Plenty happening in the NFL. First, with a ton of people drafting this weekend, here are four types of players I try to avoid:
(1) A second TE who's not an elite or near-elite TE. Exceptions might reasonably be made in very deep leagues where nearly every starting TE will be drafted, or for leagues that specifically reward TEs (such as 1.5 points per reception). But the central point is, few--if any--backup TEs ever need to be drafted. If you have Zach Ertz, you don't need Mark Andrews. "But what if Ertz gets hurt?" Then you'll have about a dozen (more or less) half-decent streaming options available on waivers. Maybe it's Ertz backup Dallas Goedert. When Delanie Walker went down last season, I picked up his backup Jonnu Smith, who eventually paid off. Or maybe another TE with a good matchup makes more sense. The point is, don't burn a bench spot on a guy you won't need, unless that guy is a certifiable weekly starter. And if he's a certifiable weekly starter, why bury points on your bench? Better to trade him for someone you really need. Basically, with the exception of RB handcuffs (because RBs are more fragile than any other positional player), don't manage your team based on who might get hurt.
(2) A second QB who's not an elite or near-elite QB (assuming one-QB leagues). Same exceptions for TEs apply here for QBs--as in, go get a second QB if you're in a 16-team league, since you don't want to get stuck with Marcus Mariota as your backup. Barring all that, in a 10-team league, is your team that much better off with Philip Rivers riding your bench while Aaron Rodgers eats up fantasy points every week? So why burn a pick on a guy who's unlikely to start? Again, if you're in a deeper league, sure: cover your butt. But in most leagues, if 16-18 QBs are drafted, you'll still have guys like Matthew Stafford, Jimmy G., Mitch Trubisky, and others offering, at minimum, great streaming potential. At most, they're capable of being serviceable QB1s. So trust that at least one of them will be sitting around if an injury hits your starter.
(3) A third-down specialist RB. Exceptions surely could be made for high-impact pass-catchers like James White or Tarik Cohen (though Cohen will take a hit this year). Use your judgment, particularly in deeper leagues. The point is, keep your eye on guys who can be a top 20 positional scorer if/when given the opportunity. Most third-down specialists never reach that level, making them droppable during bye weeks or if/when injuries strike your team. You don't need 8-10 points a week in your title game; you need a guy who can deliver 15+.
(4) A WR5. They generally score about one point per game more than WR6s. In most leagues, you can find a WR6 on waivers every single week (and sometimes WR5s). So why burn a precious draft pick for minimal added value? And if you're thinking, "Well, I don't draft WR5s," assuming 12-team leagues (where WR1s are 1-thru-12), current WR5s based on ADP include Golden Tate, Michael Gallup, Devin Funchess, N'Keal Harry, and Mohamed Sanu. These guys are going in nearly every draft. Now if you believe one of them will actually be a WR3/4 or even better, totally worth it. But if you're drafting a WR5 expecting WR5 value, you're better off looking elsewhere.
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Next, a quick rundown of recent fantasy-related news:
Jerick McKinnon had another setback, putting Tevin Coleman and/or Matt Breida to lead this backfield going forward. Both of these guys are now more valuable than they were a couple weeks ago, with Breida's stock skyrocketing. Now sitting at an RB-41 ADP, his overall ADP has catapulted 40 spots (to 110 overall) in the past five weeks.
Keke Coutee looks doubtful for Week 1, offering a bump to Will Fuller. Fuller's one of my favorite sell-high receivers. If he goes off Week 1, I'd cash out if I can get top-25 WR value for him. Coutee will return eventually, and Fuller hasn't been able to stay healthy himself.
A.J. Green remains one of my favorite WR bargains. But his prognosis hasn't improved since his July ankle surgery. He could miss several regular season games. When healthy, he's a weekly fantasy starter. I'm tripling down on the seemingly unorthodox strategy of grabbing Tyler Boyd and Green . . . if they fall at the right time. Boyd's ADP is 22/54. Green's is 24/58. If you can land Boyd in the fifth and Green in the sixth of a 12-team league, I'm confident you'll get a great combined return on those investments.
Finally, Rob Gronkowski announced a couple days ago that he couldn't imagine returning to the NFL in the "foreseeable future." That's just enough "Huh?" to make him the first retired NFL player I'd seriously consider selecting with my last pick since, maybe, forever.
