Once a year I write something about kickers. Fridays are always good days to knock these out.
Which kicker should you draft in fantasy? My answer's always the same: the most accurate kicker in a highest-powered offense. Some time ago I shared data showing kickers in top-5 scoring offenses, on average, amass significantly more fantasy points than kickers in bottom-5 scoring offenses.
This summer I expanded my earlier research, taking it back to 2003. As you can see in the graph below, the numbers don't lie. In the past 16 seasons, kickers from each season's top-5 scoring teams have averaged 45 more fantasy points than kickers from that season's bottom-5 scoring teams. I use scoring that gives four points for 40-49 yard kicks and five points for 50+, and no penalties for misses. But regardless of scoring mechanisms, the sizable gap remains. (I should also note that if a team kicker didn't play a full season, I included production from any other kickers who played for that team.)
In this case, the smallest gap (23 points) was in 2008. Why was that year an outlier? Josh Brown of the bottom-feeder Rams kicked six field goals from 50+ and 10 more from 40-49. He had only 19 extra points. That's how bad the Rams were. But his big leg elevated him to fantasy mediocrity.
Also interestingly, the most average points among bottom-5 offensive kickers was 116 in 2013. And the least average points among top-5 offensive kickers was 130. So even in a perfect storm of irregularities, it pays to invest in a kicker in a very high-scoring offense.
The other graph below shows that kickers on average have the least steep decline of all six core fantasy positions. The best kicker has averaged 174 points per season, while the 25th best has averaged 101. So even if you're stuck with an unstartable kicker, on average you're losing only a little over four points to the opponent with the best kicker.
But points are points. So what does this mean for 2019? Popular top-5 picks like Greg Zuerlein (Rams), Harrison Butker (Chiefs), Will Lutz (Saints), and Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots) are realistically safe. I think Ka'imi Fairbairn (Texans) is a bit undervalued at his QB-6 ADP. And Georgio Tavecchio (Falcons) and Michael Badgley (Chargers) are also great buys at their respective K-14 and K-13 ADPs. All of them compete in fantastic offenses, and all have proven to be very accurate kickers--though Gostkowski is coming off a down year. And while Justin Tucker (Ravens) is a perennial elite kicker (top-5 in each of the past three seasons), I'm passing on him at his K-2 ADP. While his accuracy is exceptional, I think some of these other guys will provide comparable value, and they can be taken a round or two later (assuming some managers start taking elite kickers a round or two before the end).
The big takeaway here is not to overthink kickers. Find the most high-powered offenses with the most accurate kickers, and barring a fluke, you'll have a fantasy edge over opposing teams' kickers.
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Which kicker should you draft in fantasy? My answer's always the same: the most accurate kicker in a highest-powered offense. Some time ago I shared data showing kickers in top-5 scoring offenses, on average, amass significantly more fantasy points than kickers in bottom-5 scoring offenses.
This summer I expanded my earlier research, taking it back to 2003. As you can see in the graph below, the numbers don't lie. In the past 16 seasons, kickers from each season's top-5 scoring teams have averaged 45 more fantasy points than kickers from that season's bottom-5 scoring teams. I use scoring that gives four points for 40-49 yard kicks and five points for 50+, and no penalties for misses. But regardless of scoring mechanisms, the sizable gap remains. (I should also note that if a team kicker didn't play a full season, I included production from any other kickers who played for that team.)
In this case, the smallest gap (23 points) was in 2008. Why was that year an outlier? Josh Brown of the bottom-feeder Rams kicked six field goals from 50+ and 10 more from 40-49. He had only 19 extra points. That's how bad the Rams were. But his big leg elevated him to fantasy mediocrity.
Also interestingly, the most average points among bottom-5 offensive kickers was 116 in 2013. And the least average points among top-5 offensive kickers was 130. So even in a perfect storm of irregularities, it pays to invest in a kicker in a very high-scoring offense.
The other graph below shows that kickers on average have the least steep decline of all six core fantasy positions. The best kicker has averaged 174 points per season, while the 25th best has averaged 101. So even if you're stuck with an unstartable kicker, on average you're losing only a little over four points to the opponent with the best kicker.
But points are points. So what does this mean for 2019? Popular top-5 picks like Greg Zuerlein (Rams), Harrison Butker (Chiefs), Will Lutz (Saints), and Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots) are realistically safe. I think Ka'imi Fairbairn (Texans) is a bit undervalued at his QB-6 ADP. And Georgio Tavecchio (Falcons) and Michael Badgley (Chargers) are also great buys at their respective K-14 and K-13 ADPs. All of them compete in fantastic offenses, and all have proven to be very accurate kickers--though Gostkowski is coming off a down year. And while Justin Tucker (Ravens) is a perennial elite kicker (top-5 in each of the past three seasons), I'm passing on him at his K-2 ADP. While his accuracy is exceptional, I think some of these other guys will provide comparable value, and they can be taken a round or two later (assuming some managers start taking elite kickers a round or two before the end).
The big takeaway here is not to overthink kickers. Find the most high-powered offenses with the most accurate kickers, and barring a fluke, you'll have a fantasy edge over opposing teams' kickers.
---
Sign up for Pre-Draft Top 300 Rankings: http://www.fantasyfootballforwinners.com/
Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/_FF4W
