Saturday is matter-day (trademark pending). Depending on when you're reading this, you have one or two more chances to grab someone on waivers to replace one or more questionable-at-best Week 4 options like WRs T.Y. Hilton, Chris Godwin, or Julian Edelman. Or you're scrambling to replace guys already declared "out," WR Mike Williams or RB Justin Jackson.
As we do every Saturday, here are some surprising bargains and shocking busts for Week 4. Last week I hit 7-of-12, pushing me to 22-for-34 (65%) on the season. These are predictions that vastly differ from those of fantasy experts. The goal here is not simmply to regurgitate conventional wisdom; it's to challenge it.
And as always, I won't take advantage of injuries. For example, Hilton's prognosis worsened Friday. It would be inappropriate to recommend Deon Cain or Parris Campbell. The same goes for the Chargers' Dontrelle Inman, who could be L.A.'s #2 receiver with five (yes, five) customary contributors sidelined or expected to be sidelined: Jackson, Williams, Melvin Gordon, Hunter Henry, and Travis Benjamin (doubtful). Inman is the consensus 84th ranked Week 4 WR. He needs to catch about one ball for 12 yards to outperform his ranking. Experts earlier this week couldn't have known he'd be starting. So Inman's off the table.
Get it? Good. Here we go.
Matthew Stafford (consensus QB-13 ranking) is officially questionable with a hip injury. I'm not concerned. At home against a Chiefs squad that will score plenty, Stafford is a decent bet to finish in the top 10. And I'd definitely take a flyer on Mason Rudolph (QB-22) if there's no top-14 QB available. On the flip side, I'm honestly having a tough time dismissing any top-10 QB. But Dak Prescott (QB-5) is my least favorite. His 10/2 TD/INT ratio is a bit misleading, as he's faced the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins. While the Saints are also lacking on defense, I expect Sean Payton to employ a two-pronged rushing attack to keep the ball out of Dallas's hands. Dak will be solid, but not dominant.
At RB, Nyheim Hines (RB-44) has the pass-catching skills and the matchup to climb into the top 32. On the flip side, everyone still loves James Conner (RB-7). As referenced on Monday, he needs a great opening drive or two to hold off Jalen Samuels and/or Benny Snell, Jr.
At WR, Devante Parker (WR-56) and Preston Williams (WR-48) are nothing-to-lose flyers in a game where they'll be playing catch-up. On the flip side, I had planned to highlight Chris Godwin (WR-14), but he's now questionable. So I'll advise against Odell Beckham Jr. (WR-6) despite the fact I have him and am starting him. Heading into Baltimore in a partially broken offense, he's a huge WR1 risk. At TE, can Jordan Akins (TE-23) do it again? No. But there are worse desperation plays at this position. And on the flip side, the Greg Olsen bandwagon is overcrowded. Back in July I made the case for him as an underrated option whose TE-18 ADP suggested fantasy worthlessness. But his TE-6 ranking is too aggressive; Olsen will fall back to earth, probably with around a 4/40 line.
These were tough this week.
As we do every Saturday, here are some surprising bargains and shocking busts for Week 4. Last week I hit 7-of-12, pushing me to 22-for-34 (65%) on the season. These are predictions that vastly differ from those of fantasy experts. The goal here is not simmply to regurgitate conventional wisdom; it's to challenge it.
And as always, I won't take advantage of injuries. For example, Hilton's prognosis worsened Friday. It would be inappropriate to recommend Deon Cain or Parris Campbell. The same goes for the Chargers' Dontrelle Inman, who could be L.A.'s #2 receiver with five (yes, five) customary contributors sidelined or expected to be sidelined: Jackson, Williams, Melvin Gordon, Hunter Henry, and Travis Benjamin (doubtful). Inman is the consensus 84th ranked Week 4 WR. He needs to catch about one ball for 12 yards to outperform his ranking. Experts earlier this week couldn't have known he'd be starting. So Inman's off the table.
Get it? Good. Here we go.
Matthew Stafford (consensus QB-13 ranking) is officially questionable with a hip injury. I'm not concerned. At home against a Chiefs squad that will score plenty, Stafford is a decent bet to finish in the top 10. And I'd definitely take a flyer on Mason Rudolph (QB-22) if there's no top-14 QB available. On the flip side, I'm honestly having a tough time dismissing any top-10 QB. But Dak Prescott (QB-5) is my least favorite. His 10/2 TD/INT ratio is a bit misleading, as he's faced the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins. While the Saints are also lacking on defense, I expect Sean Payton to employ a two-pronged rushing attack to keep the ball out of Dallas's hands. Dak will be solid, but not dominant.
At RB, Nyheim Hines (RB-44) has the pass-catching skills and the matchup to climb into the top 32. On the flip side, everyone still loves James Conner (RB-7). As referenced on Monday, he needs a great opening drive or two to hold off Jalen Samuels and/or Benny Snell, Jr.
At WR, Devante Parker (WR-56) and Preston Williams (WR-48) are nothing-to-lose flyers in a game where they'll be playing catch-up. On the flip side, I had planned to highlight Chris Godwin (WR-14), but he's now questionable. So I'll advise against Odell Beckham Jr. (WR-6) despite the fact I have him and am starting him. Heading into Baltimore in a partially broken offense, he's a huge WR1 risk. At TE, can Jordan Akins (TE-23) do it again? No. But there are worse desperation plays at this position. And on the flip side, the Greg Olsen bandwagon is overcrowded. Back in July I made the case for him as an underrated option whose TE-18 ADP suggested fantasy worthlessness. But his TE-6 ranking is too aggressive; Olsen will fall back to earth, probably with around a 4/40 line.
These were tough this week.