We're almost 25% through the season. My DFS 50/50 was crushingly bad I was 6-for-8 on completely contrarian bargains and busts. And that isn't a generous assessment. For example, one of my bargains was the consensus 48th-ranked WR Preston Williams. While he outperformed expectations, his 8.6 points placed him only in the low-40s. That's not good enough. A bargain has to be a clear bargain, and a bust has to be a clear bust.
As always on Monday mornings, let's try to make sense of yesterday's craziness, highlighting each team's most significant Sunday fantasy storyline.
Browns -- Not since Bobby Thompson's historic home run has sports mattered as much to anyone as it does right now to fans of the Cleveland Brown, who are now (by virtue of a tiebreaker) in first place in the AFC North. This despite Baker Mayfield owning a 4/7 TD/INT mark. The biggest news yesterday was Jarvis Landry going off, and then going off the field with a concussion. He'll get an extra day to go through the concussion protocol (they play next Monday night). He entered the weekend 14th in WR targets and added 10 more. He remains a buy-low option.
Ravens -- Lamar Jackson played poorly and still posted elite numbers. Incredible. Very disappointed that I didn't believe in him this summer. Congrats to those who did.
Titans -- Marcus Mariota now has seven touchdowns and zero turnovers. If you're in a two-QB league, his late-season schedule is quite friendly. However, as I wrote right after Week 1, this offense can feed only two receivers per week. Yesterday was A.J. Brown's and Corey Davis's turn.
Falcons -- Austin Hooper is the #1 fantasy TE thru four weeks. For the second consecutive preseason, I screamed as loud as I could: "This guy is criminally underrated." His TE-11 ADP was plain dumb. Subscribers to my rankings know he was #5 on my board.
Chargers -- Austin Ekeler gave us one more viewing of what might have been. Unless Melvin Gordon crashes, Ekeler will now revert to the RB3 role we saw last season.
Dolphins -- One of my favorite underrated WRs this summer, DeVante Parker is knocking on the door of the top 50. Remember, he was the consensus 74th-ranked WR heading into the season. I'm not giving up on him.
Patriots -- No one can stop James White. Yesterday I repeatedly urged folks to "take the points" and start White as reliable flex option. The tougher the matchup, it seems, the more New England leans on him.
Bills -- A great effort by Buffalo, and Frank Gore once again merits attention. 17 carries for 109 yards against one of the NFL's top defenses was incredible.
Chiefs -- They won despite getting no scores from Patrick Mahomes. The biggest story here is LeSean McCoy continuing to make the most of this opportunity, with three fantasy-relevant performances to start the year.
Lions -- T.J. Hockenson left with a concussion, so that's worth monitoring. But let's be frank: This game was largely about the resurgent Matthew Stafford. Why is he resurgent? For all the seasons I laid out on this page in July and August. He was my #1 out-on-a-limb, staking-my-fantasy-reputation preseason prediction:
https://twitter.com/_FF4W/status/1164517609934655491
Remember, he was a consensus 25th-ranked fantasy QB for much of the summer. Entering Week 1 he'd climbed to 23rd. He was 14th on my rankings--a must-draft QB in every league. This is why the previous year's stats are irrelevant when viewed in a vacuum.
Raiders -- Josh Jacobs got back on track. Sell high. Week 5 Bears. Week 6 bye. Week 7 @Packers. And less-than-favorable fantasy playoff schedule (Titans, Jags, Chargers).
Colts -- Marlon Mack's ankle injury could be a big deal. He hasn't run particularly well the last three weeks and has never been remarkable in the passing game. Jordan Wilkins and/or Nyheim Hines could play themselves into more prominent longer-term roles if Mack's forced to sit.
Redskins -- The inevitable implosion of of Case Keenum. Nothing we saw this summer suggests Dwayne Haskins is NFL ready. So queue up opposing DSTs for the foreseeable future.
Giants -- I warned against Wayne Gallman and was proven completely wrong. He ran poorly as expected, but he ran more than expected, particularly near the goal line. And his usage in the passing game was beyond what I anticipated. Hats off to those who knew what I didn't.
Panthers -- Christian McCaffrey continued to destroy.
Texans -- Kenny Stills' hamstring injury could open the door for Keke Coutee next week against Atlanta. Stay tuned. And while you're at it, as I've been saying all summer, stop hoping Will Fuller recaptures the magic of those handful of games in 2017. Again, stats in a vacuum. Fuller was overrated this summer, and he continues to be overrated.
