For those who are newer to FF4W, I reached out to some of you a couple years ago to gauge your thoughts about this page--a virtual focus group. The Monday morning rundown was the most popular. The point is to try to make sense of the previous day's games, identifying each team's most interesting fantasy story. Maybe it's a surprise performer (not always the best one). Maybe it's an injury that could have ripple effects.
The Monday following last year's Week 1 I warned that Tyrod Taylor's and Sam Bradford's days as NFL QBs were numbers, Leonard Fournette's injury was a sign of things to come, Jonnu Smith needed to be rostered, and Adrian Peterson's huge day should be ignored. As with this page in general, I try not to waste your time. If something jumps out that might help you a week or two or six down the road, I'll say what I think and let the results prove me right or wrong.
With that, let's jump in:
Browns -- If anyone on Earth predicted a 30-point Tennessee victory, I'll write them into my will. This contest could have gone either way until Baker Mayfield's meltdown--which in fairness, was not entirely his fault, as the offensive line let him down more than once. As all of you know, I adamantly rejected his preseason QB-5 ADP. Although it's just one game, this was a rough start for the super-majority of fantasy managers who expected weekly QB1 production.
Titans -- Corey Davis was shut out, while rookie A.J. Brown grabbed three of four balls for 100 yards. Again, just one game, though Brown's preseason hype was legit. The big question is whether this offense can support more than two pass-catchers. Yesterday it was Brown and Delanie Walker. I have no doubt Davis will get his turns.
Ravens -- Lamar Jackson broke my brain. I would say sell high, but what do I know? However, there's one truth to keep in mind: Miami is awful.
Dolphins -- They're so bad, it would take Bill Belichick three years to make them champions. While Ryan Fitzpatrick was lacking, there's more than enough blame to go around. With the franchise in complete rebuild mode behind a sad excuse for an o-line, yesterday was a reminder of why I steered clear of Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage in my Premier League draft. By season's end, it will be clear that this is a bottom-5 backfield.
Falcons -- Matt Ryan threw the ball 36 more times than Kirk Cousins, salvaging his fantasy day. The bigger story obviously is Devonta Freeman's dismal opener. I pushed him hard all summer as an undervalued RB1. Not looking good so far, though I'm not giving up on him. Talent often wins.
Vikings -- Dalvin Cook controlled this game. As my rankings subscribers know, I believe he'll be a top-5 option as long as he stays healthy.
Bills -- Heckuva comeback, as Josh Allen picked up where he left off last season. As I shared back in June, he was the second highest scoring fantasy QB from weeks 12 to 17 last season. Undervalued to put it bluntly. And I have to mention Devin Singletary, who probably became the first rookie in history to cement a future 1A RB role on only four carries.
Jets -- Le'Veon Bell is back and not quite better than ever. I warned this summer that the Jets' o-line isn't the same as the Steelers' o-line. Bell would have to be a volume back to achieve near-elite production. As my rankings showed, he's a great bet for RB1 production. But he'll need 300+ touches to do it.
Redskins -- All my talk about Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson, and I never paid enough attention to rookie Terry McLaurin. He'll be a popular waiver add this week, though I wouldn't overpay given Washington's sub-par passing attack.
Eagles -- DeSean Jackson proved me wrong with a throwback performance. Can he be Philly's #1 receiver? Unlikely.
Rams -- Some of you saw the writing on the wall--that Malcolm Brown, not Darrell Henderson, was the better backup to Toddy Gurley. As good as Henderson is, Brown's clearly now the handcuff to roster.
Panthers -- Reminiscent of late last season, when Cam Newton looked awful playing hurt, and CMC carried the team. Cam will be one of the most fascinating QB story lines all season--capable of dominating, while prompting questions of whether his best days are behind him.
Chiefs -- Tyreek Hill is expected to miss a few weeks with a collarbone injury--a tough blow for fantasy managers counting on him anchoring their receiving corps. Sammy Watkins went completely nuts. Keep any eye on rookie Mecole Hardman, who should get many more looks starting next weekend in Oakland.
