Not quite the NFL season kickoff most were expecting, or wanting. The visiting Packers (preseason DST-19 ADP) outplayed the Bears' universal #1 DST. Or a better way to put it, the Packers' offense did just enough, while the Bears' offense did much less than enough.
While it's only one game, Chicago desperately needed this one. Last year's AFC North champs lost only four contests--three by a field goal or less. Yet they're now facing a steep climb to claim another title. Too soon? Well, they entered this season with the fifth toughest schedule based on 2018 standings. Their remaining tough home games include the Vikings, Saints, Chargers, Cowboys, and Chiefs. Their tough road games include the Broncos, Eagles, Rams, Packers, and Vikings.
So yeah, last night was critical. While we can't project an entire season on it, it's fairly easy to see this team finishing 8-8 at best.
From a fantasy perspective, David Montgomery's usage was concerning. His overall ADP for much of the summer hovered around 50. Then, after his terrific preseason debut on August 8, he began a steady four-week climb to 38. Check out the RBs coming in around 50 or a little worse, and you'll generally find time-share backs. Inside the top 40, it's almost all full-time backs (with the possible exception of Chris Carson, and the insane exception of Damien Williams).
Fantasy managers in recent weeks have been drafting Montgomery as a full-time back--if not Week 1, then soon enough to make him a great investment. What happened last night is concerning for his near-term prospects.
Meanwhile, as I've written before, Jimmy Graham's (preseason TE-19) value will be tied closely to red-zone usage. He entered last year averaging 8.6 touchdowns per season. He ended this most recent campaign with only two. In spite of that, he was the 12th highest scoring fantasy TE. That's why I've viewed him as a low-end TE1 bargain: tack on a few more scores, and that 12th place finish would have been 8th.
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Elsewhere, what the heck's going on with the league's top wideouts? Okay, maybe Antonio Brown was never going to be elite in Oakland. But even by his standards, AB has been out of control. Easily, one of the best players of the past decade, Brown is looking not only at a likely suspension, but also a possible release.
And who would sign him if Oakland makes that dramatic move? Brown will demand another huge payday, likely sit out the rest of the year, and then who knows. Maybe the CFL? He'll have to take a huge pay cut (the highest-salaried CFL player earns around $200,000), but if they let him wear his old helmet, maybe Brown will give it a go.
Seriously though, if you drafted Brown and can get, say, a 5th-round talent for him, I'd cash out and move on. Otherwise you're losing a little more value every day. Because even if this resolves itself tomorrow, AB isn't changing.
While it's only one game, Chicago desperately needed this one. Last year's AFC North champs lost only four contests--three by a field goal or less. Yet they're now facing a steep climb to claim another title. Too soon? Well, they entered this season with the fifth toughest schedule based on 2018 standings. Their remaining tough home games include the Vikings, Saints, Chargers, Cowboys, and Chiefs. Their tough road games include the Broncos, Eagles, Rams, Packers, and Vikings.
So yeah, last night was critical. While we can't project an entire season on it, it's fairly easy to see this team finishing 8-8 at best.
From a fantasy perspective, David Montgomery's usage was concerning. His overall ADP for much of the summer hovered around 50. Then, after his terrific preseason debut on August 8, he began a steady four-week climb to 38. Check out the RBs coming in around 50 or a little worse, and you'll generally find time-share backs. Inside the top 40, it's almost all full-time backs (with the possible exception of Chris Carson, and the insane exception of Damien Williams).
Fantasy managers in recent weeks have been drafting Montgomery as a full-time back--if not Week 1, then soon enough to make him a great investment. What happened last night is concerning for his near-term prospects.
Meanwhile, as I've written before, Jimmy Graham's (preseason TE-19) value will be tied closely to red-zone usage. He entered last year averaging 8.6 touchdowns per season. He ended this most recent campaign with only two. In spite of that, he was the 12th highest scoring fantasy TE. That's why I've viewed him as a low-end TE1 bargain: tack on a few more scores, and that 12th place finish would have been 8th.
---
Elsewhere, what the heck's going on with the league's top wideouts? Okay, maybe Antonio Brown was never going to be elite in Oakland. But even by his standards, AB has been out of control. Easily, one of the best players of the past decade, Brown is looking not only at a likely suspension, but also a possible release.
And who would sign him if Oakland makes that dramatic move? Brown will demand another huge payday, likely sit out the rest of the year, and then who knows. Maybe the CFL? He'll have to take a huge pay cut (the highest-salaried CFL player earns around $200,000), but if they let him wear his old helmet, maybe Brown will give it a go.
Seriously though, if you drafted Brown and can get, say, a 5th-round talent for him, I'd cash out and move on. Otherwise you're losing a little more value every day. Because even if this resolves itself tomorrow, AB isn't changing.