Frequent question this time of year: "I'm drafting ninth. Who should I take?"
Or sometimes it's fifth, or maybe 11th . . . basically, anywhere.
The deeper we go into a draft, the more complicated the answer. At pick #1, Saquon Barkley and CMC are the most popular, though some like Alvin Kamara. And if Ezekiel Elliott decides to play football, he might get some love. Picks 2 and 3 also generally produce one of two results, depending on who's off the board first.
By the fourth or fifth pick, things start to open up. By 10, there are at least five reasonable options if things play out as expected 1-thru-9. And in each succeeding round, options continually expand.
Yesterday I did my first mock draft of the summer: a 12-team PPR snake draft on ESPN. I wanted to get a sense of where my targets were falling. Where were they ranked in the ESPN draft room, and how late were they coming off the board? There will be many more mock drafts these next few weeks before my actual draft. So this was an initial test, and it reminded me how hard it is to answer that question, "Who should I take?"
Round 1 -- I was given the seventh pick in the first. DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas were my primary targets, with the understanding that Barkley, CMC, and Kamara would be long gone. Six RB picks later, I pass on guys like David Johnson and Travis Kelce to land Hopkins.
Round 2 -- We have to be aware not only of our own positional needs, but also those of our opponents. And we need to use the draft room's rank-ordering system to our advantage--while also ignoring it. What do I mean? I take Nick Chubb with the 18th overall pick, despite the fact he's listed at #30 in our draft room. There are two reasons: first, my next pick is at #31, meaning there's a good chance Chubb will be gone, and more importantly, second, Chubb is the #14 overall player on my own draft board. He's the best player available . . . according to my rankings. I have to trust them and use them; otherwise, why do I have them? My opponents surely think I'm an idiot. The next 11 players off the board are all ranked better than Chubb. But I took the guy I most wanted because I probably wouldn't get another chance. And that's how we should be drafting. ADPs be damned.
Round 3 -- Kerryon Johnson is the highest-ranked player remaining when it gets back to me. He's also the best player remaining on my draft board. It's a perfect storm of serendipity.
Rounds 4 and 5 -- Sometimes taking teammates makes sense. I invest my next two picks on A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. One or both of them will be weekly starters, and if one (more likely Green) misses significant time, the other could be a WR1. I could have taken guys like Chris Carson or Alshon Jeffery or Damien Williams in the fourth, and I missed out on Deshaun Watson in the fifth, but on balance I like my receivers' upside.
Round 6 -- As much as I want to wait on QB (it's a very deep position), Aaron Rodgers is available. So is O.J. Howard. I make a quick calculation. Rodgers it is.
Round 7 -- There are no sure things remaining. I'm either taking a team's #2 WR, a back-end TE1, or an RB with a tenuous hold on the starting job (for example, Tevin Coleman). So I reach a bit for Darrell Henderson with the 79th overall pick. His ADP is 85, so it makes sense. And he's #63 on my draft board, so it makes a lot of sense. Still, in this draft room, I possibly could have waited a round or two to get him. But there are times to wait, and there are times to pounce on a pre-draft target. Henderson is a prized target given his monstrous upside if Gurley ever has to sit (a decent possibility).
Round 8 -- As soon as you get into your draft room, read through the top 200 or even top 300 players and note which of your potential targets are dramatically undervalued. Too often managers are psychologically unable to "reach" for a player who, if valued appropriately, wouldn't be a reach at all. In round 8, Royce Freeman falls into my lap. His ESPN ranking is 127, so I could realistically wait two rounds and still possibly land him. But what's the point? He has strong RB3 potential even if Phillip Lindsay continues serving as Denver's 1A back. And Freeman is a likely RB2+ if Lindsay gets hurt. From where I'm sitting, it's a no-brainer.
Rounds 9 and 10 -- Michael Gallup and Devin Singletary fall to me next. Despite being a WR8 last year, Gallup is a good bet to be a top-50 WR in 2019, and he's talented enough to be a solid bye-week streamer, particularly if Zeke Elliott doesn't re-join the team anytime soon. And Singletary is running behind two old, post-prime backs. When the fantasy playoffs hit, if Buffalo's out of the real playoffs, Singletary could be handed the reins at the perfect time.