Jaguars -- D.J. Chark was one of my vastly underrated WR dart throws (see Saturday's column). All the preseason hype surrounded Dede Westbrook, but Chark is arguably more talented. And how about Gardner Minshew! Nick Foles finally earns another starting gig, gets hurt, and might find himself out of a starting gig whenever he returns. Jacksonville was going to be pretty bad regardless; the franchise is better off seeing what they have in Minshew.
Giants -- Evan Engram is healthy, isn't competing with target monster OBJ. One thing to consider: he led the Giants with 14 targets. Last year's TE target leader was Zach Ertz (9.8). 7-9 targets are more realistic going forward, particularly when Golden Tate returns. Oh, and after a back-and-forth summer, Wayne Gallman appears to be Saquon Barkley's backup, making him rosterable in deeper leagues.
Cowboys -- Can't remember the last time three Cowboy wideouts posted impressive numbers in the same game. Of note, Michael Gallup could challenge Amari Cooper this year as Dak Prescott's #1 target. Both guys are very talented and are gelling with their franchise QB at the same time.
49ers -- Jimmy G.'s preseason struggles carried over into the regular season, making my bullish prediction look weaker than ever. More pressingly, Tevin Coleman's injury--if serious--would thrust Matt Breida into a prominent backfield role, while Raheem Mostert could manage complementary RB3/4 numbers.
Buccaneers -- Every preseason, I rank Jameis Winston lower than I think he should be. "With the weapons he has, surely he'll be better than this." And he rarely is. With free agency approaching, here's a bold prediction: If Winston can't earn another contract from Tampa Bay, he'll pursue an MLB career in 2020. The Texas Rangers drafted him in the 15th round in 2012. It's not as farfetched as it might seem.
Lions -- So much could be discussed here: proof that Matthew Stafford was criminally undervalued, T.J. Hockenson's remarkable debut, Kenny Golladay's relatively muted performance, somehow netting a team-high 13 targets. But the backfield was the biggest story, as C.J. Anderson nearly went toe-to-toe with Kerryon Johnson. While this remains Johnson's job to lose, it's a situation to closely watch.
Cardinals -- Kyler Murray saved his best for last, turning an absymal 3+ quarters into a respectable 308-2-1 output. That said, it won't get much easier than this home tilt vs. Detroit. As I've been saying all summer, Murray's not a QB1-caliber option--at least not this season.
Colts -- An improved running game and offensive line gives Jacoby Brissett more leverage in his second tour as Indy's starting QB. He should remain entirely adequate (top 18-22).
Chargers -- Austin Ekeler stole the show, finishing third among all Week 1 fantasy scorers. Among the other top-5 performers, three were first-round NFL draft picks. Ekeler, of course, was an undrafted free agent. Amidst reports that Melvin Gordon will return by midseason or possibly later, Ekeler should continue to be a safe weekly PPR option for the foreseeable future.
Bengals -- John Ross was overlooked this summer, by me and virtually everyone else. The 2017 first rounder was supposed to join A.J. Green in the starting lineup last year. Instead, Tyler Boyd seized the opportunity. But obviously Ross's explosion was no fluke. He has the skills to not only challenge Boyd, but also carve out a role once A.J. Green returns. Ross's major concern is drops: an unconscionable seven last year in a limited role, and more yesterday.
Seahawks -- DK Metcalf or Jaron Brown? That was the question heading into September as both guys vied for the #2 WR job. Metcalf not only dominated this battle, but he also comfortably led all Seattle wideouts in targets and receptions.
Steelers -- Pittsburgh never had a chance. While it's not fair to judge this team based on one challenging matchup in Foxborough, two things are absolutely true: Big Ben will miss Antonio Brown, and James Conner played out of his mind last year. I've harped on this for months on this page and on Twitter. It doesn't need to be repeated beyond today. Fortunately, this team's schedule will get easier starting next week at home against Seattle. So they won't play this badly again for a while.
Patriots -- Of course they dominated. Of course. And sure, they're only getting warmed up with AB arriving next week. Sure. Most notably, James White led the way in this one, while Sony Michel scuffled, opening the door for Rex Burkhead to get plenty of run. Few backfields are more in flux each season than Bill Belichick's, in which relevance and irrelevance are sometimes decided on a single play. Michel has never been--and never will be--a near-lock to remain the starter; he'll have to keep earning it.
