, Michael Gallup would be on the WR1 radar.
Jets -- With Sam Darnold back, Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder showed off their best selves. This will remain a situationally competitive team, with puff matchups against Miami (twice) and Cincinnati, as well as brutal matchups against New England and Jacksonville.
Steelers -- With Jaylen Samuels out and a third-string QB in, it was the James Conner show until a quad injury knocked him out. His YPC is barely above 3.0 on the season. But he's enjoying a perfect storm of heavy usage, and will face the laughable Dolphins after next week's bye if healthy. Regardless, rookie Benny Snell (who looked much better on the ground) should be one of this week's biggest waiver adds.
Chargers -- A rock-bottom showing for a team that's now headed to Tennessee and then Chicago. Late last season Philip Rivers had thrown zero touchdowns only twice in his previous 43 starts--an incredible feat. Entering last night he'd thrown zero scores in three of his previous seven starts, and it was nearly four of eight. And while Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler were invisible, Hunter Henry dominated in his first game back. He and Mike Williams were the lone bright spots on a team that's stacked on paper.
Regarding predictions, I hit 5-of-11 bargains and busts (Saturday's column), pushing me to 39-for-66 (59%) on the year. Full disclosure: although Ted Ginn comfortably outperformed his WR-59 ranking, he wasn't good enough to be fantasy startable. So when that happens, it's a miss. There's no padding stats here. If it's not helpful, it's wrong.
And my DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week hit big-time, thanks in part to betting on Stefon Diggs. My own five 50/50's finished #3 (once), #2 (three times), and #1 (once). So if any of you used it in tournament play, you might have won some decent money.
And by the way, one of you told me yesterday that last week's DFS lineup was a winner. Despite it being one of my highest scorers of the past year, I had thought it was a loser. So if any of you played mine lineup last week and can share how you did, I'd appreciate it. If most people won, I'll switch it to a win. If it's mixed, I'll keep it as a loss.
Now, on to the normal Monday morning rundown, highlighting the most interesting fantasy storyline of each Sunday team:
Panthers -- Last week Kyle Allen became the first undrafted QB in 20 years to win his first four career starts. Yesterday he won again. With reports that Cam Newton isn't guaranteed a starting role when he returns, Allen's continued good play is one of the most surprising on-the-field and fantasy stories of 2019.
Buccaneers -- Few quarterbacks can implode like Jameis Winston. But that's stating the obvious. More interestigly, Dare Ogunbowale ran one in for a score and earned five targets, further muddying a backfield that, from a fantasy perspective, can't afford to get more muddied.
Texans -- Carlos Hyde enjoyed his most touches and most yards of the season. Admittedly, he's doing better than I expected.
Chiefs -- Tyreek Hill made his return count, pushing Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle into the background. When Sammy Watkins returns, those three will be afterthoughts most weeks. Hope everyone enjoyed them while they could.
Seahawks -- Will Dissly's Achilles' injury is one of the biggest injury stories of Week 6. We should know more today or tomorrow.
Browns -- Baker Mayfield's fantasy day was better than his actual day. At 2-4, Cleveland's headed toward a 2-6 mark at the halfway point and will be lucky to finish 7-9. Most interestingly, Ricky Seals-Jones produced his second good game in three weeks.
Redskins -- Adrian Peterson blew my projections out of the water. Keep an eye on Chris Thompson's foot injury. And also be realistic about AP's upcoming crash against the Niners, Vikings, and Bills.
Dolphins -- A few days ago I suggested Mark Walton could help folks win a title if Kenyan Drake's traded. Some of you then picked up Walton. And yesterday he was Miami's top back. For a team where little matters, that matters.
Eagles -- Jordan Howard earned the touches; Miles Sanders earned the fantasy points. This remains one of the hardest backfields to predict.
Vikings -- As mentioned above, this was Stefon Diggs' day. He and Adam Thielen are one of the best receiver tandems of the past couple seasons. Maybe the bubbling discontent of two weeks ago helped right the ship.
Saints -- Latavius Murray picked up Alvin Kamara's slack, providing good value for the second straight week after a September fade.
Jaguars -- New Orleans' Marshon Lattimore held D.J. Chark in check a week after containing Mike Evans. Rest assured, Chark should rebound next week in Cincinnati.
Bengals -- Surprised Cincy kept it this close. After a breezy matchup against Arizona, Mixon's YPC is down to 3.4 with the Jags, Rams and another date with the Ravens on deck.
Ravens -- Mark Andrews took over with Marquise Brown sidelined. Andrews has 7+ targets in all six of his games.
49ers -- George Kittle took over for the second straight week, reasserting himself as a near-elite TE.
Rams -- A disastrous performance for one of my favorite preseason QBs, Jared Goff. As for the backfield, Darrell Henderson out-touched Malcolm Brown after the first quarter. If Todd Gurley missed Week 7, Henderson has the edge.
Falcons -- Arizona brings out the best in opposing running backs. Devonta Freeman looked like vintage Devonta Freeman. The bigger news is that he earned 19 carries vs. three for Ito Smith.
Cardinals -- Yet again, David Johnson was lacking on the ground (2.8 YPC), yet more than made up for it through the air. Still, Chase Edmonds averaged 6.8 YPC and looks ready to be an RB1 if Johnson ever sits.
Titans -- I wrote last Monday that Marcus Mariota was allowed one dud. Yesterday he had #2 and was pulled. Ryan Tannehill is a must-add in two-QB leagues, even if Mariota's named the Week 7 starter.
Broncos -- Joe Flacco is on pace for 16 TDs and 18 turnovers in what really should be his final season as a starting QB. More importantly, Emmanuel Sanders' knee injury doesn't appear serious.
Cowboys -- Amari Cooper's quad injury changed the entire complexion of this team. As shared on this page multiple times, if he misses time, Michael Gallup would be on the WR1 radar.
Jets -- With Sam Darnold back, Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder showed off their best selves. This will remain a situationally competitive team, with puff matchups against Miami (twice) and Cincinnati, as well as brutal matchups against New England and Jacksonville.
Steelers -- With Jaylen Samuels out and a third-string QB in, it was the James Conner show until a quad injury knocked him out. His YPC is barely above 3.0 on the season. But he's enjoying a perfect storm of heavy usage, and will face the laughable Dolphins after next week's bye if healthy. Regardless, rookie Benny Snell (who looked much better on the ground) should be one of this week's biggest waiver adds.
Chargers -- A rock-bottom showing for a team that's now headed to Tennessee and then Chicago. Late last season Philip Rivers had thrown zero touchdowns only twice in his previous 43 starts--an incredible feat. Entering last night he'd thrown zero scores in three of his previous seven starts, and it was nearly four of eight. And while Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler were invisible, Hunter Henry dominated in his first game back. He and Mike Williams were the lone bright spots on a team that's stacked on paper.