This year teams are averaging 0.88 rushing touchdowns per game--the second-highest rate in 30 years. This past week eight of the 31 rushing scores came from backup RBs, QBs, or WRs. Meanwhile, teams are averaging 1.54 receiving touchdowns per game, which is slightly above the league average covering the past 10 seasons. And yet teams are averaging 22.4 points per game--slightly below the league average spanning the past 10 seasons.
So what's happening? Shouldn't scoring be up, not down?
For starters, while interception returns for TDs are where they normally are, punt returns for TDs, kickoff returns for TDs, and fumble recoveries for TDs are all down compared to the past 10 years. And although extra point accuracy is the highest it's been since the NFL increased the extra-point distance in 2015, field goal accuracy is the lowest it's been in 16 years. In fact, kickers would have to hit 71 consecutive field goal attempts to surpass the average percentage of the past 10 seasons.
So next I examined 50+ yard attempts. Turns out there have been 44 tries through the first five weeks, which is comfortably below last year's rate (factoring in bye weeks). But here's what's most interesting: This year's kickers are hitting 50% of their 50+ yard attempts. Last year they hit 64%. They year before? 69%.
In leagues (like the FF4W Premier League) that reward longer kicks, this sharp decline in deep-kick accuracy has had an impact. Last season the Cowboys' Brett Maher was the #9 fantasy kicker while booting 6-of-7 from 50+. This season he's 0-for-2. There are a lot of reasons why the Jets' Jason Myers is irrelevant nowadays. But last year's #3 fantasy kicker was also 6-for-7 in 2018, and now is 0-for-1. Ka'imi Fairbairn: 4-for-6 vs. 1-for-3. Robbie Gould: 2-for-2 vs. 0-for-2.
We're not even one-third through the season, so of course this is all subject to change. But for now, realize that while offensive scoring is comfortably above recent historical averages, defensive and special-teams scoring is tangibly down.
---
Sometimes managers hold onto players for too long. If their likelihood of helping you win a title is almost 0%, it's time to cut bait. Here are a few guys I'm crossing off my list for 2019:
Case Keenum is rostered in 5% of ESPN leagues, which is about 5% too much, even in two-QB leagues. Washington is in a race with Miami to finish worst in the league. Jay Gruden's firing suggests the team will eventually see what they have in recent #15 overall pick Dwayne Haskins.
Speaking of Washington, Adrian Peterson is rostered in an astounding 49% of ESPN leagues. That's painful. With new management at the helm, Derrius Guice returning eventually, and--most importantly--AP earning only 11 touches per game and 2.7 YPC--his best days of 2019 are probably behind him. Wayne Gallman (85% rostered) should be dumped in all but the biggest leagues on the assumption Saquon Barkley returns by Week 7, and on the assumption Gallman's breakout against Washington was not close to replicable. And preseason favorite Darwin Thompson (11%) is unquestionably the #4 back in a presently healthy Kansas City backfield. He would need long-term injuries to two of the other three to make half-serious noise. Use that bench spot on someone with more realistic upside.
At WR, while I would not suggest outright dropping Corey Davis, the fact that 48% of ESPN managers are rostering him is a big problem. Unstartable in four of the first five contests, Davis doesn't need to be on your team. On waivers you can find 20-30 WRs with a comparable floor and, yes, a comparable ceiling. In Pittsburgh, Donte Moncrief is inexplicably rostered in 22% of ESPN leagues. He'd need injuries to four starting wideouts, the impossible return of Ben Roethlisberger, and a better pair of hands to have a shot at WR3 respectability.
At TE, Jack Doyle (22%) seems like a dime-a-dozen TE2/3, meaning all those managers are burning a valuable bench spot on the Colts' #5/6 offensive option. Meanwhile, Trey Burton (34%) is hanging on more because of perceived potential than real-world potential. In this offense he needs to be dropped until/unless he gets one or two top-10 performances under his belt. And Rob Gronkowski has reportedly been hired as a T.V. analyst. He won't need to get into shape to do that job, so the 3% of you rostering him can comfortably discard him. Unless you're in a keeper league, in which case that IR spot sure comes in handy.