The Monday following last year's Week 1 I warned that Tyrod Taylor's and Sam Bradford's days as NFL QBs were numbers, Leonard Fournette's injury was a sign of things to come, Jonnu Smith needed to be rostered, and Adrian Peterson's huge day should be ignored. As with this page in general, I try not to waste your time. If something jumps out that might help you a week or two or six down the road, I'll say what I think and let the results prove me right or wrong.
With that, let's jump in:
Browns -- If anyone on Earth predicted a 30-point Tennessee victory, I'll write them into my will. This contest could have gone either way until Baker Mayfield's meltdown--which in fairness, was not entirely his fault, as the offensive line let him down more than once. As all of you know, I adamantly rejected his preseason QB-5 ADP. Although it's just one game, this was a rough start for the super-majority of fantasy managers who expected weekly QB1 production.
Titans -- Corey Davis was shut out, while rookie A.J. Brown grabbed three of four balls for 100 yards. Again, just one game, though Brown's preseason hype was legit. The big question is whether this offense can support more than two pass-catchers. Yesterday it was Brown and Delanie Walker. I have no doubt Davis will get his turns.
Ravens -- Lamar Jackson broke my brain. I would say sell high, but what do I know? However, there's one truth to keep in mind: Miami is awful.
Dolphins -- They're so bad, it would take Bill Belichick three years to make them champions. While Ryan Fitzpatrick was lacking, there's more than enough blame to go around. With the franchise in complete rebuild mode behind a sad excuse for an o-line, yesterday was a reminder of why I steered clear of Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage in my Premier League draft. By season's end, it will be clear that this is a bottom-5 backfield.
Falcons -- Matt Ryan threw the ball 36 more times than Kirk Cousins, salvaging his fantasy day. The bigger story obviously is Devonta Freeman's dismal opener. I pushed him hard all summer as an undervalued RB1. Not looking good so far, though I'm not giving up on him. Talent often wins.
Vikings -- Dalvin Cook controlled this game. As my rankings subscribers know, I believe he'll be a top-5 option as long as he stays healthy.
Bills -- Heckuva comeback, as Josh Allen picked up where he left off last season. As I shared back in June, he was the second highest scoring fantasy QB from weeks 12 to 17 last season. Undervalued to put it bluntly. And I have to mention Devin Singletary, who probably became the first rookie in history to cement a future 1A RB role on only four carries.
Jets -- Le'Veon Bell is back and not quite better than ever. I warned this summer that the Jets' o-line isn't the same as the Steelers' o-line. Bell would have to be a volume back to achieve near-elite production. As my rankings showed, he's a great bet for RB1 production. But he'll need 300+ touches to do it.
Redskins -- All my talk about Trey Quinn and Paul Richardson, and I never paid enough attention to rookie Terry McLaurin. He'll be a popular waiver add this week, though I wouldn't overpay given Washington's sub-par passing attack.
Eagles -- DeSean Jackson proved me wrong with a throwback performance. Can he be Philly's #1 receiver? Unlikely.
Rams -- Some of you saw the writing on the wall--that Malcolm Brown, not Darrell Henderson, was the better backup to Toddy Gurley. As good as Henderson is, Brown's clearly now the handcuff to roster.
Panthers -- Reminiscent of late last season, when Cam Newton looked awful playing hurt, and CMC carried the team. Cam will be one of the most fascinating QB story lines all season--capable of dominating, while prompting questions of whether his best days are behind him.
Chiefs -- Tyreek Hill is expected to miss a few weeks with a collarbone injury--a tough blow for fantasy managers counting on him anchoring their receiving corps. Sammy Watkins went completely nuts. Keep any eye on rookie Mecole Hardman, who should get many more looks starting next weekend in Oakland.
Jaguars -- D.J. Chark was one of my vastly underrated WR dart throws (see Saturday's column). All the preseason hype surrounded Dede Westbrook, but Chark is arguably more talented. And how about Gardner Minshew! Nick Foles finally earns another starting gig, gets hurt, and might find himself out of a starting gig whenever he returns. Jacksonville was going to be pretty bad regardless; the franchise is better off seeing what they have in Minshew.
