Last night I kept waiting to send the latest FF4W rankings to subscribers. As soon as the spreadsheet was ready to go, something would happen in one of the preseason games, prompting me to make several more changes. The cycle continued until I looked at the time and realized it would never be perfect. Because now the preseason is in full swing, and nothing is static.
Some notable things from last night's slate: Case Keenum outplayed Dwayne Haskins on the stat sheet, but Haskins is still a better bet to start more games on a team that's a year or two or three or four from postseason contention. Baker Mayfield looked brilliant. I bumped him from 15 to 13 on my draft board Tuesday, then had to restrain myself from bumping him further last night. The biggest thing keeping me from moving up further is the extraordinary depth of QB1-caliber players.
For the second straight week, Brian Hill outperformed Ito Smith, though not convincingly. Still, Ito is probably one rough regular season game away from ceding the #2 job to Hill--if he hasn't done so already. Meanwhile, Josh Rosen did enough to keep momentum in his corner as he seeks to overtake Ryan Fitzpatrick, while Kalen Ballage marginally but meaningfully outplayed Kenyan Drake. Ballage is one of the better nothing-to-lose RB bargains out there with an RB48 ADP.
Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones gave us the Jets-Giants QB battle we've been missing for 30 years. And after overtaking Wayne Gallman for the #2 RB role, Paul Perkins likely handed the job back.
For the Patriots, backup QB Brian Hoyer played like a 38-year-old Tom Brady, while third-string QB Jarrett Stidham played like a 30-year-old Brian Hoyer. And one of my favorite bargain TEs all summer, Matt LaCosse, caught both his targets for 37 yards; don't shy away just because his ADP was in the 40s a few weeks ago. It's now sitting at 35, and I have no doubt he'll climb into the 20s before the season starts. He has strong streaming potential in that offense.
In the Tennessee-Philly contest, Ryan Tannehill outplayed Marcus Mariota in a QB battle that could turn Mariota into a 2020 reclamation project on some other team. Although it's too early to draw sharp conclusions, Tannehill is making his case. And despite Nick Foles sitting for Jacksonville, the Jags will be a tough team to trust in fantasy outside its defense and a (presumably) healthy Leonard Fournette. Underrated WR D.J. Chark deserves a better fate. Meanwhile, Baltimore's backfield will get more muddled if the formerly promising Kenneth Dixon earns the #4 RB job. And whether the #2 position goes to Gus Edwards or Justice Hill, I remain highly skeptical of Mark Ingram's bloated RB-23 ADP.
Final thoughts have to be on Houston. What a crazy day. First they trade for Duke Johnson, shoring up a shallow backfield helmed by Lamar Miller. Those following this page on Twitter might have seen my thoughts a few days ago: "With the release of Foreman, would not be surprised if Houston's actively pursuing Duke Johnson. He'd be a fantastic fit." (https://twitter.com/_FF4W/status/1158403298522730499)
Duke was an RB4 two of the past three seasons--and a low-end RB1 in the other. Owning an RB-58 ADP heading into yesterday, he skyrocketed up my draft board and now sits at #34, with a decent shot of pushing into the top 30 depending on how August goes (whether or not Miller looks like a bellcow). And this move also means Nick Chubb has 300+ touch / top-6 RB potential as a three-down back in a strong offense. He's been a top-10 RB on my draft board for a couple weeks. And if you're scared Kareem Hunt's eventual return will knock Chubb down to RB2/3 territory, consider the most likely scenario: If Chubb's playing as well as advertised, there's no conceivable way he'd be demoted to a timeshare. It takes 19 touches a game to reach 300+ in a full season. A well-playing Chubb is a near lock to maintain at least 16 touches a game--and likely more--after Hunt's back.
In other Houston news, Keke Coutee coughed up a costly fumble, then got knocked out with a leg injury. As of writing this late Thursday night, it's not clear how serious it is. But mysteriously, after the injury he tweeted that it was nothing but a "minor setback" . . . then promptly deleted it. If he's forced to sit to start the season, Will Fuller's stock will obviously spike, while TE Jordan Thomas or a mystery #3 receiver could become relevant.
