Still sweating from my draft last night--the only one I'm doing this year. Congrats to all 84 folks drafting in this year's FF4W Premier Fantasy Football League. Will be an intense 16 weeks (or for most of managers, 13 weeks).
Not thrilled with my team, but slowing accepting it. Believe it can go either way. 14-team PPR. Starters are Carson Wentz, Austin Ekeler, Derrius Guice, OBJ, Amari Cooper, Travis Kelce, and Damion Willis (Cincy's short-term #2), along with the Rams DST and Mike Badgley. Bench: A.J. Green, Mecole Hardman, Gio Bernard, Tony Pollard, Ryquell Armstead, Chase Edmonds, and Dontrell Hilliard.
Didn't want Kelce, but he fell into my lap at pick #20. Doing the math, a 250-point Kelce will give me roughly a 100-point edge on most TEs, and with less injury risk than a top 12-16 RB. Or at least that's what I'm telling myself. The same thing happened in the next round, when Amari Cooper (WR-13 ADP) was teed at the 37th overall pick. He's far less predictable than Kelce, but was worth the risk given his pre-prime upside. In 14-team leagues it's tough to land three high-impact players. If/when Green returns from his injury, I'll hopefully roll out a top-6 QB, at least one RB2, an elite WR, and two WR2+'s, along with an elite TE. And with five RB handcuffs on my bench, I've got (give or take) about a 25% chance of striking gold these first four weeks.
Or at least that's what I'm telling myself . . .
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In more pressing news, real football returns tonight. Predictions? Hopes and fears? Shout it out below. Here's my take on the Bears vs. the Packers:
Green Bay will give up points. The question is to which guys. Chicago's offense was hard to read last year and is even harder this year. David Montgomery, Mike Davis, and Tarik Cohen realistically could share touches. Of course, Montgomery's the #1 backfield option on the field and in fantasy. I'd start him as a low-floor RB2; rookies' first games are almost always hard to gauge.
Anyone else out there seeing Anthony Miller closing the gap this season with Allen Robinson? I've been hesitant to push Miller too far up my board because of the presence of pesky Taylor Gabriel. If Trey Burton can go, and if Cordarrelle Patterson sees action, there are realistically eight guys vying for looks, even if only 4-5. Robinson offers the most upside, but I'm really curious to see whether Miller takes a leap into WR4+ territory in the coming weeks.
For the Packers, you almost have to start Aaron Rodgers if you don't have a top-10 option on your bench. Yes, he's playing in Chicago. But figure a 300-2-2 game is realistic, meaning back-end QB1 production. As with Chicago, Green Bay has some questions in the receiving game. Geronimo Allison was fantastic last year before going down, and he and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will battle for #2 duties behind Davante Adams. As I've written several times, Adams, is overvalued at his WR-2 ADP. But that doesn't matter much tonight; he'll get his points, even if it's not enough to satisfy hungry managers. And Jimmy Graham is worth a close look if you're in shallower leagues; I still believe he'll be a borderline TE1 with upside if he can earn more red-zone targets.
Finally, unlike a year ago this week when he was suspended and without a clear role, this is now Aaron Jones' backfield. If he holds onto the job--and stays healthy--Jones could/should be a top-10 RB. But he obviously carries some risks, and has a somewhat capable backup in Jamaal Williams. I'd start Jones as a high-usage RB2 who will need to make up ground through the air.
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Not thrilled with my team, but slowing accepting it. Believe it can go either way. 14-team PPR. Starters are Carson Wentz, Austin Ekeler, Derrius Guice, OBJ, Amari Cooper, Travis Kelce, and Damion Willis (Cincy's short-term #2), along with the Rams DST and Mike Badgley. Bench: A.J. Green, Mecole Hardman, Gio Bernard, Tony Pollard, Ryquell Armstead, Chase Edmonds, and Dontrell Hilliard.
Didn't want Kelce, but he fell into my lap at pick #20. Doing the math, a 250-point Kelce will give me roughly a 100-point edge on most TEs, and with less injury risk than a top 12-16 RB. Or at least that's what I'm telling myself. The same thing happened in the next round, when Amari Cooper (WR-13 ADP) was teed at the 37th overall pick. He's far less predictable than Kelce, but was worth the risk given his pre-prime upside. In 14-team leagues it's tough to land three high-impact players. If/when Green returns from his injury, I'll hopefully roll out a top-6 QB, at least one RB2, an elite WR, and two WR2+'s, along with an elite TE. And with five RB handcuffs on my bench, I've got (give or take) about a 25% chance of striking gold these first four weeks.
Or at least that's what I'm telling myself . . .
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In more pressing news, real football returns tonight. Predictions? Hopes and fears? Shout it out below. Here's my take on the Bears vs. the Packers:
Green Bay will give up points. The question is to which guys. Chicago's offense was hard to read last year and is even harder this year. David Montgomery, Mike Davis, and Tarik Cohen realistically could share touches. Of course, Montgomery's the #1 backfield option on the field and in fantasy. I'd start him as a low-floor RB2; rookies' first games are almost always hard to gauge.
Anyone else out there seeing Anthony Miller closing the gap this season with Allen Robinson? I've been hesitant to push Miller too far up my board because of the presence of pesky Taylor Gabriel. If Trey Burton can go, and if Cordarrelle Patterson sees action, there are realistically eight guys vying for looks, even if only 4-5. Robinson offers the most upside, but I'm really curious to see whether Miller takes a leap into WR4+ territory in the coming weeks.
For the Packers, you almost have to start Aaron Rodgers if you don't have a top-10 option on your bench. Yes, he's playing in Chicago. But figure a 300-2-2 game is realistic, meaning back-end QB1 production. As with Chicago, Green Bay has some questions in the receiving game. Geronimo Allison was fantastic last year before going down, and he and Marquez Valdes-Scantling will battle for #2 duties behind Davante Adams. As I've written several times, Adams, is overvalued at his WR-2 ADP. But that doesn't matter much tonight; he'll get his points, even if it's not enough to satisfy hungry managers. And Jimmy Graham is worth a close look if you're in shallower leagues; I still believe he'll be a borderline TE1 with upside if he can earn more red-zone targets.
Finally, unlike a year ago this week when he was suspended and without a clear role, this is now Aaron Jones' backfield. If he holds onto the job--and stays healthy--Jones could/should be a top-10 RB. But he obviously carries some risks, and has a somewhat capable backup in Jamaal Williams. I'd start Jones as a high-usage RB2 who will need to make up ground through the air.
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Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W