One of my least favorite expressions is "The calm before the storm." And in light of Hurricane Dorian, how exactly are people supposed to be calm when there's a massive storm approaching? The "calm" might reflect the air around us, but it's not reflecting the anxiety within us.
And because for me fantasy football is an escape from the real world, I'll drift back into imaginary land: These few days before Week 1 represent the calm before the fantasy storm. Saturday's frenetic pace of trades, releases, and signings (sometimes involving the same player) has given way to the NFL's final wait-and-see moments of the year.
Will Dallas and Zeke come to an agreement? Will Melvin Gordon hold out until 2020? Is Tevin Coleman or Matt Breida the Niner RB to roster? How long will A.J. Green be out, and will Damion Willis be a viable starter? And so on, and so on. Questions with no answers--or at least, answers that won't be revealed until later. It's a period of boundless speculation and hope.
I try to be very careful about absolute statements. "I believe so-and-so will be a top-30 WR" or "In your shoes I'd start so-and-so." Because what do I know? It's all based on probabilities. Good and bad luck are determining factors, as are coaching decisions and how defenses scheme against such-and-such player. The list goes on. And digging further and further into that rabbit hole can muddy the central answer: Based on what we know, this is more likely to happen than not.
So I was struck yesterday when a reputable prognosticator declared "LeSean McCoy is the starter for the Kansas City Chiefs. Period." It was such an easy statement to challenge. On a basic level, according to ESPN, Damien Williams was named the Week 1 starter. So there's that. On a more complex level, who the heck knows who's starting for K.C. Week 2, Week 3, or beyond?
I don't mean to pick on this fantasy expert, who's certainly an exceptional talent in this space. But it made me think about this surprisingly precarious period on the eve of Week 1, when millions of people are drafting teams without much new information at our disposal. So when someone reputable states an opinion as fact, it can trigger a wave of mistaken conclusions. The "calm" is replaced with a misguided call to action: Draft McCoy, because he'll be the bellcow.
It's okay for there to be unanswerable questions. That's the nature of fantasy. That's what makes it so challenging and interesting. And during this relatively static period, we need to own the unknown. Drafting Tevin Coleman over Matt Breida is a gamble, just like drafting Breida over Coleman is a gamble. Every pick is a risk/reward calculation. In the early rounds, I try to minimize risk and maximize reward. In the later rounds, I try to maximize reward without regard for risk. Others have different approaches. There are no right answers yet, because the season hasn't even started.
So the next time someone makes a subjective fantasy opinion sound like fact, question it. And if I do it, call me out publicly. Even if we believe Julio Jones will be better than Calvin Ridley, that doesn't make it true--at least not until enough games have been played to test the theory.
I'm harping on this because group-think is what makes most fantasy managers pick most of the same players in most of the same rounds. Last night a guy on Twitter picked Saquon Barkley #1. I tweeted that he might be able to grab Dalvin Cook and JuJu Smith-Schuster when it got back to him. Later he shared that was exactly what happened. Because most of us are going off the same information, so we're picking mostly the same guys at mostly the same time.
OK, that's enough on that subject. You get the idea. And speaking of Twitter, FF4W shares a lot of additional content on the _FF4W feed (don't forget the under-score symbol). So follow if you want succinct bonus content, and good luck if you're drafting tonight.
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Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
And because for me fantasy football is an escape from the real world, I'll drift back into imaginary land: These few days before Week 1 represent the calm before the fantasy storm. Saturday's frenetic pace of trades, releases, and signings (sometimes involving the same player) has given way to the NFL's final wait-and-see moments of the year.
Will Dallas and Zeke come to an agreement? Will Melvin Gordon hold out until 2020? Is Tevin Coleman or Matt Breida the Niner RB to roster? How long will A.J. Green be out, and will Damion Willis be a viable starter? And so on, and so on. Questions with no answers--or at least, answers that won't be revealed until later. It's a period of boundless speculation and hope.
I try to be very careful about absolute statements. "I believe so-and-so will be a top-30 WR" or "In your shoes I'd start so-and-so." Because what do I know? It's all based on probabilities. Good and bad luck are determining factors, as are coaching decisions and how defenses scheme against such-and-such player. The list goes on. And digging further and further into that rabbit hole can muddy the central answer: Based on what we know, this is more likely to happen than not.
So I was struck yesterday when a reputable prognosticator declared "LeSean McCoy is the starter for the Kansas City Chiefs. Period." It was such an easy statement to challenge. On a basic level, according to ESPN, Damien Williams was named the Week 1 starter. So there's that. On a more complex level, who the heck knows who's starting for K.C. Week 2, Week 3, or beyond?
I don't mean to pick on this fantasy expert, who's certainly an exceptional talent in this space. But it made me think about this surprisingly precarious period on the eve of Week 1, when millions of people are drafting teams without much new information at our disposal. So when someone reputable states an opinion as fact, it can trigger a wave of mistaken conclusions. The "calm" is replaced with a misguided call to action: Draft McCoy, because he'll be the bellcow.
It's okay for there to be unanswerable questions. That's the nature of fantasy. That's what makes it so challenging and interesting. And during this relatively static period, we need to own the unknown. Drafting Tevin Coleman over Matt Breida is a gamble, just like drafting Breida over Coleman is a gamble. Every pick is a risk/reward calculation. In the early rounds, I try to minimize risk and maximize reward. In the later rounds, I try to maximize reward without regard for risk. Others have different approaches. There are no right answers yet, because the season hasn't even started.
So the next time someone makes a subjective fantasy opinion sound like fact, question it. And if I do it, call me out publicly. Even if we believe Julio Jones will be better than Calvin Ridley, that doesn't make it true--at least not until enough games have been played to test the theory.
I'm harping on this because group-think is what makes most fantasy managers pick most of the same players in most of the same rounds. Last night a guy on Twitter picked Saquon Barkley #1. I tweeted that he might be able to grab Dalvin Cook and JuJu Smith-Schuster when it got back to him. Later he shared that was exactly what happened. Because most of us are going off the same information, so we're picking mostly the same guys at mostly the same time.
OK, that's enough on that subject. You get the idea. And speaking of Twitter, FF4W shares a lot of additional content on the _FF4W feed (don't forget the under-score symbol). So follow if you want succinct bonus content, and good luck if you're drafting tonight.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W