What are we supposed to make of Saquon Barkley? On the one hand, he's a generational talent, capable of single-handedly winning games for bad NFL teams as well as bad fantasy teams. He racked up 20+ fantasy points in each of his first eight NFL games and endured only one sub-14 point performance (9.6 in Week 15). And of course, he did this in an Eli Manning-led offense, with defenses well aware that Barkley was hands-on their biggest threat.
On the other hand, as I alluded to a few days ago, he exceeded the dreaded 350-touch plateau, meaning based on historical data, he's at a greater-than-normal risk for missing games and/or reduced production.
The almost universal #1 overall fantasy draft pick heading into 2019, Barkley seemingly is as safe as it gets. He'll once again be a high-volume rusher with huge pass-catching abilities. But some readers have expressed concern that defenses will stack the box, particularly with #1 aerial threat Odell Beckham, Jr. gone. Defenses wreaked havoc on Todd Gurley during his painful 2016 campaign. So why wouldn't that happen to Barkley?
Then again, the 2016 Rams' four leading receivers were Kenny Britt, Brian Quick, Tavon Austin, and Lance Kendricks.
Let's come back to the over-usage question. Barkley had 352 touches last year. So yeah, he cleared 350, but it was close. And he entered his rookie season coming off two fairly heavy-usage seasons at Penn State: 300 touches in 2016 and 271 in 2017. Perhaps he's one of those exceptional cases I mentioned a few days ago--guys like LaDainian Tomlinson and Walter Payton who showed little-if-any effects of repeated heavy-usage seasons. On the plus side, he's 22. We saw how older RBs with 350+ touches are more likely to decline the following year.
Then there's OBJ's absence. Well, the Giants' former #1 receiver sat the last four games of 2018. During that span Barkley totaled 82.2 points (a respectable 20.55 points per contest) on 83 touches. That's .99 points per touch. In games played alongside OBJ he collected 303.6 points on 269 touches, or 1.13 points per touch. That suggests he played better when OBJ shared the field
However, he averaged 5.3 YPC with OBJ vs. 4.9 YPC without him.
Barkley remains #1 on my draft board because his ceiling is higher than anyone else's, and because (barring injury) his floor is higher than anyone's except perhaps CMC's. If he hits a wall, or if the Giants' offense is too anemic to come close to maximizing his talents, he'll be a disappointment. But for every "if," there's also a "but." Barkley comes with risks, as most RBs do. But he's too talented to pass on at #1.
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On the other hand, as I alluded to a few days ago, he exceeded the dreaded 350-touch plateau, meaning based on historical data, he's at a greater-than-normal risk for missing games and/or reduced production.
The almost universal #1 overall fantasy draft pick heading into 2019, Barkley seemingly is as safe as it gets. He'll once again be a high-volume rusher with huge pass-catching abilities. But some readers have expressed concern that defenses will stack the box, particularly with #1 aerial threat Odell Beckham, Jr. gone. Defenses wreaked havoc on Todd Gurley during his painful 2016 campaign. So why wouldn't that happen to Barkley?
Then again, the 2016 Rams' four leading receivers were Kenny Britt, Brian Quick, Tavon Austin, and Lance Kendricks.
Let's come back to the over-usage question. Barkley had 352 touches last year. So yeah, he cleared 350, but it was close. And he entered his rookie season coming off two fairly heavy-usage seasons at Penn State: 300 touches in 2016 and 271 in 2017. Perhaps he's one of those exceptional cases I mentioned a few days ago--guys like LaDainian Tomlinson and Walter Payton who showed little-if-any effects of repeated heavy-usage seasons. On the plus side, he's 22. We saw how older RBs with 350+ touches are more likely to decline the following year.
Then there's OBJ's absence. Well, the Giants' former #1 receiver sat the last four games of 2018. During that span Barkley totaled 82.2 points (a respectable 20.55 points per contest) on 83 touches. That's .99 points per touch. In games played alongside OBJ he collected 303.6 points on 269 touches, or 1.13 points per touch. That suggests he played better when OBJ shared the field
However, he averaged 5.3 YPC with OBJ vs. 4.9 YPC without him.
Barkley remains #1 on my draft board because his ceiling is higher than anyone else's, and because (barring injury) his floor is higher than anyone's except perhaps CMC's. If he hits a wall, or if the Giants' offense is too anemic to come close to maximizing his talents, he'll be a disappointment. But for every "if," there's also a "but." Barkley comes with risks, as most RBs do. But he's too talented to pass on at #1.
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Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W