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Some notable things from last night's slate: Case Keenum outplayed Dwayne Haskins on the stat sheet, but Haskins is still a better bet to start more games on a team that's a year or two or three or four from postseason contention. Baker Mayfield looked brilliant. I bumped him from 15 to 13 on my draft board Tuesday, then had to restrain myself from bumping him further last night. The biggest thing keeping me from moving up further is the extraordinary depth of QB1-caliber players.
For the second straight week, Brian Hill outperformed Ito Smith, though not convincingly. Still, Ito is probably one rough regular season game away from ceding the #2 job to Hill--if he hasn't done so already. Meanwhile, Josh Rosen did enough to keep momentum in his corner as he seeks to overtake Ryan Fitzpatrick, while Kalen Ballage marginally but meaningfully outplayed Kenyan Drake. Ballage is one of the better nothing-to-lose RB bargains out there with an RB48 ADP.
Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones gave us the Jets-Giants QB battle we've been missing for 30 years. And after overtaking Wayne Gallman for the #2 RB role, Paul Perkins likely handed the job back.
For the Patriots, backup QB Brian Hoyer played like a 38-year-old Tom Brady, while third-string QB Jarrett Stidham played like a 30-year-old Brian Hoyer. And one of my favorite bargain TEs all summer, Matt LaCosse, caught both his targets for 37 yards; don't shy away just because his ADP was in the 40s a few weeks ago. It's now sitting at 35, and I have no doubt he'll climb into the 20s before the season starts. He has strong streaming potential in that offense.
In the Tennessee-Philly contest, Ryan Tannehill outplayed Marcus Mariota in a QB battle that could turn Mariota into a 2020 reclamation project on some other team. Although it's too early to draw sharp conclusions, Tannehill is making his case. And despite Nick Foles sitting for Jacksonville, the Jags will be a tough team to trust in fantasy outside its defense and a (presumably) healthy Leonard Fournette. Underrated WR D.J. Chark deserves a better fate. Meanwhile, Baltimore's backfield will get more muddled if the formerly promising Kenneth Dixon earns the #4 RB job. And whether the #2 position goes to Gus Edwards or Justice Hill, I remain highly skeptical of Mark Ingram's bloated RB-23 ADP.
Final thoughts have to be on Houston. What a crazy day. First they trade for Duke Johnson, shoring up a shallow backfield helmed by Lamar Miller. Those following this page on Twitter might have seen my thoughts a few days ago: "With the release of Foreman, would not be surprised if Houston's actively pursuing Duke Johnson. He'd be a fantastic fit." (https://twitter.com/_FF4W/status/1158403298522730499)
Duke was an RB4 two of the past three seasons--and a low-end RB1 in the other. Owning an RB-58 ADP heading into yesterday, he skyrocketed up my draft board and now sits at #34, with a decent shot of pushing into the top 30 depending on how August goes (whether or not Miller looks like a bellcow). And this move also means Nick Chubb has 300+ touch / top-6 RB potential as a three-down back in a strong offense. He's been a top-10 RB on my draft board for a couple weeks. And if you're scared Kareem Hunt's eventual return will knock Chubb down to RB2/3 territory, consider the most likely scenario: If Chubb's playing as well as advertised, there's no conceivable way he'd be demoted to a timeshare. It takes 19 touches a game to reach 300+ in a full season. A well-playing Chubb is a near lock to maintain at least 16 touches a game--and likely more--after Hunt's back.
In other Houston news, Keke Coutee coughed up a costly fumble, then got knocked out with a leg injury. As of writing this late Thursday night, it's not clear how serious it is. But mysteriously, after the injury he tweeted that it was nothing but a "minor setback" . . . then promptly deleted it. If he's forced to sit to start the season, Will Fuller's stock will obviously spike, while TE Jordan Thomas or a mystery #3 receiver could become relevant.
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