It's that time of week again: bargains and busts time. When my predictions are clicking, it's my absolute favorite day (besides Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday for obvious reasons, and sometimes Tuesday or Wednesday for less obvious reasons). When my predictions aren't clicking, it's my least favorite day (for more obvious reasons).
Fortunately for me, and for those who've taken some leaps with me, it's been a good start to the season. I've made 22 highly contrarian weekly picks and have hit on 15--good for 68%. Last year I hit something like 49%. Now 49% on highly contrarian predictions isn't bad. It's basically saying if you need a flex option because your best available option is James Washington, and I recommend a receiver who's ranked outside the top 80 WRs (like D.J. Chark Week 1), and about half the time my outlandish pick proves better than anyone expected . . . well, that's better than playing it safe with a middling option like Washington.
So 68% is beyond my realistic expectations. It won't last. There are too many variables. I'm going against the grain. I should be wrong most of the time based on consensus expert thinking. My goal here is to present an alternative to conventional wisdom for those who want to roll the dice on something better than middling--or avoid disaster settling for an overvalued star.
And as you all know, I don't make picks that capitalize on late-week injuries. For example, if Marlon Mack had been declared out, I wouldn't have pushed Jordan Wilkins at his (in hindsight) excessively low RB-63 ranking. The same goes for T.J. Yeldon (RB-67) with Friday's news that Devin Singletary's out; I can't in good conscience name Yeldon. I have to stick with predictions that are fair.
At QB, Jacoby Brissett is perhaps the luckiest fantasy streamer through the first two weeks. He's 18th in fantasy scoring with a 5/1 TD/INT ratio despite averaging only 168 passing yards per contest. But he's also coming home after two straight road games, in what should be a favorable matchup against the Falcons. I like his value at his Week 3 QB-19 ranking. On the flip side, I'm once again warning against the Deshaun Watson (QB-5), this time on the road against the Chargers. L.A. is facing a beatable offensive line. I'm expecting plenty of three-and-outs and finish outside the top 10.
At RB, if you're lacking (as I am) at the #2 RB slot, I strongly suggest rolling with Tony Pollard if you have him. Pollard's RB-49 ranking doesn't tell the whole story. Dallas is facing Miami at home. The game presumably will be decided in the first quarter, if not the second. Zeke Elliott isn't getting 25 touches in this one, and Dak Prescott won't throw 35+ times. I'm banking on usable deep-league flex numbers out of Pollard, with the chance for a big payday if he's carrying the load throughout the second half. I'm also more bullish that most on Rex Burkhead (RB-39). True, there's risk if he's not part of the early-game onslaught, causing anxious managers to hope he does something late. But as we all know, Belichick has whatever-the-opposite-of-a-soft-spot-is for the Jets, meaning he'll run up the score enough to make Burkhead a terrific flyer.
On the flip side, James Conner's stock keeps falling (as expected), yet he's still ranked 14th this week. That's a tough sell. Few starting RBs are on a shorter leash. Jaylen Samuels is ready and able to jump in. Conner needs a flawless opening drive or two to keep his RB2 hopes alive.
At WR, I like Deebo Samuel (WR-48) as Jimmy G's presumed #1 wideout. And the largely neglected Jarvis Landry (WR-37) is worth starting with David Njoku out and the Browns' offense needing to make adjustments. And although he's a huge boom-bust candidate, I'll take a 50/50 shot at Devin Smith (WR-61) in a plus-plus matchup. On the flip side, I'm not buying JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR-11) as a top-16 wideout. Believe he'll need to score to salvage his day. A 7-70 ceiling is realistic. I'm also wary of Sammy Watkins (WR-9) in a tough battle against the Ravens.
And at TE, again I'll take Jason Witten (TE-16), one of the best red-zone TEs of all time in a game Dallas will spend quite often in the red zone. On the flip side, when will George Kittle (TE-3) drop out of the elite group? When experts start realizing what I've been telling you all for months: this isn't 2018. There's a lot more talent in this offense. And yet he's still earning a 25% target share--something I don't think is sustainable with Dante Pettis yet to get going. In other words, this might be the last time this year we see him in the expert-consensus top 3.