So what's happening? Shouldn't scoring be up, not down?
For starters, while interception returns for TDs are where they normally are, punt returns for TDs, kickoff returns for TDs, and fumble recoveries for TDs are all down compared to the past 10 years. And although extra point accuracy is the highest it's been since the NFL increased the extra-point distance in 2015, field goal accuracy is the lowest it's been in 16 years. In fact, kickers would have to hit 71 consecutive field goal attempts to surpass the average percentage of the past 10 seasons.
So next I examined 50+ yard attempts. Turns out there have been 44 tries through the first five weeks, which is comfortably below last year's rate (factoring in bye weeks). But here's what's most interesting: This year's kickers are hitting 50% of their 50+ yard attempts. Last year they hit 64%. They year before? 69%.
In leagues (like the FF4W Premier League) that reward longer kicks, this sharp decline in deep-kick accuracy has had an impact. Last season the Cowboys' Brett Maher was the #9 fantasy kicker while booting 6-of-7 from 50+. This season he's 0-for-2. There are a lot of reasons why the Jets' Jason Myers is irrelevant nowadays. But last year's #3 fantasy kicker was also 6-for-7 in 2018, and now is 0-for-1. Ka'imi Fairbairn: 4-for-6 vs. 1-for-3. Robbie Gould: 2-for-2 vs. 0-for-2.
We're not even one-third through the season, so of course this is all subject to change. But for now, realize that while offensive scoring is comfortably above recent historical averages, defensive and special-teams scoring is tangibly down.
---
Sometimes managers hold onto players for too long. If their likelihood of helping you win a title is almost 0%, it's time to cut bait. Here are a few guys I'm crossing off my list for 2019:
Case Keenum is rostered in 5% of ESPN leagues, which is about 5% too much, even in two-QB leagues. Washington is in a race with Miami to finish worst in the league. Jay Gruden's firing suggests the team will eventually see what they have in recent #15 overall pick Dwayne Haskins.
Speaking of Washington, Adrian Peterson is rostered in an astounding 49% of ESPN leagues. That's painful. With new management at the helm, Derrius Guice returning eventually, and--most importantly--AP earning only 11 touches per game and 2.7 YPC--his best days of 2019 are probably behind him. Wayne Gallman (85% rostered) should be dumped in all but the biggest leagues on the assumption Saquon Barkley returns by Week 7, and on the assumption Gallman's breakout against Washington was not close to replicable. And preseason favorite Darwin Thompson (11%) is unquestionably the #4 back in a presently healthy Kansas City backfield. He would need long-term injuries to two of the other three to make half-serious noise. Use that bench spot on someone with more realistic upside.
At WR, while I would not suggest outright dropping Corey Davis, the fact that 48% of ESPN managers are rostering him is a big problem. Unstartable in four of the first five contests, Davis doesn't need to be on your team. On waivers you can find 20-30 WRs with a comparable floor and, yes, a comparable ceiling. In Pittsburgh, Donte Moncrief is inexplicably rostered in 22% of ESPN leagues. He'd need injuries to four starting wideouts, the impossible return of Ben Roethlisberger, and a better pair of hands to have a shot at WR3 respectability.
At TE, Jack Doyle (22%) seems like a dime-a-dozen TE2/3, meaning all those managers are burning a valuable bench spot on the Colts' #5/6 offensive option. Meanwhile, Trey Burton (34%) is hanging on more because of perceived potential than real-world potential. In this offense he needs to be dropped until/unless he gets one or two top-10 performances under his belt. And Rob Gronkowski has reportedly been hired as a T.V. analyst. He won't need to get into shape to do that job, so the 3% of you rostering him can comfortably discard him. Unless you're in a keeper league, in which case that IR spot sure comes in handy.