I'll write more about Antonio Brown later this week. Too much to unpack on the first day of Sunday football.
---
For the newer folks on this page, for a couple years I competed regularly in DFS tournaments: MLB, the NFL, the NBA, the NFL, and even NCAA basketball. Won twice--an MLB tourney out of 17,000+ and an NBA tourney out of about 10,000--and finished near the top many times. With a third kid on the way in 2016, I mostly shut it down: just a couple $1 bets and 4-5 $1 50/50 contests each week during the NFL season. Enjoy earning a few extra bucks most weeks without the pressure.
So in Week 2 of the 2017 season I started posting a weekly "DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week." The entire FF4W blog stems from my random discovery in 2003 that as bad as I am at most things, fantasy sports could be more than a hobby (that year I won an online fantasy baseball competition against 330,000+ people). So since my 50/50s were working out for me, I figured it might be a good addition to the page.
Since then my 50/50's have won 65% of the time (21-11-1). I won't recommend tournament plays, because the money/stakes are too great. Not looking to help people earn huge paydays, because it's incredibly hard to get rich off DFS. In the past 5-6 years I've observed how DraftKings and FanDuel have altered their prize money distributions at the expense of you and me. The $3,000 I won against 17,000+ on a $1 bet . . . it doesn't exist anymore. They make you compete against twice as many people to earn a similar prize, or else play for a 33%-50% smaller payday.
This post is not intended as a complaint against DFS. I appreciate going up against other people. But a lot of people lose a lot of money playing it. So that's why I stick exclusively to $1 50/50 bets. If some of you bid $25 or $100 or more per contest, more power to you. But ideally, my 50/50s are like the stock market: gradual gains with intermittent losses. Play conservatively, and hopefully you'll end each season in the black.
Two final things: I use FanDuel pricing. If you do DraftKings, more of than not the lineups will either still work, or will work with one tweak. Be creative. Improvise. Second, because my 50/50's have to be finalized before 6:00am Sunday, I don't have the benefit of using guys with questionable tags--or their backups if the Q players end up sitting. So obviously you might find even better 50/50 options later today. But this is the safest, highest-upside lineup I can currently propose:
QB Philip Rivers ($7,500) -- As stated yesterday, my favorite QB bargain of the week. Barring an injury, it's hard to imagine him finishing outside the top 12, and his upside against Indy is elite.
RB Dalvin Cook ($7,400) -- Love the matchup, love the talent, and love the expected usage. Two NFL seasons undone by injuries. This is the year Cook has to put it all together, and what a great opportunity (home vs. Atlanta) to re-establish himself.
RB Chris Carson ($6,600) -- Reasonably priced. Probably will earn 18+ touches. Great TD potential.
WR Amari Cooper ($7,500) -- Wanted the more reliable Keenan Allen, but couldn't quite get the numbers to work. Cooper is a bit too boom-bust historically, but I don't see him falling silent in this statement game / opener against the Giants.
WR Adam Thielen ($7,400) -- The #1 target in this top-heavy offense and a proven near-elite receiver. With Stefon Diggs banged up, Thielen is even safer than usual.
WR Chris Godwin ($6,900) -- While I usually avoid teams' #2 WRs in DFS, this guy's hype is justified. If Mike Evans ever got hurt, Godwin would be an instant WR1. Gimme at least a 6-70 line. A score would be a bonus.
TE Jason Witten ($4,700) -- Been pushing him all summer as a crazy undervalued fantasy tight end. Drafted in the 20s, he should be in the top-14 conversation. A cheap option with a great upside.
FLEX Nick Chubb ($7,400) -- This season Chubb can cement his standing as a franchise back. Nothing's automatic with Kareem Hunt returning Week 10. But Chubb should make managers happy for the foreseeable future, starting today.
DST Eagles ($4,600) -- Monday night at home against Washington. I could have swapped in Keenan Allen for Amari if I'd downgraded here from Philly to Cleveland. Couldn't rationalize it. Philly is a perfect combination of safe (almost guaranteed DST1) and exceptional.