Fortunately for me, and for those who've taken some leaps with me, it's been a good start to the season. I've made 22 highly contrarian weekly picks and have hit on 15--good for 68%. Last year I hit something like 49%. Now 49% on highly contrarian predictions isn't bad. It's basically saying if you need a flex option because your best available option is James Washington, and I recommend a receiver who's ranked outside the top 80 WRs (like D.J. Chark Week 1), and about half the time my outlandish pick proves better than anyone expected . . . well, that's better than playing it safe with a middling option like Washington.
So 68% is beyond my realistic expectations. It won't last. There are too many variables. I'm going against the grain. I should be wrong most of the time based on consensus expert thinking. My goal here is to present an alternative to conventional wisdom for those who want to roll the dice on something better than middling--or avoid disaster settling for an overvalued star.
And as you all know, I don't make picks that capitalize on late-week injuries. For example, if Marlon Mack had been declared out, I wouldn't have pushed Jordan Wilkins at his (in hindsight) excessively low RB-63 ranking. The same goes for T.J. Yeldon (RB-67) with Friday's news that Devin Singletary's out; I can't in good conscience name Yeldon. I have to stick with predictions that are fair.
At QB, Jacoby Brissett is perhaps the luckiest fantasy streamer through the first two weeks. He's 18th in fantasy scoring with a 5/1 TD/INT ratio despite averaging only 168 passing yards per contest. But he's also coming home after two straight road games, in what should be a favorable matchup against the Falcons. I like his value at his Week 3 QB-19 ranking. On the flip side, I'm once again warning against the Deshaun Watson (QB-5), this time on the road against the Chargers. L.A. is facing a beatable offensive line. I'm expecting plenty of three-and-outs and finish outside the top 10.
At RB, if you're lacking (as I am) at the #2 RB slot, I strongly suggest rolling with Tony Pollard if you have him. Pollard's RB-49 ranking doesn't tell the whole story. Dallas is facing Miami at home. The game presumably will be decided in the first quarter, if not the second. Zeke Elliott isn't getting 25 touches in this one, and Dak Prescott won't throw 35+ times. I'm banking on usable deep-league flex numbers out of Pollard, with the chance for a big payday if he's carrying the load throughout the second half. I'm also more bullish that most on Rex Burkhead (RB-39). True, there's risk if he's not part of the early-game onslaught, causing anxious managers to hope he does something late. But as we all know, Belichick has whatever-the-opposite-of-a-soft-spot-is for the Jets, meaning he'll run up the score enough to make Burkhead a terrific flyer.
On the flip side, James Conner's stock keeps falling (as expected), yet he's still ranked 14th this week. That's a tough sell. Few starting RBs are on a shorter leash. Jaylen Samuels is ready and able to jump in. Conner needs a flawless opening drive or two to keep his RB2 hopes alive.
At WR, I like Deebo Samuel (WR-48) as Jimmy G's presumed #1 wideout. And the largely neglected Jarvis Landry (WR-37) is worth starting with David Njoku out and the Browns' offense needing to make adjustments. And although he's a huge boom-bust candidate, I'll take a 50/50 shot at Devin Smith (WR-61) in a plus-plus matchup. On the flip side, I'm not buying JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR-11) as a top-16 wideout. Believe he'll need to score to salvage his day. A 7-70 ceiling is realistic. I'm also wary of Sammy Watkins (WR-9) in a tough battle against the Ravens.
And at TE, again I'll take Jason Witten (TE-16), one of the best red-zone TEs of all time in a game Dallas will spend quite often in the red zone. On the flip side, when will George Kittle (TE-3) drop out of the elite group? When experts start realizing what I've been telling you all for months: this isn't 2018. There's a lot more talent in this offense. And yet he's still earning a 25% target share--something I don't think is sustainable with Dante Pettis yet to get going. In other words, this might be the last time this year we see him in the expert-consensus top 3.