The last two months have been a sprint, trying to cover a lot of ground on a lot of subjects, while also sharing a lot of research. I'd like to catch my breath as ADPs start to level off in advance of Week 1. But unlike network television, re-runs won't cut it. ("I strongly recommend drafting Duce Staley in the third.") So today I'll share some interesting trends involving RBs. The "RB Usage" graph highlights that in the past 15 seasons, the number of moderate-to-heavy usage RBs has fairly steadily declined over time. At the same time, we've seen a rise in 50+ reception RBs.
Whether these trends will continue is up for debate. I think NFL teams are realizing that running RBs into the ground isn't as productive as it once seemed. Although RBs' shelf life is shorter than most positions, a franchise back can still be expected to carry the load for 5-6 years or more. So maybe teams are getting smarter about minimizing wear and tear.
That said, we're also seeing an increase in backfield passing-game specialists. Once viewed almost exclusively as extensions to bellcow roles, these days there are far more Tarik Cohen-types who take the field on 3rd-and-5 to provide additional blocking and, if needed, a great pair of hands to catch short passes and help move the chains.
For example, in 1980 the RBs with 60+ catches were Earl Cooper (83), Rickey Young (64), Mike Pruitt (63), and Ted Brown (62). All four had medium to heavy rushing responsibilities as well. Compare that to 2018, when nine RBs netted 60+ receptions--and five of them earned fewer than 100 rushing attempts. This shift, coupled with a reduction in reliable bellcows, has made it harder for fantasy managers to select semi-reliable RBs beyond the top 12-14.
Of course, bellcows are getting more looks in the passing game than ever before. This has become a big part of the modern-day NFL, as guys like Adrian Peterson increasingly look like relics. Elite RBs like Todd Gurley and Zeke Elliott with more modest pass-catching numbers. But to reach that next level, they both had to develop that part of their game. And it makes sense: a decline in rushing attempts over the years has coincided with an increase in receptions. Only now, many are competing with pass-catching specialists.
The second graph is interesting, because I hadn't remembered how much RBs were involved in the passing game earlier this century. But there's an important distinction between, say, 2002 and now. In 2002, 22 of the top 23 fantasy RBs ran the ball 200+ times (Charlie Garner was the exception with 182), and each of them had at least 30 receptions. In 2018, only 12 of the top 23 fantasy RBs ran it 200+ times, and eight of the 23 didn't even clear 30 receptions.
We used to be able to draft a back-end RB1 or even mid-range RB2 knowing if he met expectations, he'd rack up 200+ points. And that informed draft decision making: If you were picking at 12/13 at the first/second round turn, grabbing the 10th and 11th best RB made sense. Barring an injury, they'd probably end up with 200-250 carries and 30-50 catches. No longer. I've talked about this before, and it bears repeating: RB is the most fluid position in fantasy. With a few exceptions, no starting job is completely safe, and bellcow roles don't often mean what they used to.
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Whether these trends will continue is up for debate. I think NFL teams are realizing that running RBs into the ground isn't as productive as it once seemed. Although RBs' shelf life is shorter than most positions, a franchise back can still be expected to carry the load for 5-6 years or more. So maybe teams are getting smarter about minimizing wear and tear.
That said, we're also seeing an increase in backfield passing-game specialists. Once viewed almost exclusively as extensions to bellcow roles, these days there are far more Tarik Cohen-types who take the field on 3rd-and-5 to provide additional blocking and, if needed, a great pair of hands to catch short passes and help move the chains.
For example, in 1980 the RBs with 60+ catches were Earl Cooper (83), Rickey Young (64), Mike Pruitt (63), and Ted Brown (62). All four had medium to heavy rushing responsibilities as well. Compare that to 2018, when nine RBs netted 60+ receptions--and five of them earned fewer than 100 rushing attempts. This shift, coupled with a reduction in reliable bellcows, has made it harder for fantasy managers to select semi-reliable RBs beyond the top 12-14.
Of course, bellcows are getting more looks in the passing game than ever before. This has become a big part of the modern-day NFL, as guys like Adrian Peterson increasingly look like relics. Elite RBs like Todd Gurley and Zeke Elliott with more modest pass-catching numbers. But to reach that next level, they both had to develop that part of their game. And it makes sense: a decline in rushing attempts over the years has coincided with an increase in receptions. Only now, many are competing with pass-catching specialists.
The second graph is interesting, because I hadn't remembered how much RBs were involved in the passing game earlier this century. But there's an important distinction between, say, 2002 and now. In 2002, 22 of the top 23 fantasy RBs ran the ball 200+ times (Charlie Garner was the exception with 182), and each of them had at least 30 receptions. In 2018, only 12 of the top 23 fantasy RBs ran it 200+ times, and eight of the 23 didn't even clear 30 receptions.
We used to be able to draft a back-end RB1 or even mid-range RB2 knowing if he met expectations, he'd rack up 200+ points. And that informed draft decision making: If you were picking at 12/13 at the first/second round turn, grabbing the 10th and 11th best RB made sense. Barring an injury, they'd probably end up with 200-250 carries and 30-50 catches. No longer. I've talked about this before, and it bears repeating: RB is the most fluid position in fantasy. With a few exceptions, no starting job is completely safe, and bellcow roles don't often mean what they used to.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