Round 11 -- I should have taken Kareem Hunt; this was an oversight. An opponent grabbed him with the last pick of round 10. I go with the Rams DST--the last of the available elite / near-elite DSTs. In hindsight, I should have taken Jordan Reed, Jaylen Samuels, or Tyrell Williams, all of whom were snagged before my next pick
Rounds 12 and 13 -- Kalen Ballage and Alexander Mattison. A young RB pushing for a 1A role in Miami, and a rookie RB handcuffing the perennially injured Dalvin Cook. This late in the draft, I've capitalized on two targets with RB2+ potential.
Round 14 -- Aaron Rodgers' toughest games could be Week 1 in Chicago and Week 16 in Minnesota. Jameis Winston will have two home games those weeks against the Niners and Texans, and he'll also face the Saints at home during Green Bay's bye week. So I take Winston.
Round 15 -- Mason Crosby is decent enough. I'll start the season with him.
Round 16 -- Despite missing out on most of my TE targets, several deep bargains remain, including Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten, and Tyler Eifert. I go boom-bust with Eifert, knowing that Graham or Witten or someone comparable should be sitting around in September if Eifert once again gets hurt.
And so my mock team looks like this:
QB -- Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston
RB -- Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Royce Freeman, Kalen Ballage, Alexander Mattison, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson
WR -- DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Michael Gallup
TE -- Tyler Eifert
K -- Mason Crosby
DST -- Rams
Since I need to start only two WRs, I really don't need more than four, particularly since no more than two (Green/Boyd) have the same bye week. And my RB situation is strong enough that if Freeman, Ballage, Mattison, Singletary, or Henderson get the chance to start, I'll have fantastic trade bait to upgrade at TE, or elsewhere if needed.
Again, this is a mock draft, so all this is speculation that will never be realized. But this is how I like to approach the actual draft: Know how you value each player, anticipate how fantasy managers value each player, load up on cheap / high-upside RB handcuffs, track bye weeks, embrace strategy shifts when the right players fall in your lap, and so on. If for some reason DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas had been gone by pick #7, I might have gone RB with my first pick, impacting my next several picks.
So don't get hung up on what to do before you have to do it. If you've done your homework, when it's your turn, you'll know what to do.
---
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Or sometimes it's fifth, or maybe 11th . . . basically, anywhere.
The deeper we go into a draft, the more complicated the answer. At pick #1, Saquon Barkley and CMC are the most popular, though some like Alvin Kamara. And if Ezekiel Elliott decides to play football, he might get some love. Picks 2 and 3 also generally produce one of two results, depending on who's off the board first.
By the fourth or fifth pick, things start to open up. By 10, there are at least five reasonable options if things play out as expected 1-thru-9. And in each succeeding round, options continually expand.
Yesterday I did my first mock draft of the summer: a 12-team PPR snake draft on ESPN. I wanted to get a sense of where my targets were falling. Where were they ranked in the ESPN draft room, and how late were they coming off the board? There will be many more mock drafts these next few weeks before my actual draft. So this was an initial test, and it reminded me how hard it is to answer that question, "Who should I take?"
Round 1 -- I was given the seventh pick in the first. DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas were my primary targets, with the understanding that Barkley, CMC, and Kamara would be long gone. Six RB picks later, I pass on guys like David Johnson and Travis Kelce to land Hopkins.
Round 2 -- We have to be aware not only of our own positional needs, but also those of our opponents. And we need to use the draft room's rank-ordering system to our advantage--while also ignoring it. What do I mean? I take Nick Chubb with the 18th overall pick, despite the fact he's listed at #30 in our draft room. There are two reasons: first, my next pick is at #31, meaning there's a good chance Chubb will be gone, and more importantly, second, Chubb is the #14 overall player on my own draft board. He's the best player available . . . according to my rankings. I have to trust them and use them; otherwise, why do I have them? My opponents surely think I'm an idiot. The next 11 players off the board are all ranked better than Chubb. But I took the guy I most wanted because I probably wouldn't get another chance. And that's how we should be drafting. ADPs be damned.
Round 3 -- Kerryon Johnson is the highest-ranked player remaining when it gets back to me. He's also the best player remaining on my draft board. It's a perfect storm of serendipity.
Rounds 4 and 5 -- Sometimes taking teammates makes sense. I invest my next two picks on A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. One or both of them will be weekly starters, and if one (more likely Green) misses significant time, the other could be a WR1. I could have taken guys like Chris Carson or Alshon Jeffery or Damien Williams in the fourth, and I missed out on Deshaun Watson in the fifth, but on balance I like my receivers' upside.
