Last night was a reminder that what's obvious in the preseason can be confusingly wrong barely a week into the season.
When the dust settles on Week 2, Cam Newton might end up being the league’s worst rushing QB. His numbers: five rushing attempts for -2 yards. He's also lost two fumbles. If you're keeping score at home, that equates to -12.2 fantasy points on the ground. His running game is his calling card; it's what's distinguished him from nearly every other QB of his generation. His nearly 5,000 career rushing yards place him 150th all time.
In other words, on the ground he's been better than nearly every running back to ever play the game.
Yesterday a commenter called out fantasy managers for dropping Cam. Admittedly, I quietly agreed. Surely he was still a top-16 QB, if not top 10--that Game 1's letdown was more "shaking off the rust" than "playing past his prime" or "playing hurt." But a home game against the Bucs should have produced a touchdown. Or two. Or if this were 25-year-old Cam, three or more.
He's 30 years old now. So while the post-prime argument doesn't hold up, he's racked up a lot of wear and tear. He's been sacked 291 times--#55 on the all-time list despite playing a little over eight seasons. At this rate, he'd break Brett Favre's all-time record around age 36 or 37. And that doesn't even include all the times he's been hit on the run beyond the line of scrimmage.
Last year Cam was exceptional 'til his shoulder injury. In the first three months he was sporting a 22/7 TD/INT passing split along with four rushing scores and 400+ rushing yards. He was headed toward a top-5 fantasy season. Since then, he's been unstartable.
So something has to be wrong. It's the most obvious conclusion. It wasn't just an offensive line that opened up too many holes at the wrong time. It wasn't just an improved Bucs' D. We'll probably hear more in the coming days. For now, no one should apologize to themselves for dropping him in 10- or even 12-team leagues. Until he gets his running game back on track, he's a run-of-the-mill QB2.
Other thoughts about Thursday's contest: it was one of the rare times Christian McCaffrey couldn't get much going. But it was baffling around the second quarter when, in the span of 18 offensive plays spanning three or four drives, he touched the ball only once. He wasn't even targeted during that stretch. It was bizarre play-calling. It would be like the Giants sitting Saquon Barkley for nearly an entire quarter. Maybe CMC got nicked up. Regardless, this is not what fantasy managers need out of a universal top-3 overall pick.
On the other side of the ball, Chris Godwin once again outperformed the seemingly invincible Mike Evans. Few receivers carried as much hype this preseason than Godwin. But I know of no one who predicted he'd leapfrog Evans. Last the week the veteran was dealing with an illness, so it made sense. Yesterday suggested it could become a trend--or at the very least, that these two are comparably valued going forward.
And what's up with O.J. Howard? This preseason his ADP was better than Evan Engram's. He now has two total targets on the season and four yards to show for it.
Meanwhile, despite some buzz that Ronald Jones would get more love, Peyton Barber dominated touches. Sell high on Barber--not because Jones is an imminent threat, but because Barber is a pedestrian, TD-dependent back.
Oh, and back to Carolina: How about Greg Olsen? Shocking. That Cam couldn't do much despite his legendary TE's resurgence is all the more damning.
When the dust settles on Week 2, Cam Newton might end up being the league’s worst rushing QB. His numbers: five rushing attempts for -2 yards. He's also lost two fumbles. If you're keeping score at home, that equates to -12.2 fantasy points on the ground. His running game is his calling card; it's what's distinguished him from nearly every other QB of his generation. His nearly 5,000 career rushing yards place him 150th all time.
In other words, on the ground he's been better than nearly every running back to ever play the game.
Yesterday a commenter called out fantasy managers for dropping Cam. Admittedly, I quietly agreed. Surely he was still a top-16 QB, if not top 10--that Game 1's letdown was more "shaking off the rust" than "playing past his prime" or "playing hurt." But a home game against the Bucs should have produced a touchdown. Or two. Or if this were 25-year-old Cam, three or more.
He's 30 years old now. So while the post-prime argument doesn't hold up, he's racked up a lot of wear and tear. He's been sacked 291 times--#55 on the all-time list despite playing a little over eight seasons. At this rate, he'd break Brett Favre's all-time record around age 36 or 37. And that doesn't even include all the times he's been hit on the run beyond the line of scrimmage.
Last year Cam was exceptional 'til his shoulder injury. In the first three months he was sporting a 22/7 TD/INT passing split along with four rushing scores and 400+ rushing yards. He was headed toward a top-5 fantasy season. Since then, he's been unstartable.
So something has to be wrong. It's the most obvious conclusion. It wasn't just an offensive line that opened up too many holes at the wrong time. It wasn't just an improved Bucs' D. We'll probably hear more in the coming days. For now, no one should apologize to themselves for dropping him in 10- or even 12-team leagues. Until he gets his running game back on track, he's a run-of-the-mill QB2.
Other thoughts about Thursday's contest: it was one of the rare times Christian McCaffrey couldn't get much going. But it was baffling around the second quarter when, in the span of 18 offensive plays spanning three or four drives, he touched the ball only once. He wasn't even targeted during that stretch. It was bizarre play-calling. It would be like the Giants sitting Saquon Barkley for nearly an entire quarter. Maybe CMC got nicked up. Regardless, this is not what fantasy managers need out of a universal top-3 overall pick.
On the other side of the ball, Chris Godwin once again outperformed the seemingly invincible Mike Evans. Few receivers carried as much hype this preseason than Godwin. But I know of no one who predicted he'd leapfrog Evans. Last the week the veteran was dealing with an illness, so it made sense. Yesterday suggested it could become a trend--or at the very least, that these two are comparably valued going forward.
And what's up with O.J. Howard? This preseason his ADP was better than Evan Engram's. He now has two total targets on the season and four yards to show for it.
Meanwhile, despite some buzz that Ronald Jones would get more love, Peyton Barber dominated touches. Sell high on Barber--not because Jones is an imminent threat, but because Barber is a pedestrian, TD-dependent back.
Oh, and back to Carolina: How about Greg Olsen? Shocking. That Cam couldn't do much despite his legendary TE's resurgence is all the more damning.