Buccaneers -- So much to highlight, but if I had to pick one, it'd be Ronald Jones jumping ahead of the pedestrian Peyton Barber. I'd be surprised if Barber out-touches Jones again this year.
Rams -- It took Jared Goff and the Rams a while to get going. They almost pulled it off. Fantasy-wise, not bad for everyone. But this team needs to change things up to have a shot at another NFC title game. In particular, whether it's the offensive line or him (possibly both), Todd Gurley is as TD-dependent as ever.
Seahawks -- Chris Carson ran well and didn't fumble. He'll hold off the injured Rashaad Penny at least a little longer.
Cardinals -- David Johnson led the way with an exception 8-99 receiving line. While continuing to run poorly on the ground, the team's finally committing to him in the passing attack.
Vikings -- It was Stefon Diggs' turn. Apparently, while Tennessee can support only two receivers per week, Minnesota is having trouble supporting more than one.
Bears -- Chase Daniel will be a solid two-QB-league pickup if Mitch Trubisky's shoulder injury is serious. Daniel is one of the league's better backup QBs.
Jaguars -- Leonard Fournette: Did not see that coming. Funny enough, he's on pace for over 1,600 rushing yards. I still think he'll be fortunate to clear 1,100 given his injury history.
Broncos -- Phillip Lindsay has out-run Royce Freeman in two straight games. While I've preferred Freeman since June, this is a situation to monitor closely, as there's certainly room for one Denver back to be fantasy relevant.
Cowboys -- Dak Prescott was one of my Week 4 busts, and he didn't disappoint (well, he did disappoint, and that was great if you steered clear). The bigger story is Zeke Elliott's quiet performance. Coming off a puff schedule consisting of the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins, his outlook gets a bit hazier with tougher matchups upcoming. "But B.J., how can you say that? This is Zeke Elliott! He rocks!" Yeah, and as I pushed all summer, he's also the most over-worked RB over the past three years. Throw out the first three weeks. Focus instead on weeks 12-16: @Patriots, Bills, @Bears, Rams, @Eagles. If you can guarantee RB1 production during those five weeks, you're bolder than me.
Saints -- Those who thought (full disclosure: I thought too) Latavius Murray would be a Mark Ingram-lite were mistaken. After an impressive opening weekend, he's been nothing more than a handcuff.
As always on Monday mornings, let's try to make sense of yesterday's craziness, highlighting each team's most significant Sunday fantasy storyline.
Browns -- Not since Bobby Thompson's historic home run has sports mattered as much to anyone as it does right now to fans of the Cleveland Brown, who are now (by virtue of a tiebreaker) in first place in the AFC North. This despite Baker Mayfield owning a 4/7 TD/INT mark. The biggest news yesterday was Jarvis Landry going off, and then going off the field with a concussion. He'll get an extra day to go through the concussion protocol (they play next Monday night). He entered the weekend 14th in WR targets and added 10 more. He remains a buy-low option.
Ravens -- Lamar Jackson played poorly and still posted elite numbers. Incredible. Very disappointed that I didn't believe in him this summer. Congrats to those who did.
Titans -- Marcus Mariota now has seven touchdowns and zero turnovers. If you're in a two-QB league, his late-season schedule is quite friendly. However, as I wrote right after Week 1, this offense can feed only two receivers per week. Yesterday was A.J. Brown's and Corey Davis's turn.
Falcons -- Austin Hooper is the #1 fantasy TE thru four weeks. For the second consecutive preseason, I screamed as loud as I could: "This guy is criminally underrated." His TE-11 ADP was plain dumb. Subscribers to my rankings know he was #5 on my board.
Chargers -- Austin Ekeler gave us one more viewing of what might have been. Unless Melvin Gordon crashes, Ekeler will now revert to the RB3 role we saw last season.
Dolphins -- One of my favorite underrated WRs this summer, DeVante Parker is knocking on the door of the top 50. Remember, he was the consensus 74th-ranked WR heading into the season. I'm not giving up on him.
Patriots -- No one can stop James White. Yesterday I repeatedly urged folks to "take the points" and start White as reliable flex option. The tougher the matchup, it seems, the more New England leans on him.
Bills -- A great effort by Buffalo, and Frank Gore once again merits attention. 17 carries for 109 yards against one of the NFL's top defenses was incredible.
