We know there will be surprises each season. The hard part is figuring out who they'll be--and whether the surprises are meant to last.
At QB, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott are leading the way. Their preseason ADP was 14 and 17, respectively. Jackson's highest expert ranking this summer (out of 120+ people) was 5th, while Dak's was 7th. Heading into Week 3, both are consensus top-3 picks.
A common question on this site is whether to trade them away, or trade for them. The answer is always, "How much do you value them, and how much does your opponent value them?" So if you believe Dak will settle in as a back-end QB1, and your opponent wants you to give up Mike Evans . . . well, maybe it's not the right deal. But if you view Dak as an elite fantasy QB, then that swap makes a lot more sense.
And as you might know, Tom Brady and Case Keenum are also top-5 QBs through two weeks. Whereas Jackson and Dak are ascending talents who could actually maintain fantasy dominance, I'm fairly confident Brady and Keenum will regress. Brady is on pace to break the single-season record for highest QB rating in NFL history. Think about that before acquiring him. Also consider Antonio Brown's precarious legal situation. As for Keenum, five of Washington's six TDs have come through the air. Two if their next three contests are against Chicago and New England. Keenum's stats will balance out soon enough.
At RB, Austin Ekeler is #1. So . . . wow. I actually reached for him a couple rounds early in the Premier League, so I was that high on him. But never expected him to play like this. An RB3 last year while sharing space most weeks with Melvin Gordon, Ekeler is a legit RB1/2 as long as Gordon remains away. Derrick Henry is certainly a surprise at #4, while Josh Jacobs comes in at #7. Last week I warned Jacobs might lose out to game flow vs. the Chiefs. Expect more of that from an Oakland team that will find itself trailing much more often than not.
At WR, five of the top 6 were unexpected only a couple weeks ago: Sammy Watkins, John Ross, Emmanuel Sanders, Maruise Brown, and D.J. Chark. Watkins can be a WR1/2 as long as Tyreek Hill is out, while Ross is close to weekly-starter territory while A.J. Green's sidelined. Sanders, Brown, and Chark are harder sells. In Sanders' and Chark's cases, we see two sub-par quarterbacks--and offenses in general. Those two have peaked, though WR3 production the rest of the way is very realistic.
At TE, Mark Andrew is on another planet, and there's not much more I can say about that. Delanie Walker (#4) has surprised me. With a strong running game and some capable passing by Marcus Mariota, the entire Titan offense looks better than it has in years.
And for those interested in preseason predictions, full disclosure: If the season ended today, I'd be 11-8 on my annual "Contrarian Predictions":
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html
The three picks that spurred the most opposition were my warnings about Baker Mayfield (QB-5 ADP), James Conner (RB-7), and Davante Adams (WR-2). Interestingly, all three are playing out as expected--and against what nearly every expert predicted. Still early, but a reminder that seemingly obvious calls are never automatic.
At QB, Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott are leading the way. Their preseason ADP was 14 and 17, respectively. Jackson's highest expert ranking this summer (out of 120+ people) was 5th, while Dak's was 7th. Heading into Week 3, both are consensus top-3 picks.
A common question on this site is whether to trade them away, or trade for them. The answer is always, "How much do you value them, and how much does your opponent value them?" So if you believe Dak will settle in as a back-end QB1, and your opponent wants you to give up Mike Evans . . . well, maybe it's not the right deal. But if you view Dak as an elite fantasy QB, then that swap makes a lot more sense.
And as you might know, Tom Brady and Case Keenum are also top-5 QBs through two weeks. Whereas Jackson and Dak are ascending talents who could actually maintain fantasy dominance, I'm fairly confident Brady and Keenum will regress. Brady is on pace to break the single-season record for highest QB rating in NFL history. Think about that before acquiring him. Also consider Antonio Brown's precarious legal situation. As for Keenum, five of Washington's six TDs have come through the air. Two if their next three contests are against Chicago and New England. Keenum's stats will balance out soon enough.
At RB, Austin Ekeler is #1. So . . . wow. I actually reached for him a couple rounds early in the Premier League, so I was that high on him. But never expected him to play like this. An RB3 last year while sharing space most weeks with Melvin Gordon, Ekeler is a legit RB1/2 as long as Gordon remains away. Derrick Henry is certainly a surprise at #4, while Josh Jacobs comes in at #7. Last week I warned Jacobs might lose out to game flow vs. the Chiefs. Expect more of that from an Oakland team that will find itself trailing much more often than not.
At WR, five of the top 6 were unexpected only a couple weeks ago: Sammy Watkins, John Ross, Emmanuel Sanders, Maruise Brown, and D.J. Chark. Watkins can be a WR1/2 as long as Tyreek Hill is out, while Ross is close to weekly-starter territory while A.J. Green's sidelined. Sanders, Brown, and Chark are harder sells. In Sanders' and Chark's cases, we see two sub-par quarterbacks--and offenses in general. Those two have peaked, though WR3 production the rest of the way is very realistic.
At TE, Mark Andrew is on another planet, and there's not much more I can say about that. Delanie Walker (#4) has surprised me. With a strong running game and some capable passing by Marcus Mariota, the entire Titan offense looks better than it has in years.
And for those interested in preseason predictions, full disclosure: If the season ended today, I'd be 11-8 on my annual "Contrarian Predictions":
http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/p/bold-predictions.html
The three picks that spurred the most opposition were my warnings about Baker Mayfield (QB-5 ADP), James Conner (RB-7), and Davante Adams (WR-2). Interestingly, all three are playing out as expected--and against what nearly every expert predicted. Still early, but a reminder that seemingly obvious calls are never automatic.