Good luck today.
---
For the newer folks on this page, for a couple years I competed regularly in DFS tournaments: MLB, the NFL, the NBA, the NFL, and even NCAA basketball. Won twice--an MLB tourney out of 17,000+ and an NBA tourney out of about 10,000--and finished near the top many times. With a third kid on the way in 2016, I mostly shut it down: just a couple $1 bets and 4-5 $1 50/50 contests each week during the NFL season. Enjoy earning a few extra bucks most weeks without the pressure.
So in Week 2 of the 2017 season I started posting a weekly "DFS 50/50 Lineup of the Week." The entire FF4W blog stems from my random discovery in 2003 that as bad as I am at most things, fantasy sports could be more than a hobby (that year I won an online fantasy baseball competition against 330,000+ people). So since my 50/50s were working out for me, I figured it might be a good addition to the page.
Since then my 50/50's have won 65% of the time (21-11-1). I won't recommend tournament plays, because the money/stakes are too great. Not looking to help people earn huge paydays, because it's incredibly hard to get rich off DFS. In the past 5-6 years I've observed how DraftKings and FanDuel have altered their prize money distributions at the expense of you and me. The $3,000 I won against 17,000+ on a $1 bet . . . it doesn't exist anymore. They make you compete against twice as many people to earn a similar prize, or else play for a 33%-50% smaller payday.
This post is not intended as a complaint against DFS. I appreciate going up against other people. But a lot of people lose a lot of money playing it. So that's why I stick exclusively to $1 50/50 bets. If some of you bid $25 or $100 or more per contest, more power to you. But ideally, my 50/50s are like the stock market: gradual gains with intermittent losses. Play conservatively, and hopefully you'll end each season in the black.
Two final things: I use FanDuel pricing. If you do DraftKings, more of than not the lineups will either still work, or will work with one tweak. Be creative. Improvise. Second, because my 50/50's have to be finalized before 6:00am Sunday, I don't have the benefit of using guys with questionable tags--or their backups if the Q players end up sitting. So obviously you might find even better 50/50 options later today. But this is the safest, highest-upside lineup I can currently propose:
QB Philip Rivers ($7,500) -- As stated yesterday, my favorite QB bargain of the week. Barring an injury, it's hard to imagine him finishing outside the top 12, and his upside against Indy is elite.
RB Dalvin Cook ($7,400) -- Love the matchup, love the talent, and love the expected usage. Two NFL seasons undone by injuries. This is the year Cook has to put it all together, and what a great opportunity (home vs. Atlanta) to re-establish himself.
RB Chris Carson ($6,600) -- Reasonably priced. Probably will earn 18+ touches. Great TD potential.
WR Amari Cooper ($7,500) -- Wanted the more reliable Keenan Allen, but couldn't quite get the numbers to work. Cooper is a bit too boom-bust historically, but I don't see him falling silent in this statement game / opener against the Giants.
WR Adam Thielen ($7,400) -- The #1 target in this top-heavy offense and a proven near-elite receiver. With Stefon Diggs banged up, Thielen is even safer than usual.
WR Chris Godwin ($6,900) -- While I usually avoid teams' #2 WRs in DFS, this guy's hype is justified. If Mike Evans ever got hurt, Godwin would be an instant WR1. Gimme at least a 6-70 line. A score would be a bonus.
TE Jason Witten ($4,700) -- Been pushing him all summer as a crazy undervalued fantasy tight end. Drafted in the 20s, he should be in the top-14 conversation. A cheap option with a great upside.
FLEX Nick Chubb ($7,400) -- This season Chubb can cement his standing as a franchise back. Nothing's automatic with Kareem Hunt returning Week 10. But Chubb should make managers happy for the foreseeable future, starting today.
DST Eagles ($4,600) -- Monday night at home against Washington. I could have swapped in Keenan Allen for Amari if I'd downgraded here from Philly to Cleveland. Couldn't rationalize it. Philly is a perfect combination of safe (almost guaranteed DST1) and exceptional.
Good luck today.