Round 6 -- As much as I want to wait on QB (it's a very deep position), Aaron Rodgers is available. So is O.J. Howard. I make a quick calculation. Rodgers it is.
Round 7 -- There are no sure things remaining. I'm either taking a team's #2 WR, a back-end TE1, or an RB with a tenuous hold on the starting job (for example, Tevin Coleman). So I reach a bit for Darrell Henderson with the 79th overall pick. His ADP is 85, so it makes sense. And he's #63 on my draft board, so it makes a lot of sense. Still, in this draft room, I possibly could have waited a round or two to get him. But there are times to wait, and there are times to pounce on a pre-draft target. Henderson is a prized target given his monstrous upside if Gurley ever has to sit (a decent possibility).
Round 8 -- As soon as you get into your draft room, read through the top 200 or even top 300 players and note which of your potential targets are dramatically undervalued. Too often managers are psychologically unable to "reach" for a player who, if valued appropriately, wouldn't be a reach at all. In round 8, Royce Freeman falls into my lap. His ESPN ranking is 127, so I could realistically wait two rounds and still possibly land him. But what's the point? He has strong RB3 potential even if Phillip Lindsay continues serving as Denver's 1A back. And Freeman is a likely RB2+ if Lindsay gets hurt. From where I'm sitting, it's a no-brainer.
Rounds 9 and 10 -- Michael Gallup and Devin Singletary fall to me next. Despite being a WR8 last year, Gallup is a good bet to be a top-50 WR in 2019, and he's talented enough to be a solid bye-week streamer, particularly if Zeke Elliott doesn't re-join the team anytime soon. And Singletary is running behind two old, post-prime backs. When the fantasy playoffs hit, if Buffalo's out of the real playoffs, Singletary could be handed the reins at the perfect time.
Round 11 -- I should have taken Kareem Hunt; this was an oversight. An opponent grabbed him with the last pick of round 10. I go with the Rams DST--the last of the available elite / near-elite DSTs. In hindsight, I should have taken Jordan Reed, Jaylen Samuels, or Tyrell Williams, all of whom were snagged before my next pick
Rounds 12 and 13 -- Kalen Ballage and Alexander Mattison. A young RB pushing for a 1A role in Miami, and a rookie RB handcuffing the perennially injured Dalvin Cook. This late in the draft, I've capitalized on two targets with RB2+ potential.
Round 14 -- Aaron Rodgers' toughest games could be Week 1 in Chicago and Week 16 in Minnesota. Jameis Winston will have two home games those weeks against the Niners and Texans, and he'll also face the Saints at home during Green Bay's bye week. So I take Winston.
Round 15 -- Mason Crosby is decent enough. I'll start the season with him.
Round 16 -- Despite missing out on most of my TE targets, several deep bargains remain, including Jimmy Graham, Jason Witten, and Tyler Eifert. I go boom-bust with Eifert, knowing that Graham or Witten or someone comparable should be sitting around in September if Eifert once again gets hurt.
And so my mock team looks like this:
QB -- Aaron Rodgers, Jameis Winston
RB -- Nick Chubb, Kerryon Johnson, Royce Freeman, Kalen Ballage, Alexander Mattison, Devin Singletary, Darrell Henderson
WR -- DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, Michael Gallup
TE -- Tyler Eifert
K -- Mason Crosby
DST -- Rams
Since I need to start only two WRs, I really don't need more than four, particularly since no more than two (Green/Boyd) have the same bye week. And my RB situation is strong enough that if Freeman, Ballage, Mattison, Singletary, or Henderson get the chance to start, I'll have fantastic trade bait to upgrade at TE, or elsewhere if needed.
Again, this is a mock draft, so all this is speculation that will never be realized. But this is how I like to approach the actual draft: Know how you value each player, anticipate how fantasy managers value each player, load up on cheap / high-upside RB handcuffs, track bye weeks, embrace strategy shifts when the right players fall in your lap, and so on. If for some reason DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas had been gone by pick #7, I might have gone RB with my first pick, impacting my next several picks.
So don't get hung up on what to do before you have to do it. If you've done your homework, when it's your turn, you'll know what to do.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W