Chiefs -- They won despite getting no scores from Patrick Mahomes. The biggest story here is LeSean McCoy continuing to make the most of this opportunity, with three fantasy-relevant performances to start the year.
Lions -- T.J. Hockenson left with a concussion, so that's worth monitoring. But let's be frank: This game was largely about the resurgent Matthew Stafford. Why is he resurgent? For all the seasons I laid out on this page in July and August. He was my #1 out-on-a-limb, staking-my-fantasy-reputation preseason prediction:
https://twitter.com/_FF4W/status/1164517609934655491
Remember, he was a consensus 25th-ranked fantasy QB for much of the summer. Entering Week 1 he'd climbed to 23rd. He was 14th on my rankings--a must-draft QB in every league. This is why the previous year's stats are irrelevant when viewed in a vacuum.
Raiders -- Josh Jacobs got back on track. Sell high. Week 5 Bears. Week 6 bye. Week 7 @Packers. And less-than-favorable fantasy playoff schedule (Titans, Jags, Chargers).
Colts -- Marlon Mack's ankle injury could be a big deal. He hasn't run particularly well the last three weeks and has never been remarkable in the passing game. Jordan Wilkins and/or Nyheim Hines could play themselves into more prominent longer-term roles if Mack's forced to sit.
Redskins -- The inevitable implosion of of Case Keenum. Nothing we saw this summer suggests Dwayne Haskins is NFL ready. So queue up opposing DSTs for the foreseeable future.
Giants -- I warned against Wayne Gallman and was proven completely wrong. He ran poorly as expected, but he ran more than expected, particularly near the goal line. And his usage in the passing game was beyond what I anticipated. Hats off to those who knew what I didn't.
Panthers -- Christian McCaffrey continued to destroy.
Texans -- Kenny Stills' hamstring injury could open the door for Keke Coutee next week against Atlanta. Stay tuned. And while you're at it, as I've been saying all summer, stop hoping Will Fuller recaptures the magic of those handful of games in 2017. Again, stats in a vacuum. Fuller was overrated this summer, and he continues to be overrated.
Buccaneers -- So much to highlight, but if I had to pick one, it'd be Ronald Jones jumping ahead of the pedestrian Peyton Barber. I'd be surprised if Barber out-touches Jones again this year.
Rams -- It took Jared Goff and the Rams a while to get going. They almost pulled it off. Fantasy-wise, not bad for everyone. But this team needs to change things up to have a shot at another NFC title game. In particular, whether it's the offensive line or him (possibly both), Todd Gurley is as TD-dependent as ever.
Seahawks -- Chris Carson ran well and didn't fumble. He'll hold off the injured Rashaad Penny at least a little longer.
Cardinals -- David Johnson led the way with an exception 8-99 receiving line. While continuing to run poorly on the ground, the team's finally committing to him in the passing attack.
Vikings -- It was Stefon Diggs' turn. Apparently, while Tennessee can support only two receivers per week, Minnesota is having trouble supporting more than one.
Bears -- Chase Daniel will be a solid two-QB-league pickup if Mitch Trubisky's shoulder injury is serious. Daniel is one of the league's better backup QBs.
Jaguars -- Leonard Fournette: Did not see that coming. Funny enough, he's on pace for over 1,600 rushing yards. I still think he'll be fortunate to clear 1,100 given his injury history.
Broncos -- Phillip Lindsay has out-run Royce Freeman in two straight games. While I've preferred Freeman since June, this is a situation to monitor closely, as there's certainly room for one Denver back to be fantasy relevant.
Cowboys -- Dak Prescott was one of my Week 4 busts, and he didn't disappoint (well, he did disappoint, and that was great if you steered clear). The bigger story is Zeke Elliott's quiet performance. Coming off a puff schedule consisting of the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins, his outlook gets a bit hazier with tougher matchups upcoming. "But B.J., how can you say that? This is Zeke Elliott! He rocks!" Yeah, and as I pushed all summer, he's also the most over-worked RB over the past three years. Throw out the first three weeks. Focus instead on weeks 12-16: @Patriots, Bills, @Bears, Rams, @Eagles. If you can guarantee RB1 production during those five weeks, you're bolder than me.
Saints -- Those who thought (full disclosure: I thought too) Latavius Murray would be a Mark Ingram-lite were mistaken. After an impressive opening weekend, he's been nothing more than a handcuff.