If you're new to this page, here's the deal: On Saturdays I recommend some big bargains and surprising busts for the Sunday/Monday games. They're not outrageous predictions for the sake of being outrageous. I pick guys who I think the experts have all wrong. So if you're torn between starting your WR4 or digging through waivers, some weeks I might recommend a largely unrostered guy with a high probability of outplaying your WR4.
So this weekend, beginning with QBs, I've been eyeing Philip Rivers since the NFL released its schedule. In July I tweeted why Rivers is perhaps the most consistent producer in professional sports history: https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/1151473366957789184. Going against a beatable Colts D at home, there's a ton to love, making his consensus QB-18 ranking (based on Fantasy Pros' compilation of 102 industry experts) completely out of whack. On the flip side, not only is Deshaun Watson severely misplaced as this week's consensus #1 fantasy QB, but I don't think he'll finish in the top 8. Laremy Tunsil's arrival hasn't fully solved Houston's o-line issues, while the arrival of the overrated Carlos Hyde hasn't fully addressed Houston's shallow backfield. I'm anticipating an uneven performance from Watson.
At RB, in Wednesday night's Premier League draft I passed on my beloved Devonta Freeman in the second round, allegedly for good reasons (present self has been arguing with past self for quite some time). The vastly undervalued veteran back is ranked 20th this weekend. Yes, he's playing in Minnesota. But we should expect 18+ touches, including several looks through the air, translating into "must-start" top-15 production. And Gio Bernard (#50 RB) will be game-planned into action in what should be a comfortable Seattle win. On the flip side, most of you have known my feelings about James Conner since July. So no need to over-explain why his #8 Week 1 ranking is overly ambitious. One key stat: the opposing Patriots allowed only seven rushing TDs last season--second best in the league.
At WR, two players jump out. Trey Quinn (#92 WR) likely will compete with Paul Richardson for #1 WR duties. Given how bad this passing attack is expected to be, we don't need to get too bullish. But in deeper leagues, Quinn is one of the best nothing-to-lose flyers you'll find. The same goes for D.J. Chark (#82 WR), who I've been targeting the past month as Jacksonville's #1 receiver in 2019. On the flip side, JuJu Smith-Schuster (#5 WR) is expected to achieve near-elite numbers this week and all year. But with Stephen Gilmore likely to shadow JuJu, I'd temper expectations, at least during the opening weekend.
At TE, I'd like to keep pushing Matt LaCosse, but his questionable tag is pushing me elsewhere. So hello Jason Witten; his #25 TE ranking is even stranger than his egregious TE-21 ADP. Don't care how few snaps he plays; he didn't come out of retirement to play decoy. He caught over 70% of his targets for five straight seasons (2013-2017). I don't think you can find another tight end who's accomplished this. One of the greatest receivers in NFL history (his stats speak for themselves), Witten will be a popular waiver add Wednesday morning. On the flip side, continuing with the "Beware Steelers" theme, Vance McDonald is a big risk at his #8 ranking. Pittsburgh's fifth or sixth offensive option, McDonald will be lucky to rack up a 4-45 line.
Finally, an important note: I don't game predictions. For example, with Jordan Reed looking like a no-go, I won't "predict" that Vernon Davis (#38 TE) will outperform expectations. It takes time for news to impact expert rankings. We all know Davis will be undervalued if Reed sits. So there's no point "predicting" it or even talking about it.
So this weekend, beginning with QBs, I've been eyeing Philip Rivers since the NFL released its schedule. In July I tweeted why Rivers is perhaps the most consistent producer in professional sports history: https://twitter.com/bjrudell/status/1151473366957789184. Going against a beatable Colts D at home, there's a ton to love, making his consensus QB-18 ranking (based on Fantasy Pros' compilation of 102 industry experts) completely out of whack. On the flip side, not only is Deshaun Watson severely misplaced as this week's consensus #1 fantasy QB, but I don't think he'll finish in the top 8. Laremy Tunsil's arrival hasn't fully solved Houston's o-line issues, while the arrival of the overrated Carlos Hyde hasn't fully addressed Houston's shallow backfield. I'm anticipating an uneven performance from Watson.
At RB, in Wednesday night's Premier League draft I passed on my beloved Devonta Freeman in the second round, allegedly for good reasons (present self has been arguing with past self for quite some time). The vastly undervalued veteran back is ranked 20th this weekend. Yes, he's playing in Minnesota. But we should expect 18+ touches, including several looks through the air, translating into "must-start" top-15 production. And Gio Bernard (#50 RB) will be game-planned into action in what should be a comfortable Seattle win. On the flip side, most of you have known my feelings about James Conner since July. So no need to over-explain why his #8 Week 1 ranking is overly ambitious. One key stat: the opposing Patriots allowed only seven rushing TDs last season--second best in the league.
At WR, two players jump out. Trey Quinn (#92 WR) likely will compete with Paul Richardson for #1 WR duties. Given how bad this passing attack is expected to be, we don't need to get too bullish. But in deeper leagues, Quinn is one of the best nothing-to-lose flyers you'll find. The same goes for D.J. Chark (#82 WR), who I've been targeting the past month as Jacksonville's #1 receiver in 2019. On the flip side, JuJu Smith-Schuster (#5 WR) is expected to achieve near-elite numbers this week and all year. But with Stephen Gilmore likely to shadow JuJu, I'd temper expectations, at least during the opening weekend.
At TE, I'd like to keep pushing Matt LaCosse, but his questionable tag is pushing me elsewhere. So hello Jason Witten; his #25 TE ranking is even stranger than his egregious TE-21 ADP. Don't care how few snaps he plays; he didn't come out of retirement to play decoy. He caught over 70% of his targets for five straight seasons (2013-2017). I don't think you can find another tight end who's accomplished this. One of the greatest receivers in NFL history (his stats speak for themselves), Witten will be a popular waiver add Wednesday morning. On the flip side, continuing with the "Beware Steelers" theme, Vance McDonald is a big risk at his #8 ranking. Pittsburgh's fifth or sixth offensive option, McDonald will be lucky to rack up a 4-45 line.
Finally, an important note: I don't game predictions. For example, with Jordan Reed looking like a no-go, I won't "predict" that Vernon Davis (#38 TE) will outperform expectations. It takes time for news to impact expert rankings. We all know Davis will be undervalued if Reed sits. So there's no point "predicting" it or even talking about it.