In the FF4W Premier League, I picked ninth in a 14-team, 16-round draft. It was, in hindsight, a mixed effort: OBJ, Kelce, Amari, Ekeler, Guice, A.J. Green, Wentz, Gio Bernard, Rams DST, Pollard, Ryquell Armstead, Chase Edmonds, Damion Willis, Dontrell Hilliard, Michael Badgley, and Mecole Hardman. Amari, Ekeler, Edmonds, and even Hardman have proven to be great value picks. The verdict's still out on Wentz, the Rams, and Pollard. Unless something changes soon, Gio and Armstead will be viewed as bad picks. And the other seven are modest-to-huge busts. At least so far.
It might surprise some of you that after seven weeks, only three of these 16 players remain on my roster: OBJ, the Rams, and Armstead. Yeah, not exactly the combo I would have guessed, either.
I've made 20 waiver moves so far, and later this morning I'll make 1-2 more. Doug Harrison, last year's champion, has made the next most moves: 14. I've made six trades; the next most are three. That's not to say moves are a sign of savvy managing. Far from it. But I believe the constantly changing fantasy landscape requires a constant reassessment of player values and continued engagement with opponents. I've had e-mail conversations with the 13 other managers throughout the season. "Is Player A for sale?" "Are you interested in a WR upgrade?" "I want to make an offer, but first, who do you value more: Player C or Player D?"
Think of roster management like hundreds of open-air elevators, each with a player inside, moving up and down. When one of my guy's elevators is on the rise, I'm trying to determine how high that elevator can go. For example, Ekeler's preseason universal ADP was 73 overall; that's when he was getting drafted, on average. I grabbed him with the 48th pick. My next pick was the 65, and I wasn't confident he'd still be there. At the time it looked like a major reach. Then I watched his elevator rise beyond anything anyone expected. Before I could sell high, Melvin Gordon announced his return. Ekeler's elevator crashed. His Week 6 output signaled I'd missed my window. Then his Week 7 explosion gave me the opening to once again sell high.
It sounds trite, but timing absolutely is everything in fantasy. If I can sell a WR4 coming off back-to-back (and unsustainable) top-20 performances for a WR2 coming off back-to-back WR4 performances, that's likely a win. That's two elevators passing each other: one going up, the other going down, with a high probability they'll each reverse course soon enough.
To be clear, I get things wrong. Sometimes very wrong. But it's important to remember player values are never static.
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Quick look around the league. Kerryon Johnson is out for most of the rest of the season. Ty Johnson should get the first crack at a 14+ touch role, with veteran J.D. McKissic mixing in. And who knows: Detroit might sign Jay Ajayi or C.J. Anderson or someone else to muddy this backfield. Keep in mind the talented Kerryon was averaging only 3.3 YPC; it's hard to see the reportedly less exceptional Ty breaking out. He's a must-add for managers desperate for a #2 RB.
Adrian Peterson has a high-ankle sprain, while Chris Thompson is battling a toe injury. In the short term, Wendell Smallwood could actually enter the RB3 conversation. We'll know more later today.
Alfred Morris has become the Grim Reaper of fantasy health; his arrival is always a bad sign for the starting RB. He's now joined the Cardinals, putting fantasy managers on notice that David Johnson might (or might not) miss Week 8. Again, we'll probably hear more today.
San Francisco acquired Emmanuel Sanders from Denver. At best it's a wash for Sanders. At worst he'll struggle for consistency in a very run-friendly offense. For the Broncos, Courtland Sutton becomes the clear-cut #1, while DaeSean Hamilton becomes a speculative deeper-league add.
It might surprise some of you that after seven weeks, only three of these 16 players remain on my roster: OBJ, the Rams, and Armstead. Yeah, not exactly the combo I would have guessed, either.
I've made 20 waiver moves so far, and later this morning I'll make 1-2 more. Doug Harrison, last year's champion, has made the next most moves: 14. I've made six trades; the next most are three. That's not to say moves are a sign of savvy managing. Far from it. But I believe the constantly changing fantasy landscape requires a constant reassessment of player values and continued engagement with opponents. I've had e-mail conversations with the 13 other managers throughout the season. "Is Player A for sale?" "Are you interested in a WR upgrade?" "I want to make an offer, but first, who do you value more: Player C or Player D?"
Think of roster management like hundreds of open-air elevators, each with a player inside, moving up and down. When one of my guy's elevators is on the rise, I'm trying to determine how high that elevator can go. For example, Ekeler's preseason universal ADP was 73 overall; that's when he was getting drafted, on average. I grabbed him with the 48th pick. My next pick was the 65, and I wasn't confident he'd still be there. At the time it looked like a major reach. Then I watched his elevator rise beyond anything anyone expected. Before I could sell high, Melvin Gordon announced his return. Ekeler's elevator crashed. His Week 6 output signaled I'd missed my window. Then his Week 7 explosion gave me the opening to once again sell high.
It sounds trite, but timing absolutely is everything in fantasy. If I can sell a WR4 coming off back-to-back (and unsustainable) top-20 performances for a WR2 coming off back-to-back WR4 performances, that's likely a win. That's two elevators passing each other: one going up, the other going down, with a high probability they'll each reverse course soon enough.
To be clear, I get things wrong. Sometimes very wrong. But it's important to remember player values are never static.
---
Quick look around the league. Kerryon Johnson is out for most of the rest of the season. Ty Johnson should get the first crack at a 14+ touch role, with veteran J.D. McKissic mixing in. And who knows: Detroit might sign Jay Ajayi or C.J. Anderson or someone else to muddy this backfield. Keep in mind the talented Kerryon was averaging only 3.3 YPC; it's hard to see the reportedly less exceptional Ty breaking out. He's a must-add for managers desperate for a #2 RB.
Adrian Peterson has a high-ankle sprain, while Chris Thompson is battling a toe injury. In the short term, Wendell Smallwood could actually enter the RB3 conversation. We'll know more later today.
Alfred Morris has become the Grim Reaper of fantasy health; his arrival is always a bad sign for the starting RB. He's now joined the Cardinals, putting fantasy managers on notice that David Johnson might (or might not) miss Week 8. Again, we'll probably hear more today.
San Francisco acquired Emmanuel Sanders from Denver. At best it's a wash for Sanders. At worst he'll struggle for consistency in a very run-friendly offense. For the Broncos, Courtland Sutton becomes the clear-cut #1, while DaeSean Hamilton becomes a speculative deeper-league add.