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(1) A second TE who's not an elite or near-elite TE. Exceptions might reasonably be made in very deep leagues where nearly every starting TE will be drafted, or for leagues that specifically reward TEs (such as 1.5 points per reception). But the central point is, few--if any--backup TEs ever need to be drafted. If you have Zach Ertz, you don't need Mark Andrews. "But what if Ertz gets hurt?" Then you'll have about a dozen (more or less) half-decent streaming options available on waivers. Maybe it's Ertz backup Dallas Goedert. When Delanie Walker went down last season, I picked up his backup Jonnu Smith, who eventually paid off. Or maybe another TE with a good matchup makes more sense. The point is, don't burn a bench spot on a guy you won't need, unless that guy is a certifiable weekly starter. And if he's a certifiable weekly starter, why bury points on your bench? Better to trade him for someone you really need. Basically, with the exception of RB handcuffs (because RBs are more fragile than any other positional player), don't manage your team based on who might get hurt.
(2) A second QB who's not an elite or near-elite QB (assuming one-QB leagues). Same exceptions for TEs apply here for QBs--as in, go get a second QB if you're in a 16-team league, since you don't want to get stuck with Marcus Mariota as your backup. Barring all that, in a 10-team league, is your team that much better off with Philip Rivers riding your bench while Aaron Rodgers eats up fantasy points every week? So why burn a pick on a guy who's unlikely to start? Again, if you're in a deeper league, sure: cover your butt. But in most leagues, if 16-18 QBs are drafted, you'll still have guys like Matthew Stafford, Jimmy G., Mitch Trubisky, and others offering, at minimum, great streaming potential. At most, they're capable of being serviceable QB1s. So trust that at least one of them will be sitting around if an injury hits your starter.
(3) A third-down specialist RB. Exceptions surely could be made for high-impact pass-catchers like James White or Tarik Cohen (though Cohen will take a hit this year). Use your judgment, particularly in deeper leagues. The point is, keep your eye on guys who can be a top 20 positional scorer if/when given the opportunity. Most third-down specialists never reach that level, making them droppable during bye weeks or if/when injuries strike your team. You don't need 8-10 points a week in your title game; you need a guy who can deliver 15+.
(4) A WR5. They generally score about one point per game more than WR6s. In most leagues, you can find a WR6 on waivers every single week (and sometimes WR5s). So why burn a precious draft pick for minimal added value? And if you're thinking, "Well, I don't draft WR5s," assuming 12-team leagues (where WR1s are 1-thru-12), current WR5s based on ADP include Golden Tate, Michael Gallup, Devin Funchess, N'Keal Harry, and Mohamed Sanu. These guys are going in nearly every draft. Now if you believe one of them will actually be a WR3/4 or even better, totally worth it. But if you're drafting a WR5 expecting WR5 value, you're better off looking elsewhere.
---
Next, a quick rundown of recent fantasy-related news:
Jerick McKinnon had another setback, putting Tevin Coleman and/or Matt Breida to lead this backfield going forward. Both of these guys are now more valuable than they were a couple weeks ago, with Breida's stock skyrocketing. Now sitting at an RB-41 ADP, his overall ADP has catapulted 40 spots (to 110 overall) in the past five weeks.
Keke Coutee looks doubtful for Week 1, offering a bump to Will Fuller. Fuller's one of my favorite sell-high receivers. If he goes off Week 1, I'd cash out if I can get top-25 WR value for him. Coutee will return eventually, and Fuller hasn't been able to stay healthy himself.
A.J. Green remains one of my favorite WR bargains. But his prognosis hasn't improved since his July ankle surgery. He could miss several regular season games. When healthy, he's a weekly fantasy starter. I'm tripling down on the seemingly unorthodox strategy of grabbing Tyler Boyd and Green . . . if they fall at the right time. Boyd's ADP is 22/54. Green's is 24/58. If you can land Boyd in the fifth and Green in the sixth of a 12-team league, I'm confident you'll get a great combined return on those investments.
Finally, Rob Gronkowski announced a couple days ago that he couldn't imagine returning to the NFL in the "foreseeable future." That's just enough "Huh?" to make him the first retired NFL player I'd seriously consider selecting with my last pick since, maybe, forever.
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Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W