Giants -- Evan Engram is healthy, isn't competing with target monster OBJ. One thing to consider: he led the Giants with 14 targets. Last year's TE target leader was Zach Ertz (9.8). 7-9 targets are more realistic going forward, particularly when Golden Tate returns. Oh, and after a back-and-forth summer, Wayne Gallman appears to be Saquon Barkley's backup, making him rosterable in deeper leagues.
Cowboys -- Can't remember the last time three Cowboy wideouts posted impressive numbers in the same game. Of note, Michael Gallup could challenge Amari Cooper this year as Dak Prescott's #1 target. Both guys are very talented and are gelling with their franchise QB at the same time.
49ers -- Jimmy G.'s preseason struggles carried over into the regular season, making my bullish prediction look weaker than ever. More pressingly, Tevin Coleman's injury--if serious--would thrust Matt Breida into a prominent backfield role, while Raheem Mostert could manage complementary RB3/4 numbers.
Buccaneers -- Every preseason, I rank Jameis Winston lower than I think he should be. "With the weapons he has, surely he'll be better than this." And he rarely is. With free agency approaching, here's a bold prediction: If Winston can't earn another contract from Tampa Bay, he'll pursue an MLB career in 2020. The Texas Rangers drafted him in the 15th round in 2012. It's not as farfetched as it might seem.
Lions -- So much could be discussed here: proof that Matthew Stafford was criminally undervalued, T.J. Hockenson's remarkable debut, Kenny Golladay's relatively muted performance, somehow netting a team-high 13 targets. But the backfield was the biggest story, as C.J. Anderson nearly went toe-to-toe with Kerryon Johnson. While this remains Johnson's job to lose, it's a situation to closely watch.
Cardinals -- Kyler Murray saved his best for last, turning an absymal 3+ quarters into a respectable 308-2-1 output. That said, it won't get much easier than this home tilt vs. Detroit. As I've been saying all summer, Murray's not a QB1-caliber option--at least not this season.
Colts -- An improved running game and offensive line gives Jacoby Brissett more leverage in his second tour as Indy's starting QB. He should remain entirely adequate (top 18-22).
Chargers -- Austin Ekeler stole the show, finishing third among all Week 1 fantasy scorers. Among the other top-5 performers, three were first-round NFL draft picks. Ekeler, of course, was an undrafted free agent. Amidst reports that Melvin Gordon will return by midseason or possibly later, Ekeler should continue to be a safe weekly PPR option for the foreseeable future.
Bengals -- John Ross was overlooked this summer, by me and virtually everyone else. The 2017 first rounder was supposed to join A.J. Green in the starting lineup last year. Instead, Tyler Boyd seized the opportunity. But obviously Ross's explosion was no fluke. He has the skills to not only challenge Boyd, but also carve out a role once A.J. Green returns. Ross's major concern is drops: an unconscionable seven last year in a limited role, and more yesterday.
Seahawks -- DK Metcalf or Jaron Brown? That was the question heading into September as both guys vied for the #2 WR job. Metcalf not only dominated this battle, but he also comfortably led all Seattle wideouts in targets and receptions.
Steelers -- Pittsburgh never had a chance. While it's not fair to judge this team based on one challenging matchup in Foxborough, two things are absolutely true: Big Ben will miss Antonio Brown, and James Conner played out of his mind last year. I've harped on this for months on this page and on Twitter. It doesn't need to be repeated beyond today. Fortunately, this team's schedule will get easier starting next week at home against Seattle. So they won't play this badly again for a while.
Patriots -- Of course they dominated. Of course. And sure, they're only getting warmed up with AB arriving next week. Sure. Most notably, James White led the way in this one, while Sony Michel scuffled, opening the door for Rex Burkhead to get plenty of run. Few backfields are more in flux each season than Bill Belichick's, in which relevance and irrelevance are sometimes decided on a single play. Michel has never been--and never will be--a near-lock to remain the starter; he'll have to keep earning it.